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Developing Synthetic Temperature-Correlated Wind Generation Data. Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010. Integrating Wind Uncertainty into Adequacy Analysis. Objective : Develop a wind-generation data series analogous to the 70-year streamflow record Two approaches have been tested:

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developing synthetic temperature correlated wind generation data

Developing SyntheticTemperature-CorrelatedWind Generation Data

Steering Committee MeetingJanuary 29, 2010

integrating wind uncertainty into adequacy analysis
Integrating Wind Uncertainty intoAdequacy Analysis
  • Objective: Develop a wind-generation data series analogous to the 70-year streamflow record
  • Two approaches have been tested:
    • Statistical (Moving Block Bootstrap)
    • Historical Meteorology (Atmospheric Modeling)
  • Both approaches have pros and cons but the statistical method is being used

Steering Committee

modeling uncertainties
Modeling Uncertainties
  • GENESYS simulates resource dispatch on an hourly basis over many different potential futures
  • Random variables include:
    • Hydro conditions (70-year natural streamflow record)
    • Thermal operation (forced outages)
    • Temperature (results in load variation)
    • Wind generation variation
  • Historical data indicates that wind generation is correlated with temperature
  • Monthly average streamflows are assumed to be independent of monthly average temperature

Steering Committee

statistical approach for wind
Statistical Approach for Wind
  • To develop a temperature-correlated wind data set, a statistical method is used (kNN bootstrap)
  • This method incorporates the dependence that has been observed in the historical record into the synthetic wind data set
    • Creates a larger wind-generation data set by using temperature records that predate the wind fleet
    • Keeps the statistical correlation of wind and load in developing a synthetic wind record

Steering Committee

status update
Status Update
  • BPA has run a study using hourly load center temperature data (limited data set).
  • The method is being reworked to use daily load center temperature max and min observations to increase data range
  • The synthetic temperature-correlated wind data set for Genesys use should be available by the end of April.

Steering Committee