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Trends in Job Growth over the Next 10 Years: A Look at Some Compelling Data

Explore educational requirements, wages, & projections for Montana's job market. Understand growth by training & career clusters. Data from reputable sources for informed decisions.

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Trends in Job Growth over the Next 10 Years: A Look at Some Compelling Data

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  1. Trends in Job Growth over the Next 10 Years: A Look at Some Compelling Data Brad Eldredge PhD Research and Analysis Bureau MT Dept. of Labor and Industry

  2. Montana’s Current Job Market • Mix of Training and Education Requirements • Wages • Employment Growth

  3. Education Mix: Workers Aged 25-44 MT USA 27% 27% 41% 44% 29% 32% Source: Current Population Survey, 2002-2004

  4. Percent of Population with College Degrees

  5. Bachelor’s Degrees and Per Capita Personal Income, MT Counties 2000 *Natural log of per capita income was used in the regression analysis

  6. Education and Training Requirements, MT vs. USA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Survey, May 2006

  7. Training Requirements by Career Cluster Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Survey, May 2006

  8. Education by Career Clusters (Percentages) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Survey, May 2006

  9. Real Wages in Montana: The last 30 Years (2006 Dollars) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

  10. MT Wages as a Percent of US Wages: 1977 to 2005 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  11. Median Earnings over the past 12 months by educational attainment of the population over 25 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005

  12. Average Wage by Training Requirements Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Statistics Program

  13. Average Wages by Career Cluster Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Statistics Program

  14. Job Growth Outlook: 2004-2014 • Methodology • Statewide projections • Projections by educational attainment • Projections by career cluster

  15. Projections Methodology • Occupational projections are based on industry projections • Industry projections use three methods -shift share analysis -trend models -regression analysis

  16. Annual Job Growth, 1996-2006 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

  17. Actual Job Growth, 1995-2005 • 1995 Employment = 506,891 • 2005 Employment = 613,425 • Annual Growth Rate = 1.9% • Growth over 10 years = 21.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  18. Statewide Job Projections, 2004-2014 • 2004 Employment = 572,687 • 2014 Projection = 673,926 • Projected Annual Growth Rate = 1.6% • Projected Growth over 10 years = 17.7%

  19. Projected Growth by Training Requirements: 2004-2014

  20. Projected Growth by Training Requirements: 2004-2014

  21. Projected Growth by Career Cluster

  22. Detailed Projections Information • www.ourfactsyourfuture.org -Projections by detailed occupation -Montana Career Information System • www.bls.gov -National Employment Projections -Occupational Outlook Handbook

  23. Labor Force Participation Rates by Education

  24. Unemployment Rates by Education

  25. MT vs. USA Demographics Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 estimates

  26. Labor Force and Population

  27. Take Away Points • Montanans need access to career information in order to make informed decisions • There is no doubt that education pays • Montana is facing near and long term labor shortages, so we cannot afford to have discouraged workers

  28. Contact Information Brad Eldredge (406)444-5474 beldredge@mt.gov www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

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