The 2000 s the telephony decade from hell or was it
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The 2000’s The Telephony Decade from Hell (or was it?). Danny Windham, CEO Digium, Inc. The telephony industry today holds little resemblance to the one in place at the beginning of the decade !. The beginning of the decade …. The Year 2000. Life was good!

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The 2000 s the telephony decade from hell or was it

The 2000’s The Telephony Decade from Hell(or was it?)

Danny Windham, CEO

Digium, Inc.


The 2000 s the telephony decade from hell or was it

The telephony industry today holds little resemblance to the one in place at the beginning of the decade !



The year 2000
The Year 2000

Life was good!

Economy was strong, industry was wealthy

Y2K

Drove infrastructure upgrades

Nortel’s market cap was > $300B

Lucent’s market cap > $250B

Avaya spun out in Fall 2000

Cisco Call Manager introduced

Based upon the 1998 acquisition of Selsius

Asterisk was an infant – born in 1999



The year 2009
The Year 2009

Life is scary! Industry in turmoil

World economy melts down

Significant changes in the vendor community

Avaya, Siemens Enterprise, Mitel have all become private companies

And now Nortel is private

Nortel acquired by Avaya for $900M

PBX market down 31% over prior year (Infonetics)

IP PBX down only 13%

Asterisk turns 10 years old



Significant changes
Significant Changes

Big Iron PBXs are a dying breed

Voice becomes an application running on standard hardware

Separate Telephony departments are headed toward extinction

Voice becomes a type of data on the data network

Long distance charges no longer dominate the IT budget

Voice rides on public and/or private IP circuits


Pbx market share 2000
PBX Market Share - 2000

Source: Eastern Management


Pbx market share 2009
PBX Market Share - 2009

Source: Eastern Management




Industry trend data networks became reliable enough to support voice

Industry Trend: Data networks became reliable enough to support voice


Industry trend ip became the preferred transport for all data types

Industry Trend: IP became the preferred transport for all data types


Industry trend voice over ip displacing traditional tdm telephony

Industry Trend: Voice over IP displacing traditional TDM telephony


Industry trend bandwidth costs plummeted

Industry Trend: Bandwidth costs plummeted


Industry trend communication systems becoming software products

Industry Trend: Communication systems becoming software products


Industry trend open source software disrupting proprietary alternatives

Industry Trend: Open source software disrupting proprietary alternatives



It s all about the money
It’s all about the money!

Running a single department costs less than running two

Driving the extinction of the voice department

Installing a single infrastructure costs less than installing two

Driving the adoption of VoIP

Bandwidth falls victim to supply and demand

Cost To stream a movie - Today: $.05 : In 1998, $270

Dan Rayburn, Wired Magazine

Standards-based, high-volume, computers cost less than proprietary big iron

Driving voice solutions to a software model

Open Source costs less than proprietary alternatives

Driving the acceptance of open source voice solutions


What happened users seeking to lower costs drove these industry trends

What happened?Users seeking to lower costs drove these industry trends




Industry trend economic weakness driving new cost pressures

Industry Trend industry trends !Economic weakness driving new cost pressures


General economic impacts
General Economic Impacts industry trends !

Downturn in the economy has taught companies to do more with less

Discretionary spending has been reduced

Market conditions favor cost-effective solutions over premium branded ones

Economic pressures raising awareness and interest in lower cost alternatives – such as open source


Economic impacts on voip
Economic Impacts on VoIP industry trends !

  • IT spending declined 3.9% in 2009 – will we see a recovery in 2010?

  • Gartner doesn’t see spending returning to 2008 levels until 2012

  • 26% of CIOs see VoIP as a way to save money on recurring service fees

  • 70% of CIOs expect to make near-term VoIP investments

  • VoIP is the fourth highest rated investment area

  • 21% of VARs named VoIP the technology that will generate the most near-term growth

Source: ChannelWeb 2009


Industry trend unified communications adoption will rise

Industry Trend: industry trends !Unified Communications adoption will rise


Unified communications impact
Unified Communications Impact industry trends !

UC = complete communications solution supporting:

Voice

Fax

Presence

Conferencing

Chat

Video

Market for UC Products

$2.8B in 2009

Predicted to be $18B by 2012

41% of VARs predicted Unified Communications to be the area of most innovation/creativity over the next 12-18 months

Forrester Group

InStat 2009

ChannelWeb 2009


Industry trend mobility plays a bigger role in corporate communications

Industry Trend: industry trends !Mobility plays a bigger role in corporate communications


Mobility impacts
Mobility Impacts industry trends !

Mobile VoIP grows

3G, WiFI, WiMax, and LTE network options

50% of all mobile traffic will be VoIP by 2019

Gartner Group - 2009

2009 – 15% of mobile phones are smart phones 2013 – Predicted to be 38%

Informa Telecom and Media - 2009

4B estimated mobile subscribers in 2013

1.5B smart phones

Fixed mobile convergence gains acceptance

6.3M FMC handset connections in 2009

Predicted to be 27M connections in 2014

ABI Research - 2009


Industry trend voice services join the cloud computing party albeit a late arrival

Industry Trend: industry trends !Voice services join the cloud computing party – albeit a late arrival


Cloud computing impacts
Cloud Computing Impacts industry trends !

IDC predicts three-fold increase in cloud computing spending over the next 5 years

Capturing 25% of IT spending in the process

PBX as an application benefits little from the elasticity of cloud computing

PBX as an application can benefit from virtualization

Lowers hardware costs

Hosted voice service adoption will come initially from small businesses


Industry trend open source software continues to disrupt proprietary alternatives

Industry Trend: industry trends !Open source software continues to disrupt proprietary alternatives


Open source adoption trends
Open Source Adoption Trends industry trends !

Source: Forrester Research 2/2009


Industry trend asterisk remains the de facto choice for open source telephony

Industry Trend: industry trends !Asterisk remains the de facto choice for open source telephony


What is asterisk
What is Asterisk? industry trends !

  • Open source software project that is a flexible communications engine from which many communications applications can be constructed

Creative Innovation – Customer Satisfaction – Continual Quality Improvement

36


Asterisk the project
Asterisk – The Project industry trends !

10 years in the making

More than 65,000 community members

Deployed in more than 170 countries

Over 2 million downloads in 2009

Over 800 active & current contributors

Extensive hardware interoperability matrix

Over 150 apps available

Voicemail, IM integration (XMPP), speech recognition

Speech synthesis, Native Skype connectivity, etc.


Asterisk ecosystem
Asterisk Ecosystem industry trends !

An entire industry has formed around open source telephony …

Hundreds of Ecosystem members

Digium Asterisk World

20 Asterisk ecosystem partners represented

New Asterisk Marketplace launched today

www.asteriskexchange.com

Over 100 products there today


So were the naughts really the telephony decade from hell

So, were the industry trends !‘naughts’ really the telephony decade from hell?




The 2000 s the telephony decade from hell or was it

You saw your … services – then …Equipment costs fall by more than 33%Infrastructure management costs fall by 50% +Bandwidth costs reduced by 1000%and…


The power shift from proprietary suppliers to end users

The power shift… services – then …From proprietary suppliers to End Users


The 2000 s the telephony decade from hell or was it

It was one hell of a decade! services – then …


The 2000 s the telephony decade from hell or was it1

The 2000’s services – then …The Telephony Decade from Hell(or was it?)

Danny Windham, CEO

Digium, Inc.