Raising the Bar: Refocused Indicators for U.S. Government Assistance to Pakistan Prepared for: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) By: Isaac Eagan SenayGoitom SantoshLamichhane Paige Muegenburg Natalie Olson
Team Members Isaac Eagan SantoshLamichhaneSenayGoitom Paige Muegenburg Natalie Olson
Executive Summary • The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act outlined a new, whole-of-nation approach for U.S. government aid to Pakistan. • Clear, focused indicators are needed to measure the effectiveness of this new approach. • We propose 23 indicators measuring progress in security, political/economic, and social services assistance.
U.S. Government Aid to Pakistan From FY2002 - FY2010 U.S. provided ~ $11 billion in aid • $7 billion in civilian aid • $4.3 billion in economic and political aid • $2.7 billion in social services aid • $4.4 billion in security related aid
Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act (EPPA) • Signed into law in 2009 • Authorizes $7.5 billion in civilian aid from FY2010 – FY2014 • Effectively triples amount of civilian aid
The Issue • We need to ensure that adequate measures are in place to assess this new strategy in Pakistan.
How We Assessed Aid Effectiveness • Determined the primary goals of the U.S. government for each aid category. • Selected indicators based on the following questions: • How applicable is the indicator to the stated goal? • How quantifiable is the indicator? • Are there existing data, or is it feasible that data could be easily collected? • Is there scholarly evidence to support the effectiveness of the indicator?
How We Developed Our Indicators We examined those outlined by: • 2010 Quarterly Progress and Oversight Report on the Civilian Assistance Program in Pakistan • Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) • State Department/USAID’s Standard Foreign Assistance Indicators • Alternate governmental, non-governmental, and academic sources
Security-related Goals • Disruption of internal extremist activities • Increased security along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border • Improvements in nuclear weapons containment
Political Goals • Improving Local Governance Capacity • Strengthening Electoral Institutions • Strengthening Civil Society
Economic Goals • Increasing Performance in Agriculture Sector • 21 percent of Pakistan’s GDP • employs 43 percent of its total labor force • 90 percent of water earmarked for agricultural use (1/3 of which is wasted) • Improving Performance in Energy Sector • Loss of industrial productivity due to frequent energy shortfalls and blackouts are estimated to cost $2.5 billion and 400,000 jobs per year • Manufacturing and industrial sectors account for 24 percent of Pakistan's GDP
Social Services Goals • Improve Education • Universal access to public, modernized education • Construction and maintenance of libraries and public schools • Increased vocational and technical training for at-risk youth • Increased opportunities for women and girls • Increased female literacy • Improve Public Health • Reduce and eliminate major infectious diseases • Reduce maternal mortality and mortality under age five • Provide safe drinking water • Meet family planning needs
Conclusion • Limitations • Aid measurement challenges • Availability of information • Lag time in results • Clear, focused framework to measure progress
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