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Components of the climate system, interactions, and changes

Components of the climate system, interactions, and changes. (Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch.1, FAQ 1.2, Figure 1). Atmospheric reanalysis: ERA-Interim. ECMWF forecasts: 1980 – 2010 Changes in skill are due to: improvements in modelling and data assimilation

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Components of the climate system, interactions, and changes

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  1. Components of the climate system, interactions, and changes (Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch.1, FAQ 1.2, Figure 1)

  2. Atmospheric reanalysis: ERA-Interim • ECMWF forecasts: 1980 – 2010 • Changes in skill are due to: • improvements in modelling • and data assimilation • evolution of the observing system • atmospheric predictability • ERA-Interim: 1979– 2010 • uses a 2006 forecast system • ERA-40 used a 2001 system • re-forecasts more uniform quality • improvements in modelling and • data assimilation outweigh • improvements in the observing • system CCI project integration meeting Reanalysis

  3. Modelers, PCMDI, JPL/NASA, CommunityWho does what? Produce Simulations & Projections (HUGE job; focus on model development – not analysis or observations) Model output archived in a uniform fashion to facilitate access and analysis. (Far from trivial – see below) Sophisticated development and application of model diagnostics for evaluation (Observations needed here, but which ones?) Identify and deliver/archive observations in form useful for model analysis (Requires model, obs and IT expertise) Develop global observations relevant to climate change research (Focus on hardware, retrievals, delivery) Modeling Centers NASA & JPL Weak Link PCMDI To quantify and reduce uncertainty, this chain has to work. Enormous Model Output/Complexity Waliser et al. 2009, Climatic Change, Submitted.

  4. NASA Recommended Datasets for CMIP5 Match up of available NASA datasets to PCMDI priority list 4

  5. Quantitative Performance Metrics Performance Metrics Single Model Index Weighting Gleckler et al., JGR, 2008 • A performance metric is a statistical measure of agreement between a simulated and observed field (or co-variability between fields) which can be used to assign a quantitative measure of performance (“grade”) to individual models • Low-order statistical measures: RMS error, mean error (bias), ratio of s, correlation for each variable

  6. Meeting Aims Check ECV project URDs are consistent with the needs of Climate Research Groups and GCOS requirements, including source traceability Allow ECV teams to explain how their projects address the integrated perspective for consistency between the ECVs to avoid gaps Start review of product specifications but define what is in it. Discuss how to deal with uncertainties in products Finalise the ECV projects data needs for ECMWF reanalysis data Start a discussion on ECV data set validation Maintain oversight of the position within the international framework in which CMUG/CCI is operating

  7. Actions All ECVs who want ERA-Interim data to reply to David Ensure consistent use of level 1B data CCI+CMUG Interpolation should be co-ordinated within and between projects (CDO tool) CCI Discussion on trial datasets and code to write datasets in correct format. Data Standards WG Continue interaction with JPL NASA CMIP5 project, NASA Measures?, EUMETSAT and GCOS All More presentations on use of satellite data in climate models in next coloc meetings. CMUG Identify potential comparisons CCI+CMUG Need for ‘Golden Year’? (e.g. aerosol vs FIRE) CMUG to complete table

  8. Uncertainty from Coloc 1 precision: a measurement which has a small random uncertainty is said to have high precision accuracy: a measurement which has a small systematic uncertainty is said to have high accuracy

  9. Related Activities GCOS, GSICS (Jan/Feb 2011) EUMETSAT CAF/CMSAF and SCOPE-CM NOAA-NASA initiatives (e.g. JPL CMIP5) WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel (Apr 11) Reanalyses (ERACLIM, JRA-55, EURO4M) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and follow-on activities (Exeter, June 11) Inputs to IPCC AR-5/6 (interaction with authors) EU IS-ENES, METAFOR, … EU GMES (MACC, MyOcean, Climate, ….)

  10. Outputs from meeting Meeting report of actions agreed by ECV projects Action: CMUG Scientific report describing strategic position of the CCI, in the international arena Action: CMUG+CCI Updates to URDs, DARDs based on discussions here and CMUG review (D2.1) and release of PSDs Action: CCI Review terminology for error characteristics CMUG+CCI Slides from this meeting on CMUG web site Action: CMUG

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