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The Armchair Forecaster Andrew J. Buck Temple University 215-204-1985 215-204-8173 (FAX) buck@astro.ocis.temple.edu

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the armchair forecaster
The Armchair Forecaster

Andrew J. Buck

Temple University

215-204-1985

215-204-8173 (FAX)

buck@astro.ocis.temple.edu

slide2

Important Web LinksMy Home Pagehttp://oll.temple.edu/economicsInteractive Economics Databasehttp://bos.business.uab.edu/browse/bci_97.htmEconomic Indicators: The Conference Boardhttp://www.tcb-indicators.orgBuild Your Own Forecasting Modelhttp://fairmodel.econ.yale.eduCommentary, Regional and National Forecastshttp://www.dismal.comGeneral Economic Interesthttp://www.yardeni.com/welcome.htmlEuropean Economic Statisticshttp://europa.eu.int/en/comm/eurostatThe Economies of Asia and Latin Americahttp://www.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/asia/AsianHomepage.html

slide3

Forecasting and some basic economic paradigmsForecasting is the art of trying to see into the future on the basis of what we know about the present. In order to avoid the appearance of gazing into a crystal ball, we try to use paradigms of economic behavior to organize our thinking.Supply and Demand -Demand  P, QDemand  P, QSupply  P, QSupply  P, QFiscal PolicyTaxes  AD GDPGov't Spending  AD GDPMonetary Policy Res. Req.  MS i I AD GDP Disc. Rate  MS i I AD GDP Buy Bonds  MS i I AD GDPA Small Simulation

slide4

Some Features of the Domestic

and

World Economic Landscape

The U.S. Asia Brazil Europe

united states
United States

1998 Growth: Low of 2%, High of 5%

1999 Outlook

Weakness in Asia, Russia and Latin America

Stagnant Europe

Profit Squeeze

Consumer is a weakening engine of growth

brazil
Brazil
  • Too much short term foreign debt
  • What did they spend all those reales on?
  • Central Gov’t vs. States
  • Fiscal discipline
slide7
Asia
  • Overvalued Currencies
  • Too Much Foreign Debt
  • Risky Lending in Existing Assets
europe
Europe
  • Sacrificed Fiscal Autonomy on the Alter of a Unified Currency
  • Expensive, Inflexible Labor
  • Bright Spots: Ireland and Portugal
components of ilei
Components of ILEI
  • Interest Rate Spread
  • Money Supply
  • Average Work Week
  • New Orders, Consumer Goods
  • S&P 500
  • Joblessness
  • Vendor Performance
  • Housing Permits
  • Consumer Expectations
  • New Orders, Non-defense Capital Goods
lei the long view
LEI - The Long View
  • 6 - 9 months out
  • Booms and recessions
  • Recent Boom
recent history of lei
Recent History of LEI
  • 3 Consecutive Declines = Recession
  • Oct: 105.7
  • Nov: 106.3
  • Next Release: 2/2/99