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Microdata and the Future of Historical Family Demography. Univac 1105 at Census, 1960. The First Microdata: The 1960 Census Samples . Distributed on 13 Univac Tapes (or 18,000 punchcards ). Cover, 1960 Census Microdata Codebook . The 1970 Public Use Samples.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Microdata

and the Future of Historical

Family Demography

slide4

The First Microdata: The 1960 Census Samples

Distributed on 13 Univac Tapes

(or 18,000 punchcards)

Cover, 1960 Census Microdata Codebook

the 1970 public use samples
The 1970 Public Use Samples
  • 60 times the size of 1960
  • Much more detail
  • (especially geography)
  • 1960 sample expanded 10-fold
  • Same format and coding as 1970
  • Led to an explosion of research on
  • change
national historical microdata collections 1978 1983 number of person records
National historical* microdata collections, 1978-1983: number of person records

Preston, 1900 USA

Darroch and Ornstein, 1871 Canada

* historical means

before 1960

national historical microdata collections 1978 2002 number of person records
National historical microdata collections, 1978-2002: number of person records

IPUMS, 1850-1920 USA

Winsborough, 1940 and 1950 USA

Sager and Baskerville, 1901 Canada

Anderson, 1851 Britain

national historical microdata collections 1978 2011 number of person records
National historical microdata collections, 1978-2011: number of person records

Inwood and Jack, 1891 Canada;

Dillon, 1852 Canada;

Garðarsdóttir, 1801-1901 Iceland;

+ Norway, Scotland, Sweden, USA

IPUMS, 1880 USA and

Dillon, 1881 Canada

Schürer and Woollard, 1881 England and Wales; Thorvaldsen, et al. 1900 Norway

national historical microdata collections 1978 2015 number of person records
National historical microdata collections, 1978-2015: number of person records

USA 1940

Ancestry.Com,

USA 1850-1930

Scotland

Schürer, 1851-1911 England and Wales

major new national projects
Major New National Projects
  • The China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset
  • Norwegian Historical Population Registers
  • Sweden POPLINK
  • Netherlands LINKS
  • Great Britain I-CeM
slide21

Facebook has data on 800 million people

We have data on

912 million people

slide22

Facebook has data on 800 million people

In a few more years,

it will double again

the power of microdata
The Power of Microdata

Age classification for school enrollment

in published U.S. Census

Customized measures: Variables based on combined characteristics of family and household members, capitalizing on the hierarchical structure of the data

Multivariate analysis: Analyze many individual, household, and community characteristics simultaneously

Interoperability: Harmonize data across time and space

why do we need historical microdata
Why Do We Need Historical Microdata?

Space and Time

  • Fine-grained contextual analysis of processes of change
  • Microdata allows interoperability across time and place
  • Can merge population data with data from other sources, hinging on geography
  • Data mining can exploit large scale
three points
Three Points
  • We should use appropriate measures
  • We should study spatial variation
  • We should study long-run historical change
spatial analysis
Spatial Analysis

John Hajnal

The “Hajnal Line”

slide32

2009

1972

the great family transition
The Great Family Transition
  • Decline of intergenerational coresidence
  • Rise of marital instability
  • Separation of fertility and marriage
  • Rise of cohabitation and solitary residence
  • Decline of marriage
  • Increasing signs that these changes may be global in scope
ideational theory
Ideational Theory
  • Rise of individualism
  • Secularization
  • Norms and values have a life of their own
structural change
Structural Change
  • Norway: % in commercial and industrial occupations rose from 13% in 1801 to 42% in 1900
  • U.S. and Norway: % of women in wage-labor jobs doubled from 1870 to 1900
power patriarchy and structural change
Power, Patriarchy, and Structural Change
  • Individual-level incentives and constraints
  • Wage labor shifted balance of power
    • Fathers and sons
    • Men and women
  • Structural transformation undermined patriarchal authority
coale ready willing and able
Coale: Ready, Willing, and Able
  • Must be within “calculus of conscious choice”
  • Must be advantageous
  • Must be possible
agenda for investigating the family transition
Agenda for Investigating the Family Transition
  • Assess family choices at the individual level
  • Describe the geography and chronology of family change
  • Trace spatial associations between measures of family change and secularization
  • Compare the family transition to the fertility transition at the level of families, communities, economic and cultural regions
  • Use comparative longitudinal sources to evaluate material incentives for family transitions
  • Use multi-level analysis with complete-count data to assess impact of local economic opportunities and conditions on family decisions
definitions united nations 2001
Definitions (United Nations 2001)
  • Family: A group of people residing in the same household who recognize a kin relationship, ordinarily through descent, marriage, or adoption
  • Household: Person or group of people who live together and make common provision for food or other essentials for living
  • Kin group: A group of people who recognize a relationship through descent, marriage, or adoption
scope of family demography cherlin 2003
Scope of Family Demography (Cherlin 2003)
  • The configuration of families, households, and kin groups
  • Transitions that affect those configurations

Such transitions include departure from parental home, marriage, marital dissolution, cohabitation