Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence BRIEFING September 2002 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Centerof RailSafety-Critical Excellence BRIEFINGSeptember 2002

• Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Overview
• SEAS Interdisciplinary Collaboration
• International University Collaboration
• FRA Safety Rule Making Participation
• Performance-based Rail Safety Enforcement Rule
• Major Risk USA Assessment Projects
• Risk Assessment Tool Set Overview
• Proposed UVA – China Collaboration

• MISSION: Develop and maintain railroad performance-based safety enforcement standards, risk assessment methodologies and tool sets that support global rail industry safety enforcement.
• OBJECTIVES: Provide a Monte Carlo risk assessment systems simulation methodology with web-based tool sets and education that is Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and Association of American Railroads (AAR) compliant.
• STRATEGY: Implement a UVA School of Engineering and Applied Science (SEAS) interdisciplinary Rail Center of Safety-Critical Excellence staffed with a permanent research staff, faculty from Electrical and Computer Engineering, Systems Information and Engineering, Civil Engineering, and Cognitive Psychology Laboratory. Establish global university - industry collaboration.
• EXPECTED RESULTS: Global application of performance-based safety standards, risk assessment methodologies, validated & verified tool sets and education.

• Center is based on a SEAS interdisciplinary collaboration with the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and industry suppliers:
• Electrical and Computer Engineering Department
• Monte Carlo systems approach to risk assessment
• Probabilistic advanced safety train control
• Systems Information and Engineering Department
• Historical data mining for validation & verification
• Human-factors for probabilistic safety behavior
• Civil Engineering Department
• Guideway structures probabilistic behavior models
• Crash-worthiness / accident severity
• Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department
• Maglev levitation safety hazards and performance
• Cognitive Measurements Laboratory
• Probabilistic human-factors for safety measurements

• Collaboration is underway with the following German technical universities:
• Technical University of Braunschweig
• Technical University of Dresden

• Center has participated since 1997 in the preparation of the FRA performance-based safety standard rule making that includes the following:
• Railroad Safety Program Plan
• Defines the Safety Plan process a railroad operator will follow
• Railroad Product Safety Plan
• Requires that a Product Safety Plan be written for each system that is deployed by the railroad operator
• Product Safety Plan must include:
• Traffic Flow Density
• Human-factors
• Quantified Risk Assessment
• Extensive Safety-Critical Documentation
• Documentation Configuration Control & Test Plan
• Operational Rule Book

• Performance-based safety standards require the quantification of safety as a societal cost risk versus train miles traveled
• A Product Safety Plan is required for each system that is deployed by a railroad and the following quantification must be demonstrated:
• Risk NEW << Risk Old
• Train Miles Traveled
• High Degree of Confidence
• Compliance to Coverage for all Safety-Critical Devices

• CSX: Communication-based Traffic Management (CBTM)
• 126 mile line
• Unit coal trains and other mixed mode traffic
• New York City Transit (NYCT): Communication-based Train Control (CBTC)
• 22 mile dual track line with crossovers
• High performance transit railway operations
• 60 second headways and 30 second train station dwell time
• Lockheed Martin: Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) Positive Train Control (PTC)
• 126 mile line with mixed mode operations
• High speed passenger (110 MPH) trains and freight
• Maglev, Inc: City of Pittsburgh, “Pennsylvania Project”
• 45 miles dual crossover guideway with 250 MPH planned speeds
• Passenger & light freight operation
• FRA: Web-based predictive risk assessment methodologies and tool set

• PROOF-OF-SAFETY: RISK VERSUS TRAIN MILES TRAVELED
• Subject to:
• Traffic throughput density
• Basic principles of safety
• Assumptions
• Constraints
• Operational rule book compliance
• Track plan infrastructure: track plan, guideway, bridges, crossings
• Train movement dynamics multi-dimensional model
• Signaling and control system multi-state probabilistic model
• Human-factors probabilistic model
• Train severity mishap model
• Proof-of-correctness (Hazard-free validation)
• Proof-of-safety risk (Non-hazard-free verification)
• Coverage compliance of all processor-based subsystems

• ASCAP is FRA performance-based standard compliant
• Monte Carlo large-scale train-centric simulation
• Operates on a web-based parallel processing mini-super computer
• ASCAP structure is Unified Modeling Language compliant
• Calculates Events Passed at Danger based on a dynamic train movement model and probabilistic behavior of wayside devices and human-factors – dispatchers, train crews and maintenance-of-way workers
• Events Passed at Danger are an automatic generation of fault trees
• Calculates mishap-pairs: train-to-train collisions, etc. and crash-worthiness severity as societal cost based on history of accidents and/or real-time performance-based simulation

• Probabilistic device behavior:
• Rule book compliance/non-compliance
• A.I. blackboard outcomes
• Human-factors safety behaviors and compliance
• Train dynamic movement model – discrete & continuous
• Accident severity societal cost
• Events passed at danger

S

CRASH

Train 2

Train 1

YARD A

YARD B

• Train 1 crew sees red signal as green & proceeds
• Train 1 has generated an EPAD
• Simulation changes from discrete event to continuous
• Based on train crew behavior(s) the trains may stop
• Train 1 crew has violated the rule book compliance

Continuous Simulation

Discrete Event Simulation

Train B should have taken the siding

Societal Cost

• A China/USA university partnership is proposed that provides FRA compliant risk assessment for the major rail projects in China:
• Duplicate a Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence in China for:
• High Speed Rail
• Maglev
• Transit Railways
• Technology transfer of Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) risk assessment compliant methodologies, tool sets and education to China
• Technology transfer would take place with UVA implementing the risk assessment of a major China rail project with Chinese graduate students at UVA
• Methodologies and tool sets would be supported via the web as graduate students return to China
• Chinese university would have a seat on the UVA Advisory Board to provide technical direction oversight. Likewise, Chinese Center would have a technical Advisory Board with a UVA member