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Steps to Develop and Analyze VISTAS Control Strategies. Brock Nicholson Air Directors Meeting Charleston, SC November 15, 2005. Presentation. Process for remainder of 2005 Prescribed fire sensitivity proposed by USFS Sensitivity to represent BART Sensitivities for non-CAIR states.

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steps to develop and analyze vistas control strategies

Steps to Develop and Analyze VISTAS Control Strategies

Brock Nicholson

Air Directors Meeting

Charleston, SC

November 15, 2005

presentation
Presentation
  • Process for remainder of 2005
  • Prescribed fire sensitivity proposed by USFS
  • Sensitivity to represent BART
  • Sensitivities for non-CAIR states
process for remainder of 2005
Process for Remainder of 2005
  • Identify BART-eligible sources for control
    • Sources within entire VISTAS domain, not just Class I geographic areas
  • Determine possible controls for evaluating reasonable progress
    • Use geographic area analyses
      • 200km boundaries
      • Trajectory, residence plots
      • Other?
process for remainder of 20051
Process for Remainder of 2005
  • Finalize control technology spreadsheets originally distributed in early 2005
    • Determine available control options for source types
    • Apply constraints as submitted by stakeholders during review
    • Generate “first cut” incremental benefit emissions inventory
process for remainder of 20052
Process for Remainder of 2005
  • When appropriate, generate new SMOKE/CMAQ runs based on controlled inventory
prescribed fire sensitivity
Prescribed Fire Sensitivity
  • USFS provided future year planned burns by acres and National Forest
    • Based on forest and smoke management plans
  • In contrast to existing modeling setup of constant fires in base year and future years
prescribed fire sensitivity1
Prescribed Fire Sensitivity
  • Need to generate spatial data necessary to model new fires
  • Shape files provided with National Forest land coverage
    • Assume fire to occur within boundaries of NF forested land
prescribed fire sensitivity2
Prescribed Fire Sensitivity
  • Need to generate temporal data necessary to model new fires
  • Working with CART analysis and other meteorological data to define “best days” for Rx burn
    • USFS generally burns when conditions are optimal for elevated plumes
prescribed fire sensitivity3
Prescribed Fire Sensitivity
  • Originally no additional requested participation from non-USFS agencies
bart sensitivity
BART Sensitivity
  • Using emissions inventory, identify sources eligible for BART reduction
    • Apply control technologies as identified in earlier process – lowest level reduction of SO2 and NOx for conservative benefit analysis
    • Quantify emission reduction by pollutant and grid cell within domain
    • Modify BaseF CMAQ file to account for these reductions
    • States review proposed controls before run is completed
bart sensitivity1
BART Sensitivity
  • For EGU’s, propose that CAIR = BART, so no additional controls
  • Do not apply controls for non-EGU’s with Q/d <10, where Q = SO2 + NOx
  • Run BART controls through SMOKE/CMAQ for episodes or 2002 annual to determine if CAIR + BART sufficient for uniform reasonable progress
sensitivities for non cair states
Sensitivities for non-CAIR States
  • CAIR levels as % reduction in NOx/SO2
    • All non-CAIR States at once
    • State-by-State
additional sensitivities
Additional Sensitivities
  • VISTAS States
    • Sources not controlled under CAIR/BART/etc.
    • Non-NOx/SO2 strategies
    • Offshore marine
    • Other sources
      • > 200km
      • outside areas of initial interest
additional sensitivities1
Additional Sensitivities
  • Non-VISTAS CAIR States
    • 200km analysis
    • Trajectory / residence time
    • Other?
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