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Real-Time News Analytics With Semantic Big Data Technologies. Dr. Volker Stümpflen and Michael Schramm Clueda AG 1 .4.2014. Clueda. Founded 2012 Spin -Off Institute for Bioinformatics a nd Systemsbiology of the Helmholtz Zentrum München

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real time news analytics with semantic big data technologies

Real-Time News AnalyticsWithSemantic Big Data Technologies

Dr. Volker Stümpflen

and

Michael Schramm

CluedaAG

1.4.2014

clueda
Clueda
  • Founded 2012
  • Spin-Off Institute forBioinformaticsandSystemsbiologyofthe Helmholtz Zentrum München
  • Real-time softwaresolutionsforsemanticandassociativeknowledgeprocessingandanalysis
    • >40 man years R&D
  • 30 employees
  • Partner: Baader Bank AG
  • Winner Best in Big Data Award 2013
why big data
Why Big Data
  • Storage ischeap
  • Data isgloballyaccesible
newsflood
Newsflood

Millionsoffinancialinstruments

X tradersandanalysts

500.000 newsp.d.

~4 bnsentences p.a.

Fromstocksto

derivatives

Increasing

Decreasing time forincreasinginformation

Isconstantandsmall

Fromnewsagencies

tosocialmedia

channels (Blogs, Tweets)

Stronglyincreasing

news moves markets
News Moves Markets

Cluedaanalysisready

traderisbuying

Price

News reading

Automated analysis

Commercial

advantage

Time

News published

News readingfinished

traderisbuying

user centric decision making
User-Centric Decision Making

See

Concepts, relations and

events as they happen

in multiple information sources

Data

Understand

Trends, mood and relationships using semantics and systems biology approaches

Information

Real-timeengine

Answer

Questions that only specialists

could answer before

Knowledge

market moving influences
Market Moving Influences

Events

Market Moving

Mood

Insider

Knowl.

Sentiment

Information

elementary processing steps
Elementary Processing Steps

RecognizingConcepts

(Companies, Persons, ...)

Generating Knowledge Networks

Recognizing Relations and Events

AdvancedAnalytics

(e.g. Sentiment)

simple detection and utilizing of concepts
Simple DetectionAndUtilizingOfConcepts
  • Applicationsand Problems

Source : Preis, T., Moat, H. S. & Stanley, H. E. Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends. Sci. Rep. 3, 1684 (2013).

concept detection
Concept Detection
  • Recognizing the meaning of unknown words
  • Self-learning capabilities based on machine learning approaches
  • After initial training knowledge base ist extended automatically
real time event detection and processing
Real-Time Event Detection and Processing

… biglaunchcelebrations at hardwarestoreswithGalaxy Tab III werecanceled. Apple sues Samsung in Australia.Followingearlier legal disputes …

Nokia

Sony

Motorola

legal action

Samsung

NEGATIVE RELATION

ACTING COMPANY

RECEIVING COMPANY

  • Understands textual information and relations
  • Generates a semantic knowledge network
  • Identifies market moving news in real-time

Apple

Apple

sues

Samsung

Sharp

in Australia

Microsoft

Foxconn

China

LOCATION OF RELATION

Rare Earths

event determination with big data analytics
Event Determination With Big Data Analytics

Price

close = high

move caused

by news

open

measurement

error

market

move

low

Time

t0

t1

News Release

analysis of news from one year
Analysis Of News From One Year

Event Type 2

Number

of news

Clustering

Event Type 1

Optimal

threshold

Meaningful

news events

Threshold

market move

statement centric information compression and d etection
Statement-Centric Information CompressionandDetection
  • Approximately 30-40% of all newscontain redundant information
  • Onlyone out of 500 newsismarketmoving
behavioural finance
BehaviouralFinance

“We find an accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA”

sentiment detection
Sentiment Detection
  • Simple approach: Counting positive and negative words
  • Problems
systemic interrelations systemic mood
Systemic Interrelations / Systemic Mood

Nokia

Nokia

Sony

Motorola

Sony

Motorola

Samsung

Samsung

legal action

Apple

Sharp

Sharp

Microsoft

Foxconn

Foxconn

China

  • Sentiment influences with systems biological methods
  • Mood propagation in networks
  • Identification of indirect mood drivers

Rare Earths

understanding complex situations
Understanding ComplexSituations
  • Extractionfromnetworkswithmillionsofnodesandbillionsofedges
semantic big data news analytics
Semantic Big Data News Analytics
  • Big Data is a reality
  • Big Data pitfalls
    • Junk in – Junk out
    • Correlation vs. Causation
  • Combinationwith intelligent methodsismandatory
    • Semanticanalysis
    • Network analysis
  • Itworks

“Wir sparen mit der Software jeden Tag Tausende von Euros”

UtoBaader - Baader Bank

thank you

ThankYou!

Volker Stümpflen

Michael Schramm