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BRICS Economic Research Forum Conference

BRICS Economic Research Forum Conference. Eustáquio J. Reis IPEA, Brazil New Delhi, February 2012. Forum Agenda. Coping with the vagaries of capital flows Global savings to finance infrastructure Monetary policy coordination Economic prospects for developed economies Impacts on BRICS

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BRICS Economic Research Forum Conference

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  1. BRICS Economic Research Forum Conference Eustáquio J. Reis IPEA, Brazil New Delhi, February 2012

  2. Forum Agenda • Coping with the vagaries of capital flows • Global savings to finance infrastructure • Monetary policy coordination • Economic prospects for developed economies • Impacts on BRICS • Policy coordination possibilities

  3. Outline • Economic prospect for developed economies • Implications for BRICS • Possibilities of policy coordination • Fiscal • Trade • Finance • Long run perspectives

  4. Economic Prospects for Developed Economies • Growthslowdown in theaftermathofweakrecoverywithsignificantrisksofanother major downturn • Sovereigndebtcrisis in Europe • Fiscal tightening • Increasedsovereign spread • Consumerand business confidence • Domino effect (PIGIS) • Japanearthquake • Iran conflict

  5. IMF-Jan2012: Baseline Scenario

  6. DESA-WESP: Baseline Scenario

  7. DESA-WESP: Donwside Scenario

  8. Implications for BRICS • Trade shocks expeced to be mild • Trade volumes  moderate positive growth • Corrections in commodity prices surges last two years • Financial volatility • Speculative flows and exchange overvaluation • Reserve accumulation: costs and benefits • Capital flow regulation and restrictions  effectiveness?

  9. Policy coordination • Fiscal space • Monetary restriction • Brilateral agreements and regional trade arrengements • Financing infrastructure • International financial reforms • Multiple currencies • Global currency

  10. Long Run Prospects • Geography, culture, language • Size • Population and GDP • Regional leadership • Share of he “region” • Second partner • Staregic arms control • Long run • Investment rate • Schooling

  11. BRIC: Population, 1980-2050

  12. BRIC: Long Run Growth, 1980-2050(CEPII projections 2011-2050)

  13. BRIC: Average Saving Rates, 1980-2050(CEPII projections 2011-2050)

  14. BRIC: GDP per capita, 1980-2050(CEPII projections; WB PPP US$ 1985)

  15. BRIC: Avg Yrs of Schooling,1980-2050(CEPII projections; WB PPP US$ 1985)

  16. BRIC: GDP growth, 2008-2013(IMF forecast 2012-13)

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