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The Enlargement of the European Union How far can it expand

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The Enlargement of the European Union How far can it expand

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    1. The Enlargement of the European Union How far can it expand ? Graham Avery Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory University of Belgrade 24 March 2010

    2. Themes Why has the EU expanded? Who can join it? What are the limits of Europe? What prospects for future enlargement? Where will the EU’s final frontiers lie? Can they be decided in advance?

    4. From EC-6 to EU-27 European political & economic integration 1950 Schuman Declaration of 9th May 1952 European Coal & Steel Community 1957 European Economic Community 1993 European Union For most of its existence, countries have been knocking on the door ...

    5. 1952

    6. 1973

    7. 1981

    8. 1986

    9. 1990

    10. 1995

    11. 2004

    12. 2007

    13. 2010

    14. Enlargement : why ? Magnetism of EU’s method of integration Enlargement policy is reactive, not proactive Expansion is driven by pressure from applicants not imperial ambition

    15. Enlargement : who ? Treaty on European Union (as amended by Lisbon Treaty) Article 49: ‘Any European state which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union’

    16. Article 2: ‘The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail’

    17. Copenhagen criteria 1993 Membership requires: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities existence of functioning market economy and capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union ability to take on obligations of membership

    18. Membership is based on values But EU not designed for world government Logically, expansion must stop somewhere Membership is also based on geography requires contiguity or proximity So what are the limits of Europe? geographical historical cultural

    19. Europe - geography

    20. Geographical limits of Europe In North, West & South the European continent is well defined by seas borderline cases: Cyprus, Iceland But in East the limits are unclear River Tanais? (Greeks, Romans) Ural mountains? (Strahlenberg, Tatishchev) Some geographers say Europe is not a continent Western peninsula of continent of Eurasia

    21. Europe - history

    22. Historical & cultural limits Roman empire Charlemagne Renaissance Enlightenment Christianity Western church Eastern church

    23. European Commission 1992 The term ‘European’ has not been officially defined. It combines geographical, historical and cultural elements which all contribute to European identity. The shared experience of proximity, ideas, values, and historical interaction cannot be condensed into a simple formula, and is subject to review by each succeeding generation. It is neither possible nor opportune to establish now the frontiers of the European Union, whose contours will be shaped over many years to come

    24. But is it really impossible ? What states are accepted as ‘European’ by international treaties today? Consider the Council of Europe Founded 1949 (before EU 1952) Aims & tasks are different ... ... but all EU members are signatories

    25. Council of Europe

    26. Council of Europe: 47 members European Union (27 states) plus: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia (FYROM), Montenegro, Serbia Turkey Iceland, Norway, Switzerland Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Russian Federation, Ukraine Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino

    27. Add 1 European state Belarus: not yet member of Council of Europe but would accepted be if democratic Subtract 4 micro-states (less than 100,000) Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino too small to operate in EU That leaves 17 states which are recognised as ‘European’ but not members of EU

    28. EU-44 ? So we have 17 states which if they decide to apply for EU membership could not be refused as ‘non-European’ But EU-27 will not necessarily expand to 44 No state is obliged to apply EU is not obliged to accept an applicant New states may be created (cf. Kosovo) States may leave EU

    29. Deepening vs. Widening A question accompanying each expansion Has more led to less? Results of enlargement from 15 to 27 No paralysis of decision-making EU works as well / as badly as before With increased size EU has developed more substantial polices (internally & externally) than it could with smaller group

    30. Absorption capacity European Council, Copenhagen 1993 ‘The Union’s capacity to absorb new members, while maintaining the momentum of European integration, is an important consideration in the general interest of both the Union and the candidate countries’ Demystification by Commission in 2006 But ‘pace of enlargement must take absorption capacity into account’ (European Council)

    31. Situation today Applicants for EU membership: Turkey (1987) Croatia (2003) Macedonia (2004) Montenegro (2008) Albania, Iceland, Serbia (2009) ‘Candidates’ & ‘potential candidates’ Other countries aspiring to EU membership (Ukraine etc.)

    32. 2010

    33. The EU’s next frontiers In short & medium term EU will limit its expansion to: Countries of Western Balkans: membership promised by EU at Thessaloniki in 2003 Turkey: accession uncertain, and in any case will take a long time EFTA countries: Iceland (plus Norway & Switzerland if they apply for membership)

    34. Turkey Longest wait: candidate since 1987 Biggest candidate: 78m now, 90m in future Arguments in favour of membership Economic: rapid growth, labour force Political: geostrategic position - yes, but ... Problems Copenhagen criteria: minorities, civil/military relations, freedom of expression Cyprus

    35. Western Balkans Total population 26 million of which Serbia 10 million Slow progress to EU membership Heritage of conflict Uncertain frontiers Problems of governance External dependence – ‘protectorates’ But what realistic alternative?

    36. Serbia & EU: priorities Political criteria Cooperation with Internat. Criminal Tribunal Governance judiciary, administration, anti-corruption, etc. Economic criteria Further economic reforms Kosovo Need for solution in view of EU accession

    37. European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA) European Economic Area (EEA) EU-27 & Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein EU’s closest relationship with neighbours Iceland: EU application 2009 result of financial crisis Norway: EU accession treaties 1972, 1994 but ‘no’ in referendums Switzerland: EU application 1992 but withdrawn after referendum on EEA

    38. Iceland Well qualified under EU’s criteria Democracy – Europe’s oldest assembly Economy – good despite crisis Already applies many EU rules (EEA) In Schengen zone (free movement of persons) Potential problems Fisheries Public opinion in Iceland

    39. The EU’s final frontiers In longer term EU may consider other East European countries as potential members: Ukraine 47m, Belarus 10m, Moldova 3.6m Azerbaijan 9m, Georgia 4.4m, Armenia 3.2m Presently in EU’s Neighbourhood Policy an ‘accession-neutral’ relationship enhanced by Eastern Partnership 2009 leading to Association Agreements Role of Russia in European neighbourhood

    40. EU’s Eastern Partnership

    41. Russia too ? Idea of EU membership mentioned by leaders on both sides (Yeltsin, Berlusconi) But is it feasible for Russia with self-image as a ‘great power’ population of 140 million differences in terms of values Maybe one day ... ? declining population, relations with China

    42. Decide final frontiers now ? Not rational: other options not yet clear development of ‘strategic partnerships’? Not desirable: definition of limits would discourage states excluded diminish leverage for states included Not possible: enlargement needs unanimity EU members have widely differing views

    43. Conclusion Final limits of EU will result not from strategic choice made in advance but from successive political decisions & events EU’s policy of ‘constructive ambiguity’ neither ‘yes’ nor ‘no’ to future enlargement Not close the door to other Europeans allow all Europeans to take part in the construction of our common house

    44. Publications Avery G., ‘An Ever-Wider Europe? Where will the EU’s borders end?’ Challenge Europe 16, European Policy Centre, Brussels, 2007 Avery G., ‘EU Expansion and Wider Europe' (chapter 9) in Bomberg E., Peterson J. & Stubb A. (ed.s), ‘The European Union: How Does it Work?’ Oxford University Press, 2008

    45. The Enlargement of the European Union How far can it expand ? Graham Avery Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory University of Belgrade 24 March 2010

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