Primavera PERT Master – The Risk Analysis Tool

1. Primavera PERT Master – The Risk Analysis Tool

2. Presentation Agenda • What is PERT Master ? • Project Risk Management Concepts • Introductory Demonstrations • Importing from Primavera • Quick Risk Templates • Running a Risk Analysis • Risk Register with schedule • Advanced Risk Management • Schedule cost loading techniques • Probabilistic cash flow and profitability breakeven

3. What is PERT Master ? Maximize Profit • PERT Master Focus • Specialist in Project Risk Management • Full Lifecycle risk solution • Faithful to project scheduling • PERT Master Vision • “Improved decision making through project intelligence” Management Reserve “Strategic Decisions” Mitigation Cost/Effort “Maximize Return” Total Project Cost Contingency “Proper Allocation” Budget / Schedule Estimate “Minimize Uncertainty”

4. Life Value Proposition PHASE 2 PHASE 3 S A N C T I O N PHASE 4 PHASE 1 PHASE 5 Opportunity(e.g. oil field) Alternative selection (rig A/B/C, own) FEEDFront End Engineering Design Execution Detailed Eng. & Procurement Operations Detailed Eng. & Procurement Wild Guess (WAG) -15% to +30% Estimate +/-10% Estimate +/- 3% Estimate No Estimate Uncertainty • High estimate uncertainty • Little Known about risk events • Estimate uncertainty – Low • Discrete risk events Capital Investment risk analysis Schedule based cost risk analysis Risk event / register analysis Risk event monitoring Market/Investment risk analysis “DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT” PLAN YOUR WORK WORK YOUR PLAN

5. Life Value Proposition CORPORATE REVENUE ANALYSIS PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS PROJECT ANALYSIS PHASE 2 PHASE 3 S A N C T I O N PHASE 4 PHASE 1 PHASE 5 Opportunity(e.g. oil field) Alternative selection (rig A/B/C, own) FEEDFront End Engineering Design Execution Detailed Eng. & Procurement Operations Detailed Eng. & Procurement WAG -15% to +30% Estimate +/-10% Estimate +/- 3% Estimate No Estimate Uncertainty • High estimate uncertainty • Little Known about risk events • Estimate uncertainty – Low • Discrete risk events Capital Investment risk analysis Schedule based cost risk analysis Risk event / register analysis Risk event monitoring Market/Investment risk analysis “DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT” PLAN YOUR WORK WORK YOUR PLAN

6. Risk Vs Schedule • Realistic /Most Likely • Aggressive / Optimistic • Cautious / Pessimistic • Scale to Fit

7. Types of Risks • Uncertainty • PERT Master handles uncertainty by using three point estimate distributions minimum, most likely and maximum • Risk Events • PERT Master handles risk events by using risk register to enter possible events along with estimates of each one’s probability and potential impacts on duration, cost and project quality Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure

8. Types of Risk - Uncertainty Duration/Cost E.g. How long does it take to do wiring?

9. Types of Risk Activity A E.g. Do we need to replace old wiring? ? Activity B Activity C

10. Branching – Probabilistic & Conditional Scenario: Renovate the Premises • Remove wiring (50% probability) • Repair wiring (40% probability) • Install new wiring (10% probability)

11. Template Quick Risk

12. Types Of Risks - Risk Events • Single Impact • Series of Impact • Multiple exclusive impacts • Multiple impacts to multiple activities

13. Risk Register

14. Risk Register

15. Monte Carlo Simulation • Range forms an envelope • One segment is selected for each envelope • Hidden critical paths revealed 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Min Likely Max

16. Monte Carlo Simulation ITERATION 1 • Range forms an envelope • One segment is selected for each envelope • Hidden critical paths revealed 10 DAYS 2 9 DAYS 3 14 DAYS 4 17 DAYS 5 11 DAYS 6 7 DAYS 7 10 DAYS 8 12 DAYS 9 6 DAYS 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 … Min Likely Max

17. PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology • Risk Ready State • Schedule : Sound logic • Scheduling errors • Risk Inputs • Estimate Uncertainty: “Quick Risk” • Risk Events: risk register • Risk Impacts • Map risks to tasks • Risk Analysis • Monte Carlo Simulation • Risk hot spots

18. PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology • Risk Response • Determination of Contingency • Mitigation Scenarios • Probabilistic cashflow

19. Plan Validation: Schedule Check

20. Initial Risk Inputs – Quick Risk Analysis

21. Accuracy with Ease

22. Risk Outputs