climate water and agriculture impacts and adaptation in africa l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts and adaptation in Africa PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts and adaptation in Africa

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 12

Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts and adaptation in Africa - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 92 Views
  • Uploaded on

Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts and adaptation in Africa. Core funding from GEF plus complementary funding from others (WBI Finish Trust, NOAA, CEEPA McArthur, WB ARD, IWMI, FAO) 2002 - 2005 WWW.CEEPA.CO.ZA/CLIMATE CHANGE EEE Program Seminar, ICTP June 10, 2003 Rashid Hassan, CEEPA.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts and adaptation in Africa' - delilah


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
climate water and agriculture impacts and adaptation in africa

Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts and adaptation in Africa

Core funding from GEF plus complementary funding from others (WBI Finish Trust, NOAA, CEEPA McArthur, WB ARD, IWMI, FAO)

2002 - 2005

WWW.CEEPA.CO.ZA/CLIMATE CHANGE

EEE Program Seminar, ICTP June 10, 2003

Rashid Hassan, CEEPA

motivation
Motivation
  • Agro-ecosystems in Africa – most vulnerable to climate change (CC)
    • Climate already hot in most parts of Africa
      • productivity decline with warming - crop yields
      • More pressure:
        • Higher demand for land conversion
        • More water for irrigation
        • Increased intensification (pollution, erosion, etc.)
        • Introduction of GM plants and animals (biodiversity)
    • High dependence on agriculture – livelihoods
    • Low ability of African farmers to adapt
      • Limited access to capital and technological options
      • Poor public infrastructure (roads, information, research, extension)
objectives
Objectives
  • Improve the capacity of research and policy in participating countries and the region to:
    • Assess the impacts of CC on agro-ecosyst.
    • Evaluate alternative adaptation options
  • Generate improved information and knowledge on impacts of CC and possible options for adaptation
scope
Scope
  • Covers 11 countries from north, south, east and west Africa
    • Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe (work began in 8)
  • Involves collaboration with a number of institutions on country level and regional analyses
  • IWMI, FAO, YALE working with multidisciplinary country teams
approach and methods
Approach and Methods
  • Three approaches integrated:
    • Ricardian approach to economic impact assessment
    • River basin hydrology models for assessing impacts on runoff and availability of water
    • Crop-water response simulation models for assessing the biological impacts (crop yields)
the ricardian approach 1
The Ricardian Approach 1
  • Based on the hypothesis that impacts of changes in climate attributes (temperature, rainfall) like other long-term economic phenomena are capitalized in land values
  • CC affects crop yields and hence farm revenues capitalized in land value changes over time (present value of the stream of future revenues)
  • Regression of land values on various determinants of net revenue including climate variables

VLt = t NRt (1+ )-t

NRt = F(RFt, TMt, Zt, Xt, TKt)

the ricardian approach 2
The Ricardian Approach 2
  • Difficult to have long time series on land values or net revenue by region and all regressors
  • Cross-sectional data reflecting spatial diversity in climate attributes and all other determinants of land value (NR) alternatively used
  • Partially controls for adaptation (substitution between inputs in production)
  • Other adaptation missed (crop switching, transitory adjustment costs – capital goods)
water crop response simulation models 1
Water-crop response simulation models 1
  • Describe crops’ behavior (physiological and development) as a function of:
    • Climate (weather) factors
    • Soil conditions (fertility, water holding capacity, etc.)
    • Other determinants under farmer control and management (planting dates and input levels)
  • Simulate yield response to variability in climate
  • Other response variables such as crop water consumption and irrigation requirements as climate changes (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, water excess-deficit at critical stages of growth, etc.)
water crop response simulation models 2
Water-crop response simulation models 2
  • Compliments the cross-sectional analysis – Ricardian (both spatially implemented)
  • Overestimates impacts – no control for adaptation (recent modifications to allow)
  • Crop specific and location specific
  • Experimental – real world replications of conditions (calibrations to actual locations’ data)
river basin hydrology
River basin Hydrology
  • Models how CC affects agriculture also indirectly through impacts on basin hydrology (runoff):
    • Rainfall, temp. and evaporation affect seasonal patterns of river flow and hence availability of water for agriculture
  • Compliments the cross-sectional analysis – Ricardian method
    • Both spatially-based
data and plans of analyses 1
Data and Plans of analyses 1
  • District level data
    • Farm survey data at district level (same year 2002) aggregated by country and region (river basins)
      • Crop yields, prices and production costs (NR)
      • Other agric. response variables (% land under crops)
    • Climate and soil attributes data by district again aggregated at river basin
    • Other data at district level (population, proximity to markets, literacy and disease rate, etc.)
  • Regional data-base to sport the cross-country assessment of economic impacts
data and plans of analyses 2
Data and Plans of analyses 2
  • Hydrology models analyses’ generate input variables to the Ricardian regression by district
    • Change in runoff, soil moisture, etc.
  • Crop water response models calibrate the biological response of crops to CC – by district
    • Yield
    • Water requirements
  • The Ricardian analyses of the economic impact applied at both country and district levels
  • First Year:
    • Surveys designed and data collection instruments developed and tested in the various countries
    • Training on the three methods and approaches conducted