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BMP-Based Target Setting

BMP-Based Target Setting. Presented by DWR at U4 Technical Subcommittee Meeting on August 25, 2010. Baseline and Targets. Statewide baseline estimated by 20x2020 report 192 GPCD Required target, 80% of baseline 154 GPCD Reduction required by 2020 38 GPCD. Why BMP-Based Targets?.

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BMP-Based Target Setting

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  1. BMP-Based Target Setting Presented by DWR at U4 Technical Subcommittee Meeting on August 25, 2010

  2. Baseline and Targets • Statewide baseline estimated by 20x2020 report • 192 GPCD • Required target, 80% of baseline • 154 GPCD • Reduction required by 2020 • 38 GPCD

  3. Why BMP-Based Targets? • Takes into account • Prior conservation • Population density and weather • CII intensity • Unaccounted for water • Savings data available from the 20x2020 study to design the approach and ascertain statewide savings

  4. Objectives of the 20x2020 Study • Assess whether California can achieve a 20% reduction in per-capita use by 2020 • Identify the mix of measures and approaches required to reach above goal • The study goes beyond BMPs to identify potential sources of savings

  5. Sources of Savings in the 20x2020 Study • Water Use Efficiency Comprehensive Evaluation (WUECE) used to develop savings estimates • Savings under Basic Measures capture • plumbing codes, cost-effective and grant funded BMPs, their interactive effect, plus ET controllers • Savings under Additional Measures capture • Impact of exceeding BMP coverage goals • Lower levels of unaccounted for water • Irrigation restrictions • Recycling and CII PBMPs

  6. Table 7 From 20x2020 Report

  7. Our Approach to the Problem • Identify BMPs that are easily quantifiable • or simplify the quantification method relative to what was used in the WUECE • Assess whether selected BMPs achieve the 20% savings goal by 2020 • If not, evaluate the impact of Additional Measures • Develop an overall scaling factor to ensure state reaches its mandated goal

  8. Exploratory Analyses Suggest… • Models and data exist to quantify the impact of most BMPs • CII savings will be quantified as 10% of baseline CII GPCD. WUECE’s methods were more complex • Increasing coverage goals in some instances is desirable • It raises savings, preserves equity, and simplifies the calculation methodology

  9. Components of the Savings Calculation • BMP 1.2 Water Loss Control • Savings shall be calculated on the basis of reaching a loss goal <=40 gals/conn/day (from Additional Measures in the 20x2020 report) • BMP 1.3 Metering • Assume all urban connections are metered prior to 2020: savings 20% of pre-metered use • BMP 3.1 Residential Assistance Program • Estimate savings potential without including LF showerheads in the calculation: 8.8-21 gpd (mf/sf) at 15% decay

  10. Components of the Savings Calculation • BMP 3.2 Residential Landscape Surveys • Evaluate savings potential per the MOU: 15% savings at 10% annual decay • BMP 3.3 High Efficiency Clothes Washers • 14.4 gpd savings; washer life 14 years; 10% freeridership • BMP 3.4 WSS toilets • Savings depends on toilet type, program type, and location: see BMP database document

  11. Components of the Savings Calculation • BMP 4 Commercial, Institutional, Industrial • Estimate savings as 10% of baseline CII GPCD • BMP 5.1 Water budgets for dedicated irrigation • Evaluate savings potential per the MOU: 19% savings at 10% annual decay • BMP 5.2 Landscape surveys for mixed use CII accounts • Captured in BMP 4

  12. Components of the Savings Calculation • For WSS, CII urinals, LF showerheads and HE clothes washers calculate savings potential based on assumed 2020 saturation goals • Saturation of 3.5 (or greater) g.p.f. toilets <= 5% by 2020 • Saturation of non-efficient CII urinals <= 5% • Saturation of non-LF showerheads <= 5% • Saturation of (WF=6) HE clothes washers >= 85%

  13. Model and Data Requirements • Models to estimate saturation rate of residential and CII WSS, LF showerheads, urinals and HE clothes washers at midpoint of baseline already exist • These models factor in the effect of plumbing codes and past active programs • Unit savings assumptions from the MOU • Data and methods already exist in the MOU for evaluating the remaining BMPs

  14. How Does the Approach Work Statewide • The 20x2020 models suggest that our calculation approach reduces 2020 usage by 36 GPCD • This is after including a correction for the simplified CII savings methodology we are proposing relative to the WUECE • The target derived from the proposed calculations would be further lowered by 2 GPCD to ensure state reaches its goal

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