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Welcome to NELD Seminar 3:. Leading for Creative and Visionary Change. Mapping the Future: Cartography or Carte Blanche?. Natalie Schoch Natalie.schoch@kellogg.com. The Future: Exploring or Creating?. Agenda. Thinking about the future A systems approach Trends to consider for:

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welcome to neld seminar 3

Welcome to NELD Seminar 3:

Leading for Creative

and Visionary Change

mapping the future cartography or carte blanche

Mapping the Future:Cartography or Carte Blanche?

Natalie Schoch

Natalie.schoch@kellogg.com

agenda

The Future:

Exploring or

Creating?

Agenda
  • Thinking about the future
    • A systems approach
  • Trends to consider for:
    • Future Policy Making
    • Future Practice
    • Future Research
the future
“The” Future

Infinite Futures

paradox of time
Paradox of Time
  • The Past--No longer exists and can’t be changed but is all we know
  • The Present--Instantaneous boundary between the past and future
  • The Future--Has never existed but is all we have left

Source: Edward Cornish, Futurist, Jul-Aug 2001

futures framework

Look for

weak signals

Futures Framework

Beware of

Wildcards

Build

Mental Maps

Look for Patterns

and Discontinuities

Challenge Assumptions

Better Decisions

remember this about maps
If you get the facts wrong, you get the map wrong

If you get the map wrong, you do the wrong things

It’s really hard to change the map.

Remember this about Maps
getting the map wrong

“Great companies

can fail precisely

because they do

everything right”

Getting the Map Wrong

The Innovator’s Dilemma

Clay Christensen, Harvard Business School Press, 1997

the setting for change

The future is uncharted territory

The past is

home sweet home

The present is putting out fires

The Setting for Change
the innovator s dilemma
The Innovator’s Dilemma

?

?

?

?

?

The Managers

The Scientists

getting the map right

Trends/Futures World

Systems Thinking,

The “Big Picture,”

(Avoiding the “Logic of Failure”)

STEEP

Social

Political

The Food

Industry

Kellogg

Technical

Economic

Environmental

Over a longer time frame than is

typically considered

Getting the Map Right
who draws the map is critical

Taking a systems

approach helps

identify

stakeholders

The End of Shareholder Value

Allen Kennedy,Perseus Press, 2000

Who Draws the Map Is Critical
successful change initiatives

Personal Results

Organizational

Results

Networks of

Committed People

Successful Change Initiatives

Context of Limits

The Fifth Discipline

Peter Senge, Doubleday, 1990

drawing the map

Scenario Planning

as a systems tool

for thinking about

the future

The Art of the Long View

Peter Schwartz, Doubleday, 1996

Drawing the Map
drawing the map scenarios

Yes

Issues Problems

Good

Bad

No

Drawing the Map: Scenarios
  • Focal Issue
  • List of variables
  • Decide two most important and most uncertain
  • Create scenarios (with catchy titles)
  • Monitor and watch for guideposts
rural summit scenario

“Virtual”

Global Village

Big Winners,

Big Losers

Free trade

Technology dependent

Community

as Place

Tug-of-War

Competitive Communities

Subsidies for Individuals

Civic Entrepreneurs and

economic diversity

Rural Summit Scenario

Global

People-Driven

Market-Driven

Local

trends

Try to challenge some assumptions

Trends
  • Globalization
  • Demographic
  • Lifestyles
  • Technology
  • Environment
globalization
Globalization

Driven by:

Democratization of

technology

finance

information

Integrated

Economies

Politics

Cultures

Implications: Expanded markets Consolidation, Alliances, Partnerships

Superpowers: Countries Companies

Super-empowered individuals

Thomas Friedman, Lexus and the Olive Tree, 1999

indicators of progress
What Indicators of Progress should we use?

Economic only

Add social and environmental factors, sustainability, livability (Triple Bottom Line)

Indicators of Progress
jihad vs mcworld
McWorld

Market-driven economic totalism

Global emphasis

Greed

People are consumers

Westernization (americanization) via media and “infectious videology”

Jihad

Any religious fundamentalism

Local emphasis

Fear

People are family or the enemy

Anti-western, anti modern

Jihad vs. McWorld

Benjamin Barber, U of MD, 1995

jihad vs mcworld1

In 1991, in only two of 22 countries the top grossing

film was domestic. All the rest were US films.

In 10 of these 22 countries,

NO domestic films made the top 10 for that year.

All were from the US.

Countries included: Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Chile, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, Germany, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Netherlands, Mexico, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Jihad vs. McWorld
which world

McWorld—Hollywood, videogames, greed and fast food? Me replaces we.

Jihad—Anti-modern, religion-based tribes?

Democracy—liberty, freedom, and concern for the public good?

Which World?
new world

Erosion of social capital

Economy of the “better deal”

New World
demographics and lifestyles

Time Famine

  • Urbanization and suburbanization
  • Information and technology explosion

Stress Less

Demographics and Lifestyles
demographics and lifestyles1

Economic prosperity—real and perceived

  • Aging society
  • Immigration and diversity

US in 2010

Demographics and Lifestyles
technology
Technology

Honda Insight

Smart Potato

Toyota Prius

Intelligent Transportation

Systems

agriculture and environment
Agriculture and Environment
  • Decade of public acceptance of Global Warming
  • Water concerns are mounting
  • Recognizing urban and rural issues are intertwined (livability and sustainability)
  • Learn from our mistakes (e.g. wetlands policy; public v. private investments)
  • Rethinking energy policies
  • Food safety and security
slide29

We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children

Native American Proverb

digging deeper
Digging Deeper
  • Coates, Joseph. Wild ideas for future cities. The Bridge. 1999
  • Coates, Joseph, John Mahaffie and Andy Hine. 2025. Oak Hill. 1996
  • Coates, Joseph. What is a public policy issue? Interdisciplinary Science Reviews. 1979
  • Friedman, Thomas L. The Lexus and the Olive Tree. Anchor Books, 2000
  • Hamel, Gary and CK Prahalad. Competing for the Future. Harvard. 1996
  • Hamel, Gary. Leading the Revolution. Harvard. 2000
  • Korten, David. The Post-Corporate World. Kumarian Press. 2000
  • Lash, Jonathon. Sustainable future communities. The Bridge. 1999
  • Matathia, Ira and Marian Salzman. Next. Overlook Books. 1999
  • Mazarr, Michael. Global Trends 2005: An owners manual for the next decade. St. Martin’s. 1999
  • Putnam, Robert. Bowling Alone. Simon & Schuster. 2000.
  • Reich, Robert. The Future of Success, Vintage Books. 2000.