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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 07, 2013. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 07, 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall is slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, the Philippines, and over much of the maritime Indonesian islands. However, over central and southern peninsular India (in areas under the influence of NE monsoon), Laos, Thailand, and over eastern half of Australia, the rainfall is below normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation is slightly above normal over southeast China and below normal over southeastern India. From the 1st of October thru the 31st of December, India Met. Dept. is reporting that the NE monsoon rainfall amounts over India is about 21 % below their long term normal. The NE monsoon over India is officially declared as over as of December 31st of the year, and this below normal October-December 2012 NE winter monsoon follows the heels of another below normal June-September 2012 SW summer monsoon over all of India.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, it now appears that the winter monsoon has pretty much withdrawn from most of India and continental southeast Asia, and the monsoon rains have now slowly and steadily begun moving southeast across the equator to the southern hemisphere, but now over Malaysia/Indonesian islands and over northern and western Australia. However this past week, rainfall is below normal over northern and eastern Australia.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall is slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, the Philippines, and over much of the maritime Indonesian islands. However, over central and southern peninsular India (in areas under the influence of NE monsoon), Laos, Thailand, and over eastern half of Australia, the rainfall is below normal. The 30-day precipitation is slightly above normal over southeast China and below normal over southeastern India. From the 1st of October thru the 31st of December, India Met. Dept. is reporting that the NE monsoon rainfall amounts over India is about 21 % below their long term normal. The NE monsoon over India is officially declared as over as of December 31st of the year, and this yet another below normal October-December 2012 NE winter monsoon follows the heels of below normal June-September 2012 SW summer monsoon over all of India. This past week, it now appears that the winter monsoon has pretty much withdrawn from most of India and continental southeast Asia, and the monsoon rains have now slowly and steadily begun moving southeast across the equator to the southern hemisphere, but now over Malaysia/Indonesian islands and over northern and western Australia. However this past week, rainfall is below normal over northern and eastern Australia. For the upcoming couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model predicts in general, below normal rainfall over and around Indonesian islands, but above normal rainfall over northern and western Australia.
