Mitigation of climate change in Finnish agriculture – help from FAO is needed!

1. Mitigation of climate change in Finnish agriculture – help from FAO is needed! Marja-Liisa Tapio-Bistrom NRD 10.11.2008

2. Finland • Surface area 338 419 km2 • forestry land 262 700 km2 (78%) • agricultural land 22 500 km2 (6.7%) • Population 5 300 000 • share of rural population about 30% • Population density 17.4 persons./km2 • (EU-27 114.7 persons/km2) • GDP: - 178.8 billion euros (€) - 33 803 €/capita • share of agriculture and forestry 2.6%

3. Finland – World’s northernmost agricultural country • Geographical location the greatest handicap • Growing season (in the picture) 180 - 120 days Temperature sum 1 300 - 400 degree days - Germany 2 000 - 1 600 degree days - Spain 2 800 - 2 400 degree days • Natural conditions reflected especially in yield levels → only about half of those in Central Europe

4. Typology of Finnish municipalities 2006 Urban (58) Urban-adjacent rural (89) Rural heartland (142) Sparsely populated rural (143) Source: MTT, Kajaani University Consortium of the University of Oulu and Finnish Area Research FAR

5. EU:n climate and energy package20 20 20 by 2020 • Finland should decrease by 16 % the GHG (ekv.) emissions in agricultural sector compared to the year 2005 (meaning in absolute emissions 6 Mt CO2ekv)

6. Agriculture • In the annual inventory of GHGs emmissions form agriculture are reported in three sectors: • Agriculture • LULUCF (Land use, land use change and Forestry) • Energysector (the energy use of agriculture)

7. GHG emissions from agriculture sector • Finland’s agricultural greenhouse gas emissions reported in the agriculture sector in 2006 were 5.6 Tg CO2 equivalents in total. • Agriculture is the third largest greenhouse gas emission source sector after the energy sector and industrial processes with an around 6.9% share of the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 • Emissions from agriculture include CH4 and N2O emissions.

8. Emissions from farm level Total 13,9 Mt CO2 Lähde: Bionova Engineering 2008

9. Agricultural emissions (sector Agriculture) from the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 are 7 % BUT15 % of the non-emission trade emissions

10. Agricultural GHG emissions in Finland consist of… • CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation of domestic livestock (28% of the total agricultural emissions) • CH4 (5%) and N2O emissions (9%) from manure management • Direct and indirect N2O emissions from agricultural soils (58%) • Direct N2O emissions from agricultural soils include emissions from synthetic fertilisers, manure applied to soils, biological nitrogen fixation of N-fixing crops, crop residues, sewage sludge application and cultivation of organic soils. • Indirect N2O emission sources include emissions from atmospheric deposition and from nitrogen leaching and run-off to watercourses.

11. Agricultural emissions have decreased • Agricultural emissions have decreased by 22% (1.5 Tg CO2 eq.) 1990-2006. • The main driver has been the overall change in the economy of agriculture, which has resulted in a decrease in the number of animals and an average increase in farm size.

12. How to understand the emissions 1? • From all reporting sectors organic agricultural soils as a whole central source 42 %, animals and manure 22 %, mineral soils 15 %, synthetic fertilizers and lime 9 % and energy production 10 % BUT • from agricultural reporting sector emissions are from animal digestion 28 %, manure 27 %, synthetic fertilizers 21 %, organic soils 19 %

13. How to understand the emissions 2? • all reporting sectors emissions from production lines: • 79 % from animal production (meat 51 % and milk production 28 %) and 18 % of food plant cultivation THE IMPORTANCE OF CONSUMPTION PATTERS

14. Emissions from manure management • Methane emissions from manure management have increased somewhat, despite the decrease in the number of animals, because more animals are kept in slurry based manure management systems, which have ten-fold methane emissions compared with solid storage or pasture. • Nitrous oxide emissions from manure management are on the contrary lower in slurry than in solid storage systems • Totally slurry systems have decreased emissions from manure • Methane could be considerabley decreased with biogas THE IMPORTANCE OF TECHNOLOGY CHOISE

15. Most important mitigation measures – based for costeffectiveness analysis 1 • General equilibrium model • takes into account the whole national economy and regional economy which is affected by a change in the agricultural sector • incorporates the adaptation of the economy • costeffectiveness was defined in unit €/t CO2 ekv,inrelation to BNP. • Permanent grass cultivation in organic soils • the emission rate is lower when grass is cultivated on organic soils in stead of for ex. grains • Modelled measure: 15 000 ha organic soils transferred from grain to grass 2008- 2015 and 140 000 ha 2014-2050 • Transformation of forests into fields is not allowed (deforestation) - No new fields, old fields transformed to other uses, the area based emissions decrease - Modelled measure : Stoppped deforestation of 9400 ha/ year • Decrease on the use of synthetic fertilizers by 20 % Lähde: Bionova Engineering 2008

16. Most important mitigation measures – based for costeffectiveness analysis 2 - Consequences • Permanent grass cultivation in organic soils • most organic soils are in South –West and West (40 %), the best agricultural area growing food grains and oil crops => food production will decrease, food imports will increase, GCG leakage • grass is in the west, cows are in the east • a number of farmers would be transformed to providers of environmental services

17. Most important mitigation measures – based for costeffectiveness analysis 3 - Consequences • Transformation of forests into fields is not allowed (deforestation) • animal producers will face difficulties in growing their unit size because no new land can be taken for manure spreading (economic consequences) • Decrease on the use of synthetic fertilizers by 20 % • no big impact on production (precisions agriculture?)

18. Organic agriculture? • reduction in synthetic fertilizer use will decrease N2O emissions from the soils (how much?) and fossil fuel use emissions from the production process BUT • only N2O reductions are calculated at present for the country in question and the sector • we need to go into life cycle approach

19. Lifecycle approach ??? 1 • we must talk about lifecycle approach in food systems – carbon print of the production system and the food system • for.ex. Finnish poultry and pig production is based on imported protein fodder from LATAM – we should pay for the emissions – fodder import payment – funds used for mitigation in developing countries?

20. Lifecycle approach ??? 2 • consumptions patterns are mainly affected by price – the aim must be the internalization of environmental externalities in agricultural production – the real price of meat would increased considerably – decrease of demand would have a direct impact on GHG emissions

21. Carbon trading in agriculture? • verification of information and monitoring difficult • governance costs very high A solution??????? • certified organic agriculture could be used in carbon trading

22. Mitigation in agriculture is • location specific • technology dependent • policy intensive