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Convergence between the ALADIN and AROME projects: opportunity and challenges. Motivation Issues Partnerships New development strategy and its consequences A tool-box approach Towards a bit more networking. Opportunity & Challenges: Motivation. The next major challenge for LAM NWP:

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Convergence between the ALADIN and AROME projects: opportunity and challenges


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convergence between the aladin and arome projects opportunity and challenges

Convergence between the ALADIN and AROME projects: opportunity and challenges

  • Motivation
  • Issues
  • Partnerships
  • New development strategy and its consequences
  • A tool-box approach
  • Towards a bit more networking

Prague' 03 - Convergence

opportunity challenges motivation
Opportunity & Challenges: Motivation
  • The next major challenge for LAM NWP:
    • Modelling at scales where intense convection becomes explicit => dx~2.5km
    • Still a lot of physics … with some expensive parameterisation (microphysics, 3D-turbulence)
    • Really «moist and ageostrophic» data assimilation
    • Use at shorter ranges (=> nowcasting)
  • This goal is shared by other NWP groups (UK, US, HIRLAM). ALADIN is OK for to-day, not for to-morrow …
  • An internal project started at Météo-France (Application of Research to Operations at Meso-scalE) => AROME
    • Operational target by 2008 on a domain covering France
    • Continuation of ECMWF, ALADIN, HIRLAM and LA-UPS partnerships

Prague' 03 - Convergence

the political case for arome
The political case for Arome
  • Severe weather prediction civil security
  • Water cycle aeronautics (visibility, snow …)
  • Explicit turbulence civil security, aeronautics
  • Explicit convection  intense precipitation
  • Storm surges (by driving estuary, coastal ocean models)
  • Interaction cyclones / steep orography
  • Local enhancements of secondary cyclogenesis
  • To stay at the forefront of nwp

Prague' 03 - Convergence

slide4

Max : 71 mm

Impact of a higher resolution and more advanced parameterisation for the extreme Gard flash-flood event in September 2002 :

2.4 km MESO-NH MODEL

(explicit precipitation averaged over the ALADIN grid-mesh)

ALADIN-France

(parameterised and explicit precipitation)

Max : 186 mm

From the 12 UTC ARPEGE analysis

18-h accumulated precipitation from 12 UTC, 8 Sept. to 06 UTC, 9 Sept.

Prague' 03 - Convergence

slide5

Max : 214 mm

Impact of a mesoscale analysis for the extreme Gard flash-flood event :

OBSERVATIONS

2.4 km MESO-NH MODEL

From a 12 UTC mesoscale surface data analysis

18-h accumulated precipitation from 12 UTC, 8 Sept. to 06 UTC, 9 Sept.

Prague' 03 - Convergence

opportunity challenges partnerships
Opportunity & Challenges: Partnerships
  • Interactions with ECMWF is unavoidable and crucial, but the nature of the link with IFS changes (no more global considerations for AROME details)
  • We are here to deal with the specific ALADIN case
  • Interaction with HIRLAM (at least sharing environment constraints; or more ?)
  • Via Meso-NH (that will keep the key role of physics’ test-bed and of anticipation of problems for even finer scales), the partnership with LA-UPS, via GMME, will grow in importance

Prague' 03 - Convergence

new 12 02 1 03 development strategy and its consequences
New (12/02-1/03) development strategy and its consequences
  • Stronger separation between the global and LAM issues, especially at the level of physics packages
  • Reliance on flexible and efficient interfacing to avoid falling into the dilemma of killing innovation vs. being paralysed by maintenance
  • This new emphasis on flexibility and on more ‘LAM-identity’ for AROME gives ALADIN Partners a chance to converge with AROME on a far shorter time-scale than anticipated earlier
  • This might however require some reordering of priorities and some additional effort in the short-term
  • On its side, Météo-France is ready to play its part in order to secure the mutually beneficial aspect of the collaboration

Prague' 03 - Convergence

a tool box approach
A tool-box approach
  • Tools:
    • Fields’ spectral representation: global or LAM
    • Grid point dynamics: HPE or compressible (both in mass coordinate)
    • Physics: large scale (climate oriented) or fine scale (microphysics & turbulence oriented) or some partial mix (for economy)
  • Météo-France operational choices:
    • ARPEGE : FGP/ ‘ALARO’ : FGP/ AROME : FGP
  • Absolutely needed compatibilities:
    • The NH dynamics must remain a switch of the HPE one
    • Some part of the Meso-NH physics must share a common interface with the current ARPEGE/ALADIN parameterisations
    • Same idea for the AROME and ARPEGE observation operators
  • ALADIN Partners’ operational choices:
    • Yours, of course (FGP, FGP, FGP, FGP, FGP, … ?)

Prague' 03 - Convergence

towards a bit more networking
Towards a bit more networking
  • The kind of proposed early convergence has a lot of implications that raise important questions
  • None of them can be solved by a separate action on either side, if we want to keep high ambitions for everyone
  • Such an early effort for longer-term common perspectives (analogy with IFS/ARPEGE in 1987) will require some effort of each side to ‘project’ the other one’s interests onto its own ones => networking

Prague' 03 - Convergence