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EITO 2002

EITO 2002. Presented by Bruno Lamborghini Chairman of EITO. EITO 2002. „Change has changed. No longer it is additive. No longer does it move in a straight line. Change is discontinuous, abrupt, seditious!“ (Gary Hamel). Major factors and trends in Europe. On the negative side

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EITO 2002

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  1. EITO 2002 Presented by Bruno LamborghiniChairman of EITO

  2. EITO 2002 „Change has changed. No longer it is additive. No longer does it move in a straight line. Change is discontinuous, abrupt, seditious!“ (Gary Hamel)

  3. Major factors and trends in Europe On the negative side • Economic slowdown and dotcom bubble • Heavy 3G licence fees cutting or delaying carriers investment programmes • Delays in availability of GPRS and 3G, coupled with relative saturation of the GSM market • Pricing/tariff competition squeezing revenues streams • Low market acceptance of ASPs and E-marketplace models • Ongoing skill shortage hampering E-business development

  4. Major factors and trends in Europe On the positive side • From dotcom euphoria to real E-business for „bricks & mortar“ companies • Increasing adoption of Internet-centric solutions for E-business • Integrated services moving from back-office into front-office operations • Unmetered Internet access favouring consumer and professional usage • Growing mobile data expectations • Broadband (ADSL and WLL) diffusion driving Internet/multimedia applications and services • E-government programmes notably at local community level

  5. World-wide ICT market growth by region,2001-2003, in % Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 2.442 billion Euro

  6. Western European ICT market actual growth by segment, 2001-2003, in % Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 678 billion Euro

  7. Western European ICT market annual growth, 1993-2003, in % Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 678 billion Euro

  8. Western European IT market growth by country,2002-2003, in % Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 341 billion Euro

  9. Western European TLC market growth by country,2002-2003, in % Source: EITO 2002 Market value 2002: 337 billion Euro

  10. Western European Web users by country, 2000-2005, thousands Web users: individuals who access the World Wide Web at least once in every three months. Source: EITO 2002

  11. Western European Web buyers vs. Web users Web users: individuals who access the World Wide Web at least once in every three months. Web buyers: individuals that have conducted Internet commerce within three months. Source: EITO 2002

  12. Internet commerce in Western Europe, billion Euro Source: EITO 2002

  13. Internet commerce in the top 5 European countries, 2001-2005, million Euro Source: EITO 2002

  14. Stages of E-business development Source: EITO 2002

  15. EITO 2002 special studyEntering the UMTS era Main outcome (Western Europe): • Mobile subscribers: end 2001: 291 million; end 2006: 401 million • Mobile Internet users: end 2001: 139 million (78% SMS only); end 2006: 203 million (61% GPRS-based and 28% UMTS-based) • Mobile terminal shipments: GPRS 80% from 2004-05; UMTS: 3% in 2004 to 42% in 2006 • Mobile Internet-related services: 2001: 10 billion Euro (mainly SMS); 2006: 75 billion Euro (47% of total mobile service revenues) • Mobile internet content / services applications: 2006: 52% entertainment 19% communications 17% business services 9% transactions

  16. Western European mobile Internet users by bearer service, millions Source: EITO 2002

  17. Western European mobile Internet service revenues, million Euro Source: EITO 2002

  18. Western European mobile content and services revenues by segment, million Euro Source: EITO 2002

  19. Mobile data value web Source: EITO 2002

  20. EITO 2002 special studyE-government and the business environment (1) Main outcome: • Business interest in conducting online transactions with government for competitiveness improvement • Online tax as most important G2B service (other areas: procurement, employment, information) – complete G2B transactional services are rare • G2B (20%) less developed than G2C (31%) and G2G (35%) • G2B most developed in Germany, France, Denmark, Portugal • Main drivers: low costs, speed, pressure of government initiatives, ease of use • Main inhibitors: slow take-up of digital signature, security, costs, organisational barriers • Main question to government: costs, effective commitment, leadership, staff resources, trust

  21. EITO 2002 special studyE-government and the business environment (2) Main G2B services: • Social contribution for employees • Corporation tax: declaration, notification • VAT: declaration, notification • Registration of a new company • Submission of data to statistical offices • Customs declaration • Environment-related permits • Public procurement

  22. EITO 2002 special studyE-government and the business environment (3) Main challenges: • Security (20%) • Digital signature (20%) • Legacy issues (15%) • Lack of infrastructure (10%) • Lack of broadband (5%)

  23. Proportion of GDP spent on public administration ICT compared with EU mean, 2000 Source: EITO 2002

  24. ICT spending on public administration as percentage of GDP, EU member states, 2000 Source: EITO 2002

  25. Proportion of public administration ICT expenditure on different E-government areas in EU member states, 2000 Source: EITO 2002

  26. Public administration ICT expenditure by business application (percentage), 2000 Source: EITO 2002

  27. EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (1) What is sustainable development? „A dynamic process which enables all people to realise their potential and improve their quality of life in ways that simultaneously protect and enhance the earth‘s life-support systems.“ The „triple bottom line“: Economic sustainability:economic growth without making undue demands on social or natural resources Environmental sustainability:minimising impacts and building / safeguarding natural resources Social sustainability: building and not undermining social equity

  28. EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (2) Economic sustainability and ICT Impact and opportunities: 1st order: ICT market growth, ICT investment, new companies, boom and bust 2nd order: Business applications, new opportunities for SMEs, financial markets, consumer empowerment 3rd order: New paradigm of growth, exclusion / inclusion

  29. EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (3) Environmental sustainability and ICT Impact and opportunities: 1st order: Design / manufacture, operation, disposal of ICT equipment 2nd order: Use of transport, ICT business systems, virtualisation of material products, products lifetimes, environmental information 3rd order: Decoupling economic growth and energy consumption / carbon emission, changing settlement patterns

  30. EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (4) Social sustainability and ICT Impact and opportunities: 1st order: Job creation, digital divide / opportunity 2nd order: Access to information, security challenge, better services, new communities online, popular protest online 3rd order: Cultural homogeneity / diversity, building local communities, building civic culture

  31. EITO 2002 special studyThe impact of ICT on sustainable development (5) Government / business policy options Three broad principles: • Institutional innovation must be as radical as technological innovation in order to keep up with the pace of change • Business, government and non-governmental organisations must work in partnership for action to be effective • Successful policy will depend on a longer term view, beyond the ups and downs of ICT stock prices

  32. Public / private policy actions (1) • Develop the E-economy policy agenda to maximise benefits and to build a model of a global knowledge society • Strengthen a stable and predictable EU regulatory framework and a progressive replacement of ex ante regulations with expost antitrust measures for telecommunications • EU enlargement for targeting a net economy of half a billion people and diffusion of best practices among less developed regions

  33. Public / private policy actions (2) • Promote broadband access as a main driver to net economy development • Harmonised regulations within the EU for broadband deployment and fiscal credits / incentives for broadband investments by users • Harmonised standards for components, protocols, security in wireless area • Promote digital broadcasting and digital rich media content • Invest in ICT-based education and E-learning for new skills and jobs

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