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European Real Estate Society 21st Annual Conference 25th-28th June 2014. A comparison of residential and commercial real estate values in polycentric cities. Aurélien DECAMPS KEDGE Business School aurelien.decamps@kedgebs.com Frédéric GASCHET, Guillaume POUYANNE, Stéphane VIROL

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a comparison of residential and commercial real estate values in polycentric cities

European Real Estate Society 21st Annual Conference 25th-28th June 2014

A comparison of residential and commercial real estate values in polycentric cities

Aurélien DECAMPS

KEDGE Business School

aurelien.decamps@kedgebs.com

Frédéric GASCHET, Guillaume POUYANNE, Stéphane VIROL

GRETHA UMR CNRS 5113

University Montesquieu Bordeaux IV

frederic.gaschet@u-bordeaux4.fr

guillaume.pouyanne@u-bordeaux4.fr

stephane.virol@u-bordeaux4.fr

presentation
Presentation

Background

Aim of the paper

Method and Data

Results

Conclusion

ERES Conference 2014

background
Background

ERES Conference 2014

  • The « polycentric city » :
    • Emergence of subcenters (Giuliano and Small, 1991; Cervero and Wu, 1997; Bogart and Anderson, 2001)
    • Economicallyspecialized (Gaschet, 2001; Bingham and Kimble, 1995)
    • Two types of subcenters (Munizet al., 2009) :

Suburbanization of jobs - Integration of remotemedium-sized city

background1
Background

ERES Conference 2014

  • Densitypolycentric gradients :
    • A growing impact of subcenters on :
      • Residentialdensity (McMillen and McDonald, 1998)
      • Job density (Small and Song, 1994)
  • The price gradient :
    • Impact of centralities on real estateprices
      • Residentialprices: job accessibilityand/or amenities (Ommeren et al, 1997; Brueckner et al, 1999)
      • Commercial prices: firms’ proximity and agglomerationeffects (Anas, Kim, 1996; Sivitanidou, 1996; Sasaki, Mun, 1997)
    • The form of the gradient: spatial pattern of real estateprices in a polycentric city
background2

Strong

complementarity

Medium

Complementarity

Strong

Substituability

CBD

Subcenter

Distance to the CBD

Background

Housing prices

ERES Conference 2014

Price gradient regarding type of subcenters

aim of the paper
Aim of the paper

ERES Conference 2014

  • Comparison of the pattern of residential and commercial real estateprices in two french polycentriccities : Bordeaux and Lyon
    • Do centralities have the same impact on residential and commercial prices or isthere a differenciationbetweenresidential and economiccentralities?
    • The form of the gradient
      • Complementarity vs. Substituability
      • Spatial influence of each type centralities
method and data
Method and Data

ERES Conference 2014

  • A 3-steps approach :

1. Identification of subcenters

2. Hedonicmodel of housingand commercial prices in twopolycentriccities

3. Semi parametricregression to estimate the form of the price gradient (Geniaux, Napoleone, 2008; McMillen, Redfearn, 2010)

  • 1. Identification of subcenters
    • Giuliano and Small (1991)’s criterion : job density and minimum number of jobs (Geolocalized Data from INSEE)
method and data1
Method and Data

ERES Conference 2014

  • 2. A log linear hedonic model of housing and commercial prices
    • Transaction prices and intrinsiccharacteristics: PERVAL (2000-2010)
    • Location attributes (geolocalizeddatabase, INSEE and IGN)
      • Medianincome, proximitywith transport infrastructures, schools and universities, commercial and industrial areas, airport.
    • 3 Polycentricspecifications
      • Distance to CBD and eachsubcentres
      • Distance to CBD and the nearestsubcentre
      • Genaralized job accessibility
  • 3. Semi parametricregression: GAM (General Additive Model)
results
Results

ERES Conference 2014

  • Polycentrichedonic model
    • Intrinsiccharacteristics and location attributessignificantwith the expectedsigns
    • Strong impact of CBD : amenities + job accessibility
    • Subcentres:
      • Similaritybetweenadjusted R² of polycentric and genralizedaccessibilitymodels
      • Strong impact of Arcachon for Bordeaux
      • Residentialprices : significantimpact of severalsubcenters (number of jobs and specializationallowingcomplementaritywith the CBD) and nearestsubcenter
      • Commercial prices : more selective impact of subcenters (job density and metropolitanfunctions)
slide12

Houses - Bordeaux

Houses - Lyon

Dist_CBD

Dist_CBD

Appt - Bordeaux

Appt - Lyon

Dist_CBD

Dist_CBD

ERES Conference 2014

slide13

Houses - Bordeaux

Houses - Lyon

Dist_nearestSC

Dist_nearestSC

Appt - Bordeaux

Appt - Lyon

Dist_nearestSC

Dist_nearestSC

ERES Conference 2014

slide14

Commercial - Bordeaux

Commercial - Lyon

Dist_CBD

Dist_CBD

Commercial - Bordeaux

Commercial - Lyon

Dist_nearestSC

Dist_nearestSC

ERES Conference 2014

conclusion
Conclusion

ERES Conference 2014

  • The polycentric structure of real estatepricesisconfirmedin the twocities
  • Differenciated impact of centralities:
    • Residentialprices: complementarity, mix of localizedamenities and job accessibility
    • Selectivity of commercial prices and substituability
    • Different spatial extentbetween Bordeaux and Lyon, residential and commercial prices
  • Research perspectives
    • Segmentation of samplebetween the severalbreak-points of the pricegradients to sharpen the analysis of spatial patterns of real estateprices
    • Comparisonwithothermetropolitan areas withdifferent size (Ex: Paris)