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Looking at the big scale Global Flood Forecasting

Looking at the big scale Global Flood Forecasting. EU research towards better preparedness for improved crisis and humanitarian aid management. Peter Burek , Lorenzo Alfieri, Jutta Thielen (JRC) Florian Pappenberger, Blazej Kreminszki (ECMWF). European Flood Awareness System.

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Looking at the big scale Global Flood Forecasting

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  1. Looking at the big scaleGlobal Flood Forecasting • EU research towards better preparedness for improved crisis and humanitarian aid management Peter Burek, Lorenzo Alfieri, Jutta Thielen (JRC)Florian Pappenberger, Blazej Kreminszki (ECMWF)

  2. European Flood Awareness System Early flood information for transnational rivers in Europe Operational under the emergency management service of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security Provides support to Civil Protection and National Authorities http://efas-is.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

  3. Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) Joint collaboration between the EC Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Aims • Harmonized flood overview information up to 30 days in advance • Decision support information for preparation actions • Provided added value to existing systems; at times the only information available Targeted users • National Hydrological Services, River Commissions, International Civil Protection and Disaster Response Organizations

  4. Coupling numerical models HTESSEL (ECMWF) LISFLOOD (JRC)

  5. From weather to flood decision support Global probabilistic weather forecast Decision support information Hydrological model

  6. Forecast peak flow detected ~10-15 days in advance SE Asia floods Sept/Oct 2011Chao Praya and Mekong Ensemble streamflow predictions Water level in Tan Chau, Mekong River

  7. Forecast peak flow detected ~5-7days in advance Australian floodMarch 2012 Streamflow in Gundagai,MurrumbidgeeRiverSource: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

  8. Summary • The Global Flood Awareness System has been set up and has been running in a pre-operational experimental mode on a daily basis since July 2011 • Feasibility demonstrated, e.g. Pakistan 2010, SE Asia 2011, Australia 2010 & 2011 • Existing collaborations: Brazilian ANA and CEMADEN, Mekong Way forward • Foster global network on flood detection and forecasting • Adaptation of the system to specific river basins

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