1 / 33

Monetary Policy and the Global Economy: Market Developments and Forecast

This article discusses market developments, cyclical indicators, and the Bank of Finland's forecast for the global economy. It also covers major differences within the euro area, the condition of public finances, youth unemployment, recent monetary policy measures, and the global monetary policy stance.

danyoung
Download Presentation

Monetary Policy and the Global Economy: Market Developments and Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Bank of Finland Bulletin 1/2012Monetary Policy and the Global Economy Governor Erkki Liikanen 15 March 2012 Erkki Liikanen

  2. Themes • The markets, a cyclical snapshot and the forecast • Market developments and cyclical indicators • Assumptions and the Bank of Finland forecast for the global economy • Forecast risks • Major differences within the euro area • Condition of public finances • Youth unemployment • Recent monetary policy measures • Global monetary policy stance • Steps taken by the Eurosystem Erkki Liikanen

  3. Market developments and cyclical indicators Erkki Liikanen

  4. Major changes in confidence Erkki Liikanen

  5. Major changes in confidence Erkki Liikanen

  6. This is also reflected on the stock markets Erkki Liikanen

  7. Some improvement on the government bond markets Erkki Liikanen

  8. Stabilisation measures • The monetary policy decisions of the ECB-council • e.g. three year LTROs • The EU level decisions made in early December • ’Six-pack’ entered into force on 13th December • ’Fiscal compact’ • Decisions taken at national level • The stabilisation programmes in Italy and Spain • Agreement on the 2nd package of Greece Erkki Liikanen

  9. Cut in policy rate and expansion in central bank credit have relaxed monetary conditions in the euro area Erkki Liikanen

  10. Country specific differences in financial conditions are still large Euro area Finland 25827 Erkki Liikanen

  11. European crisis management framework Erkki Liikanen

  12. Bank of Finland‘s global economy forecast Erkki Liikanen

  13. Assumptions for Bank of Finland’s international forecast • Multidimensional uncertainty • Economic uncertainty, • Political uncertainty, … • Assumption: action is taken to calm down the crisis • Euro area countries adhere to their promised adjustment measures in respect of both 1) adjustment of debt levels and 2) strengthening the foundations of growth • Contributes to public confidence and lower interest rates • Finding a new balance is a slow and gradual process • Restoring credibility and correcting high debt levels take time Erkki Liikanen

  14. GDP 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f United States 3,0 1,7 2,3 2,6 2,5 (1,5) (1,9) (2,6) EU20 1,9 1,5 - 0,2 1,0 1,6 (1,6) (0,9) (1,6) Japan 4,5 - 0,9 1,4 1,5 1,7 ( - 0,6) (2,4) (1,3) China 10,4 9,2 8 8 7 (9) (8) (8) Russia 4,3 4,3 3,7 3,7 3,4 (4,4) (4,4) (3,6) World 5,3 3,8 3,2 3,9 3,9 (3,9) (3,6) (4,0) World trade 13,7 6,0 3,5 5,8 6,3 (6,2) (6,1) (7,1) f = forecast % change on the previous year (previous forecast in brackets). Source: Bank of Finland. Bank of Finland’s forecast outcomes Erkki Liikanen

  15. Inflation slows during the current year Inflation Inflation expectations Erkki Liikanen

  16. Why is this crisis different:slow recovery from financial crises Recessions excl. financial crises GDP Recessions related to financial crises USA 2008– Euro area 2008– Finland 2008– Horizontal axis: time since peak in quarters. Vertical axis: median of observations, index: peak = 100. Sources: IMF WEO April 2009, Eurostat, BEA, and Statistics Finland. 25856 Erkki Liikanen

  17. Risks to the forecast mainly on the downside • Recovery from the debt crisis a slow and uneven process • A positive spiral may come to a halt abruptly and unexpectedly • Reasons: failure in carrying out adjustment programmes, market reactions to weaker-than-expected data releases, … • Euro area countries’ ability to implement reforms of critical importance • How is crisis countries’ external balance adjusted? • How does the adjustment affect the credibility of the euro area as a whole? • How far is it necessary to go to find the new balance? • There are also positive risks • Recent developments in the United States Erkki Liikanen

  18. Major internal differences in the euro area Erkki Liikanen

  19. Faster inflation than elsewhere and the resultant low level of real interest rates led to over-indebtedness in GIPS countries Developments in euro area countries’ consumer prices vis-à-vis Germany, 1999-2011. Erkki Liikanen

  20. Fiscal policy faces important challenges * UK and US figures are IMF projections for deficit. Sources: IMF, European Commission and announcements by countries . Erkki Liikanen

  21. Italy, Spain and France implementing strongest adjustments 2012 2013 Erkki Liikanen

  22. Italy, Spain and France implementing strongest adjustments 2012 2013 Erkki Liikanen

  23. Large differences in youth unemployment by country Erkki Liikanen

  24. Financial crisis affected different areas in different countries Erkki Liikanen

  25. Recent monetary policy measures Erkki Liikanen

  26. Monetary policy globally accommodative Central bank interest rates Central bank balance sheets Erkki Liikanen

  27. On Eurosystem monetary policy • Standard monetary policy measures • Key interest rates reduced on two occasions to 1%. • Non-standard monetary policy measures • Three-year longer-term refinancing operations in December and February • Expansion of eligible assets • Reduction of minimum reserve ratio 2% => 1% • Preliminary estimates suggest that measures have been effective Erkki Liikanen

  28. Refinancing operations by maturity Erkki Liikanen

  29. Bank of Finland’s claims relating to payment systems Erkki Liikanen

  30. Operation has eased interbank market tensions Banking risk indicators Money market indicators Erkki Liikanen

  31. Sovereign risk premia have also decreased 10-year Italian government bonds 10-year Spanish government bonds Erkki Liikanen

  32. Conclusion • Central bank measures can calm the markets • Recent measures have ensured bank liquidity • Operating environment continues to be challenging • Permanent resolution requires government action • Countries need to take advantage of the window for opportunities • Public finances need to be put back on a sustainable footing • Measures to strengthen growth potential are necessary • Efficiency of crisis management is assessed ex post • Timely exit strategies important part of overall action Erkki Liikanen

  33. Bank of Finland Bulletin 1/2012 contents • Main article: Monetary policy and the global economy • Cyclical situation and risks • Monetary and fiscal policy • Structural policy and macroeconomic imbalances • Additional articles: • Monetary policy transmission and debt in the euro area • Euro area economic policy coordination: what has been done, and why? • Quantitative easing in monetary policy Erkki Liikanen

More Related