The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty

1. The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty Presented during the 1st M&E Network Forum organized by NEDA and UNICEF, November 7-8, 2011 Crowne Plaza Manila Galleria, Quezon City MaharMangahas

2. HOW NSCB “REDUCED” POVERTY • On Feb. 8, 2011, NSCB announced a “refinement” of the average official poverty line for 2009, to Php7,017 from Php7,953 (by 11.8%), per month for a family of 5. • This reduced officially-poor families to 20.9% from 26.3% (by 5.4 pts), or to 3.9M from 4.9M (by 1M families). • This also reduced the officially-poor population to 26.5% from 32.6% (by 6.1 pts), or to 23.1M from 28.5M (by 5.4M people).

3. HOW NSCB DOWNGRADED THE NCR FOOD BUNDLE Old methodology “Refined” methodology Meal time Viands Breakfast Tomato omelette Coffee for adults Milk for children Fried rice Lunch a. Fried galunggong b. Mongo guisado with malunggay leaves and small shrimps Boiled rice Banana latundan Dinner Pork adobo Pechayguisado Boiled rice Banana latundan Snacks Pandesalwith margarine Meal time Viands Breakfast Scrambled egg Coffee with milk Boiled rice Lunch a. Boiled mongo with malunggay leaves and dried dilis Boiled rice Banana latundan Dinner Fried tulingan Boiledkangkong Boiled rice Snacks Pandesal Source: “Refinements in Measuring Poverty” by Dr. Romulo Virola, NSCB. http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2011/021411_rav_joe_bbb.asp

4. THE NSCB “REFINED” METHODOLOGY TRULY REDUCED THE OFFICIAL LIVING STANDARD • It downgraded the quality of the diet of the borderline poor so as to cut the food threshold. • By reducing the officially-seen evidence of poverty, it covered up the extent of the poverty problem. • It has never worked on specific non-food needs, aside from allotting a fixed 31 centavos for every 69 centavos for food.

5. NSCB’S OLD AND “REFINED” THRESHOLDS NSCB compares old to new, rather than new to old! Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 17.

6. MONTHLY FOOD POVERTY THRESHOLD FOR A FAMILY OF FIVE (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 2003 2006 2009 Old New O - N Old New O - N Old New O - N PHILIPPINES 3,395 3,157 238 4,177 3,857 320 5,298 4,869 429 NCR 4,156 4,073 82 4,920 4,798 122 6,221 5,763 458 CAR 3,809 3,182 627 4,515 3,750 765 5,616 4,687 929 Region I 3,708 3,445 262 4,420 4,173 247 5,593 5,162 430 Region II 3,338 3,002 335 3,894 3,553 341 5,257 4,452 805 Region III 3,895 3,709 185 4,540 4,466 74 5,817 5,545 272 Region IV-A 3,843 3,558 285 4,492 4,125 367 5,753 5,116 637 Region IV-B 3,470 3,029 441 4,075 3,696 380 5,155 4,574 580 Region V 3,491 3,331 160 4,239 3,964 275 5,454 4,993 461 Region VI 3,493 3,073 421 4,151 3,608 543 5,311 4,689 622 Region VII 2,923 3,396 -473 3,959 4,195 -236 4,829 5,171 -342 Region VIII 3,204 2,868 335 4,030 3,465 564 5,167 4,636 531 Region IX 3,018 2,810 208 3,919 3,428 492 4,865 4,411 453 Region X 3,331 3,047 285 4,065 3,783 282 5,139 4,810 329 Region XI 3,273 3,122 151 4,285 3,913 371 5,408 4,950 458 Region XII 3,253 2,981 272 4,043 3,649 394 5,005 4,589 416 CARAGA 3,484 3,038 446 4,309 3,791 518 5,465 4,943 522 ARMM 3,638 2,837 800 4,299 3,625 675 5,478 4,705 774

7. MONTHLY POVERTY THRESHOLD FOR A FAMILY OF FIVE (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 2003 2006 2009 Old New O - N Old New O - N Old New O - N PHILIPPINES 5,129 4,573 555 6,274 5,562 712 7,953 7,017 936 NCR 6,974 5,832 1,142 8,569 6,870 1,700 10,544 8,251 2,293 CAR 5,847 4,534 1,313 7,004 5,407 1,598 8,885 6,718 2,168 Region I 5,534 4,913 621 6,648 5,979 669 8,182 7,403 778 Region II 4,757 4,313 445 5,746 5,088 658 7,653 6,378 1,275 Region III 5,991 5,321 670 7,208 6,406 802 8,976 7,909 1,068 Region IV-A 6,133 5,164 969 7,400 5,952 1,449 9,071 7,408 1,663 Region IV-B 5,168 4,333 835 6,167 5,254 913 7,621 6,570 1,051 Region V 5,158 4,782 376 6,256 5,685 571 7,855 7,144 711 Region VI 5,121 4,395 726 6,002 5,180 822 7,600 6,682 918 Region VII 4,085 4,916 - 830 5,579 6,028 - 449 6,963 7,437 - 474 Region VIII 4,502 4,104 398 5,823 4,952 870 7,338 6,629 709 Region IX 4,336 4,018 319 5,508 4,921 587 6,845 6,317 528 Region X 4,835 4,375 460 5,916 5,411 505 7,367 6,903 463 Region XI 4,750 4,474 276 6,226 5,612 614 7,939 7,100 839 Region XII 4,720 4,282 438 5,927 5,221 706 7,155 6,568 587 CARAGA 4,998 4,315 684 6,354 5,390 964 7,993 7,024 969 ARMM 5,322 4,027 1,295 6,472 5,149 1,323 8,037 6,806 1,231

8. NSCB’S REDUCTION OF POVERTY (8 Feb 2011) This would have made PH the worst in ASEAN! Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 18.

9. NSCB’S REDUCTION OF POVERTY (14 Feb 2011) NSCB in effect asserts that 45.3% - 33.1% = 12.2% of the people in 1991 were “not really” poor! This would have made PH second-worst in ASEAN! Source: “Refinements in Measuring Poverty” by Dr. Romulo Virola, NSCB. http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2011/021411_rav_joe_bbb.asp

10. POVERTY % OF FAMILIES (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 2003 2006 2009 Old New O - N Old New O - N Old New O - N PHILIPPINES 24.4 20.0 4.4 26.9 21.1 5.8 26.3 20.9 5.4 NCR 4.8 2.1 2.7 7.1 3.4 3.7 7.8 2.6 5.2 CAR 25.8 16.1 9.7 28.8 18.6 10.2 28.9 17.1 11.8 Region I 24.4 17.8 6.6 26.2 20.4 5.8 23.1 17.8 5.3 Region II 19.3 15.2 4.1 20.5 15.5 5.0 23.6 14.5 9.1 Region III 13.4 9.4 4.0 16.8 12.0 4.8 16.3 12.0 4.3 Region IV-A 14.5 9.2 5.3 16.7 9.4 7.3 17.2 10.3 6.9 Region IV-B 39.9 29.8 10.1 43.7 34.3 9.4 37.2 27.6 9.6 Region V 40.6 38.0 2.6 41.8 36.1 5.7 41.1 36.0 5.1 Region VI 31.4 23.5 7.9 31.1 22.1 9.0 30.2 23.8 6.4 Region VII 23.6 32.1 -8.5 30.3 33.5 -3.2 26.5 30.2 -3.7 Region VIII 35.3 30.2 5.1 40.7 31.1 9.6 39.2 33.2 6.0 Region IX 44.0 40.5 3.5 40.2 34.2 6.0 39.8 36.6 3.2 Region X 37.7 32.4 5.3 36.1 32.7 3.4 35.8 32.8 3.0 Region XI 28.5 25.4 3.1 30.6 26.2 4.4 31.0 25.6 5.4 Region XII 32.1 27.2 4.9 33.8 27.1 6.7 33.0 28.1 4.9 CARAGA 47.1 37.6 9.5 45.5 36.9 8.6 47.8 39.8 8.0 ARMM 45.4 25.0 20.4 55.3 36.5 18.8 53.7 38.1 15.6

11. POVERTY % OF POPULATION (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 2003 2006 2009 Old New O - N Old New O - N Old New O - N PHILIPPINES 30.0 24.9 5.1 32.9 26.4 6.5 32.6 26.5 6.1 NCR 6.9 3.2 3.7 10.4 5.4 5.0 11.2 4.0 7.2 CAR 32.2 21.7 10.5 34.5 23.0 11.5 35.2 22.9 12.3 Region I 30.2 22.8 7.4 32.7 26.6 6.1 29.4 23.3 6.1 Region II 24.5 19.6 4.9 25.5 20.0 5.5 29.4 18.8 10.6 Region III 17.5 12.4 5.1 20.7 15.2 5.5 20.1 15.3 4.8 Region IV-A 18.4 12.1 6.3 20.9 12.3 8.6 21.9 13.9 8.0 Region IV-B 48.1 37.5 10.6 52.7 42.2 10.5 45.8 35.0 10.8 Region V 48.5 45.8 2.7 51.1 45.2 5.9 50.2 45.1 5.1 Region VI 39.2 30.6 8.6 38.6 28.6 10.0 38.3 31.2 7.1 Region VII 28.3 37.2 -8.9 35.4 38.8 -3.4 31.7 35.5 -3.8 Region VIII 43.0 37.6 5.4 48.5 39.0 9.5 47.7 41.4 6.3 Region IX 49.2 45.7 3.5 45.3 39.8 5.5 46.3 43.1 3.2 Region X 44.0 38.8 5.2 43.1 39.7 3.4 42.2 39.6 2.6 Region XI 34.7 31.0 3.7 36.6 31.7 4.9 37.3 31.3 6.0 Region XII 38.4 33.1 5.3 40.8 33.1 7.7 40.9 35.7 5.2 CARAGA 54.0 44.7 9.3 52.6 44.0 8.6 55.7 47.8 7.9 ARMM 52.8 31.4 21.4 61.8 42.8 19.0 61.0 45.9 15.1

12. ALL NSCB ACHIEVED WAS WINDOW-DRESSING At the “old” estimates of 37.3% or 32.9%, PH would be either worst or 2nd-worst in ASEAN! Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 16.

13. NSCB WENT ANTI-LABOR BY CLAIMING “A MINIMUM WAGE EARNER IN NCR CAN SUPPORT A FAMILY OF SIX.” Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 13.

14. THE EFFECT OF NSCB’S POVERTY “REFINEMENT” • It does nothing to deal with the problem of lack of annual poverty statistics. • It fosters complacency about Philippine poverty, turning attention to comparison with other countries, instead of improvements over time. • It works against the need of workers to maintain the real wage, let alone upgrade it. • If adopted for program targeting (e.g. CCT), it will lower the number of qualified beneficiaries.

15. CONCLUSION: THE NSCB’S POVERTY “REFINEMENT” SHOULD BE REJECTED, BECAUSE REDUCING THE EVIDENCE ABOUT POVERTY IS AGAINST THE PRINCIPLE OF EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING