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POVERTY IN AFRICA. Using Systems Engineering to tackle an insoluble problem MIT SDM Program – January 2004 Design Challenge II. Approach Themes. Team 1: Systems Analysis - Communication for Education Team 2: Root Cause Analysis – System Dynamics

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Poverty in africa

POVERTY IN AFRICA

Using Systems Engineering to tackle an insoluble problem

MIT SDM Program – January 2004

Design Challenge II


Approach themes
Approach Themes

  • Team 1: Systems Analysis -Communication for Education

  • Team 2: Root Cause Analysis – System Dynamics

  • Team 3: Causal Analysis – Continental Highway Building Program

  • Team 4: Build on current programs – KRITI (Knowledge Reach Improvement Technology)

  • Team 5: System Analysis – SMART Plan(Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Result-oriented, Time-Based)

  • Team 6: Holistic Approach – Rhizome Model


Team 1 system analysis

Common Thread!

Political

...

Education

War & Conflicts

Good Government

...

Political Stability

Social

Law Enforcement

Education

AIDS

...

Health

Economical

...

Education

Income

GDP

Team 1: System Analysis

  • Where do we start?

    • Brainstorming within team pointed to education

    • Review of literature revealed govt policies, good governance, better data, “voice” of people

    • System dynamics models developed to help focus ..

  • How to use system dynamics models?

    • Concept was to look for common threads

    • These might suggest areas to focus on

    • Conclusion: good governance and education


Concept development
Concept development

  • Communication and education were therefore chosen as the area for a project

  • Concept:

    • ICT (information and communication technology) is a fundamental ingredient in the development toolkit

      • Focus on primary education, health, agriculture etc

      • ICT also enables greater connectivity between all parties, facilitating greater ‘voice’ from community

  • Implementation proposal:

    • Africa Education Network (AEN)

    • To date effort has been on development of ICT infrastructure

    • Proposal is to focus on Content and put in place the necessary capacities to manage both Content and Connectivity


Project overview
Project Overview

Opportunities

  • UNESCO has developed CMCs (Community Multimedia Centers) focusing on:

    • Radio

    • Low cost internet systems

    • Low cost renewable energy sources

  • Existing satellite coverage over sub-Saharan continent

    AEN project will

  • be a continental broadcaster of education content for television, radio, and internet

  • be a satellite-delivered content provider of educational information

  • utilize Africans to Educate Africa, focusing on garnering support and hiring from African Universities

  • attempt to create relationships with the African Union and UNESCO in hopes of utilizing their infrastructure to facilitate delivery and develop education-specific content


Team 2 the process

  • Achieve

Problem Statement

  • Commit

  • Celebrate Achievements

  • Build for Tomorrow

  • Sustain the Plan

Assign the team

  • Prioritize

  • Determine Improvement Priorities

  • Fishbone Diagram

  • 5 Whys

  • Root Causes

  • Improve

  • Design and Implement Improvements

  • Brainstorming

  • Development Plan

  • Technology Based Improvements

  • Characterize

  • Define Existing Process Plan Improvements

  • Root Cause detailed analysis

  • Dynamics Diagrams

Team 2: The Process


Root cause analysis

Root Cause Analysis

Focus on Issues Technology where technology can have an impact

5 Whys Mind-Manager Tree

Focus on Key Root Causes

Identify All Root Causes

Rate Importance and Level of Impact

Root Cause Analysis

  • Summery of Root Causes

  • Socio-Political

  • Economic

  • Education

  • Healthcare

  • Infrastructure


System dynamics short term

AID from Stakeholders

Family Welfare

System For Accountability

Focused

Training

Build Strategic Partnership with Participating Country

Creates Employment

Improved Healthcare

Develop Insurance Process

Revenue

Policies & Reforms

Provides Healthier Workforce

Investment

Infrastructure

Ability to Attend

Labor Intensive Manufacturing, Agriculture, etc.

Manpower from Neighboring Countries

Improves Access

for Industry

Industry

Access

Investment

Education

Return (ROI)

Mineral Resources

Business Investment

System Dynamics – Short Term

Identify Countries

for Participation

AID + GDP >= Dev Cost + Maint Cost + Import Costs

AID


System dynamics long term

Training

Businesses

Investment

Industry

Return (ROI)

Business Investment

Next Generation Workforce

Real Estate Equity

Est. $1trillion (1997)

System Dynamics – Long Term

Build Strategic Partnership with Next Country Group

Family Welfare

Maintain Strategic Partnership with Participating Country

Creates Employment

Revenue

Company Based

Healthcare Insurance

World Standard Healthcare

Policies & Reforms

Provides Healthier Workforce

Re-Investment

Infrastructure

Ability to Attend

Improves Access

for Industry

Access

Education

AID + GDP >= Dev Cost

+ Maint Cost + Import Costs

Teach Him to Fish, You Feed Him for Life


Team 3 approach

ECONOMY

EDUCATION

HUNGER

HEALTH

POLITICS

CULTURE

GEOGRAPHY

INFRASTRUCTURE

Team 3: Approach

  • System’s approach

    • Gathered information and brainstormed

    • Divided into major areas

    • Identified links within these areas: cause effects

    • Selected

      • areas to impact, what can we affect?

      • core issues, what are the root causes

    • Identified common major root cause

    • Solutions based upon most influence on identified root cause


Short term long term recommendations
Short Term – Long Term Recommendations

  • Short-term Goal

    • Pilot program CHBP (Douala to Bangui, 1100 km)

    • Program combines infrastructure and educational development focused on socio-cultural growth

  • Long-term Goal

    • Education

      • Ties to political, economical

        and cultural growth

    • Economic stimulus

      • Through trade, region cooperation

      • Access to previously unavailable resources to landlocked countries

    • Whole “equatorial” road (Douala to Mombasa)

  • Long-term

    • Use the model: community development while providing education to the people

    • Continue CDHP throughout all regions of Africa


Lessons learned
Lessons Learned

  • Lessons learned about complex systems

    • There are so many aspects to consider to come up with viable solutions

    • So many stakeholders with diverse values that it is difficult to address everybody’s needs

  • Lessons about Africa

    • Access to education is key

    • Politics are the big road block

    • We realized an appreciation for the Intricacies of the issues of Sub-Saharan Africa (social, political, economical, cultural, etc.)


Team 4 issues proposed approaches

Population

Social Ventures

Knowledge Empowerment

Resources

Capital

Partners in Development

Team 4: Issues & Proposed Approaches

Solution


Sub saharan africa approaches
Sub-Saharan Africa: Approaches

  • No radical measures

    • Do not rock the boat too much

    • Build on the good work

    • Drastic intervention is often counterproductive

  • Identify existing successful projects and amplify their effect using the right technologies

  • KRITI is our alternative solution to accomplish the above


Poverty in africa

The KRITI Project KRITI: Knowledge Reach Improvement Technology Initiative

  • Build alternative education & knowledge delivery mechanisms

  • Develop “knowledgebase” of information with the help of aid organizations

  • Leverage technology as a means to be more efficient in development efforts

  • Very low barrier-to-entry in terms of costs & skills

  • Apply concepts of “knowledge-web”


Team 5 approach smart

Concept

Strategy

Execution

Team 5: Approach - SMART

I. Framework

POVERTY

IMMEDIATE NEEDS

SUSTAINABLE

AID

Humanitarian

Development

Monitoring System

CC Matrix

Coordination System

Decomposition Model

Stakeholder Model

IMPLEMENTATION

(Tech, Non-Tech.)


Poverty in africa

Concept

Strategy

Execution

II. CC Matrix


Poverty in africa

Concept

Strategy

Execution

II. C. …contd.

(Scatter-gram)

Selection

Path


Poverty in africa

Concept

Strategy

Execution

Start

3 years

5 years

3yr. - 10%

5yr. - 30%

Stirling Engine

Gravel-surface Roads

Butane

III. 3 year and 5 year Plan

(Power Supply + Road)

STAKEHOLDERS

  • Burkina Faso Govt.

    • Expand national campaign to promote the use of Butane

  • International Cooperation

    • Donate used portable Butane containers

    • Pay for transportation to BF

  • World Organizations

    - Coordinate efforts to provide used portable Butane containers

STAKEHOLDERS

  • Burkina Faso Govt.

    • Formulate policy on infrastructure with prioritization on road constructions in areas where Butane is promoted as an alternative energy source

  • International Cooperation

    • Provide support on the application of labor-based method in road construction

STAKEHOLDERS

  • Burkina Faso Govt.

    • Promote use of Stirling Engines

  • International Cooperation

    • Subsidize development and deployment costs of Stirling Engines

  • Local Administration

    - Substitute Stirling Engines for Classical Engines to produce electricity


Team 6 the rhizome group
Team 6: The Rhizome Group

What We Believe:

We believe that an integrated solution, based on a holistic examination of the complete system, is required to resolve the “poverty” issue in Sub-Saharan Africa

Our Mission:

To enable the transition of a group from an unstable socioeconomic state to a developing, learning, and self sustaining state by planning, and implementing highly customized and integrated solutions.


Poverty in africa

Increase Life

Expectancy

Decrease Poverty

Economic Growth

Promote

Entrepreneurship

Health Care

Industry

Development

Human

Development

Infrastructure

Government

Policy

Economic

Stability

Foreign Investors

Agriculture

Education

Social Services

Increase Employment

Privatize Economy

Stabilize Economy

The Rhizome Model


Rhizome implementation process nigeria example

Government Policies

Rhizome

Implementation

Focused

Research

Customized

Plan

Rhizome Implementation ProcessNigeria example

Research

De-scope

  • Initial Layer

    • Government Policy Reform

  • Second Layer

    • Utilize Petroleum

    • Advance Agriculture

    • Improve Infrastructure

  • Transition Layer

    • Improve Health

    • Advance Education

    • Advance Human Rights

    • BOT (Build - Own/Operate -Transfer)

  • Mitigation Layer

    • Adjustments due to transient circumstances

Reaction of Surrounding Countries

Infrastructure

External

Health

Education

Internal

Agriculture

Petroleum

Social Equality


What did we learn
What did we learn?

  • The system is very complex

    • no simple solutions

    • Difficult to predict affect of interventions

  • Development must try to affect all areas together

    • education, health, policies, economic growth etc

  • Development requires

    • Lots of NGOs, local civil society organizations

    • Lots of communication between everyone!

    • Common measures of poverty => MDG indicators!

    • Adaptability – listen to people, adapt accordingly

  • ICTs will play a major role in education and empowering people to help themselves and provide feedback to help steer development

  • We have a better respect for NGOs and their challenges!


Summary and lessons learned

  • Summary

  • There is no golden bullet, the problem is not a technical one

  • The dynamics of the system is the most important aspect for any solution

  • Must negotiate commitment for the change from all the stakeholders

    • Government

    • Grass Roots

    • Investment community

    • AID associations

  • Application of Technology is only a product of the process

    • Solutions will be different in each county

    • Sticking to a disciplined process will allow the freedom for change

  • Short Term: Use Industry and AID to spin up dynamics

  • Long Term: Manage a stable economy allowing removal of AID

  • Lessons Learned

    • Not a two week problem – too long a history to be understood

    • Dynamics are incredibly complicated and diverse

    • Need to implement change taking into account the politics, culture, and structure. One aspect in isolation is not enough.

    • Complex Systems Dynamics (like Africa) can not be viewed in a single shot

Summary and Lessons Learned