Parental education and child health evidence from a natural experiment in taiwan
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Parental Education and Child Health: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Taiwan. Shin-Yi Chou Lehigh University & NBER Jin-Tan Liu ( 劉錦添) National Taiwan University & NBER Michael Grossman City University of New York Graduate Center & NBER Theodore Joyce Baruch College & NBER.

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Parental education and child health evidence from a natural experiment in taiwan

Parental Education and Child Health: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Taiwan

Shin-Yi Chou

Lehigh University & NBER

Jin-Tan Liu (劉錦添)

National Taiwan University & NBER

Michael Grossman

City University of New York Graduate Center & NBER

Theodore Joyce

Baruch College & NBER


臺灣過去50年,兩大公共政策 Experiment in Taiwan

  • 1968年 九年國教

  • 1995年 全民健保

    Duflo (2001), “Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia:Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment,” American Economic Review, 91, 795-813.

    Currie and Moretti (2002),”Mother’s Education and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital: Evidence from College Openings,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 1495-1532.

    Clark and Hsieh (2000), “Schooling and Labor Market Impact of the 1968 Nine-Year Education Program in Taiwan,” Working Paper, Department of Economics, Princeton University


Education and health
Education and Health: Experiment in Taiwan

  • Michael Grossman (1972), “On the Concept of Health Capital and The Demand for Health,” Journal of Political Economy, 80, 223-255.

  • Michael Grossman (2000), “The Human Capital Model,” in Culyer and Newhouse eds. Handbook of Health Economics, Vol. 1. Elesevier Science B.V.

  • Michael Grossman and Robert Kaestner (1997), “Effects of Education on Health,” in Behrman and Stacery eds. The Social Benefits of Education, University of Michigan Press.


Education and health1
Education and Health Experiment in Taiwan

  • Michael Grossman, “Education and Nonmarket Outcomes,” in Hanushek and Welch eds. Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier Science.

  • (NBER working papers No. 11582).

  • Conceptual Foundations:

  • 1. Productive efficiency

  • 2. Allocative efficiency

  • Causality?

  • Y = X B + U

  • “The third variable” may cause schooling and health to vary in the same direction.

  • “The time preference hypothesis”


Empirical methods
Empirical Methods: Experiment in Taiwan

  • 1. Include past health measures in regressions

  • 2. Siblings or twins samples:

  • control for unmeasured third variables

  • differences in outcomes due to differences in

  • schooling between siblings or twins.

  • 3. Instrumental variables method (IV):

  • variables are correlated with schooling but not

  • correlated with omitted third variables, such as

  • ability, inherited genetic traits, and time

  • preference.


Instrumental variable iv
Instrumental Variable (IV) Experiment in Taiwan

  • Y = X B + U

  • OLS is biased when U is correlated with X

  • Use an IV Z for X

  • βIV = (Z’X)-1 (Z’Y)

  • βIV is consistent when Z satisfies two conditions:

  • 1) Z is uncorrelated with U

  • 2) Z is correlated with X


Instrumental variable iv1
Instrumental Variable (IV) Experiment in Taiwan

  • Random encouragement designs:

  • 1. To test the effect of flu vaccine on flu:

  • The IV (the letter) is randomly assigned,

  • but not the treatment (flu vaccine).

  • 2. Distance to hospital with operating facilities

  • as an IV for surgery in heart attacks.

  • 3. Distance to school as an IV for schooling

  • 4. Policy Reforms


How to find iv
How to find IV? Experiment in Taiwan

  • 1.Lleras-Muney (2005), Compulsory Education

  • Laws from 1915 to 1939

  • US Censuses of Population for 1960, 1970, 1980

  • The effect of education on mortality

  • 2. Arendt (2005), Compulsory School Reform in

  • Denmark in 1958 and 1975

  • The impact of schooling on self-rated health

  • 3. Spasojevic (2003), 1950 Swedish

  • Comprehensive School Reform.


Difference in difference dd estimators
Difference-in-Difference (DD)Estimators Experiment in Taiwan

  • “Natural Experiments” Actual policy changes to identify the effects of policies on outcomes

  • DD: to compare outcomes before and after a policy change for a group affected by the change (Treatment Group, T) to a group not affected by the change (Control Group, C).

  • DD = [E(Y1 ︳T) – E(Y0︳T)] –

  • [E(Y1 ︳C) – E(Y0︳C)]

  • Yi, t = α+ β2 Time + β3 Treatment

  • + β4 (Time* Treatment) + ui,t


DD: Experiment in Taiwan

  • Meyer, Bruce D. (1995), “Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(2), 151-161.

  • Angrist, Joshua D. and Alan B. Krueger (1999), “Empirical Strategies in Labor Economics,” Handbook of Labor Economics.

  • MIT, Harvard:

  • Jonathon, Gruber

  • Duflo, Esther


前言 Experiment in Taiwan

  • 探討主題:Does the parents’ attainment of education affect the health of their children?

  • 研究困難:Unobserved characteristics that affect both the parents’ education levels and the health of their children.

  • 本文實證方法:Compulsory schooling laws in Taiwan affects the levels of Parental education, but is uncorrelated with children’s health


? Experiment in Taiwan

本文大綱

  • 1968年臺灣九年國民義務教育

  • Data and sample

  • Effect of 1968-Reform on Education

  • Effect of Parental Education on child health outcomes


研究背景 Experiment in Taiwan :1968年延長九年國民義務教育

  • Extended from 6 years to 9 years

  • 140 new high schools were opened

    • Number of junior high schools per thousand primary school graduates increased from 0.8 (1967-1968 academic year) to 1.3 (1968-1969 academic year)

    • The percentage of primary school graduates who entered junior high school increased from 56% (1967-1968 academic year) to 77% (1968-1969 academic year)

  • Intensity of school construction varies across regions.


( Experiment in Taiwan 每1000位國小畢業生中國中的數目)

Junior High Schools per Thousand Primary School Graduates Source: Ministry of Education, Educational Statistics of Republic of China.


( Experiment in Taiwan 每位國小畢業生進入國中的比例)

Number of First Year JH Students to Number of Primary School Graduates

Source: Ministry of Education, Educational Statistics of Republic of China.


Program Experiment in Taiwan Intensity in 1968

(1968年新設國中數目佔1967年每1000 位12歲至14歲學童的比率)

* Program intensity is defined as number of new junior high schools in 1968

per thousand children ages 12-14 in 1967.


Econometric method
Econometric Method: Experiment in Taiwan

  • 控制組/對照組: children over/under the age of 11 in 1968

  • Validation of our strategy:

    • The higher the program intensity is, the larger the effect of education reform

    • Program intensity was independent with initial schooling levels


Enrollment Rate Experiment in Taiwan

Program

Enrollment Rate in 1966 vs. Program Intensity Source: Ministry of Education, Educational Statistics of Republic of China.


Program Experiment in Taiwan

Percentage of Workers in Agriculture in 1967 vs. Program Intensity Source: The data on percentage of workers in agriculture are from the Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook.


Data and sample
Data and Sample Experiment in Taiwan

  • Birth and death certificates, 1978-1999, total 22 years

  • Sample Size: 5,576,868~6,099,832.

  • Child Health outcomes include the probabilities of:low/very low birth weight(less than 2500 grams/1500 grams), pre-maturity, mortality,etc.

  • Sample: women or men satisfying these:

    • Between 1- and 20-years old in 1968

    • Between 22- and 45-years old when they or their wives gave birth in 1978-1999


Effect of 1968 education reform on education
Effect of 1968 Education Reform on Education Experiment in Taiwan

  • Basic approach:

  • Sijt is the number of years of formal schooling completed by mother (or father) i born in city/county j with her/his child born in year t.

  • Indices: i: mother (or father), j: city/county, t: year

  • C: cohort dummies,

  • P: program intensity,

  • T: treatment group dummy,

  • R: region of birth(city/county),

  • Y: year dummies, 1978 is an omitted year

19

19

1979

l =1979


β ( Experiment in Taiwan

)

)

β (

Effects of Education Reform on Parents’ Educational Attainment (Basic Approach)


1968 Experiment in Taiwan 年九年國教對個人教育成就的影響:

  • Education reform not only has a positive impact on the educational attainment of the treatment groups, but also has a larger impact for the younger women.

  • The 12-14 year-olds may not be a pure control group.

  • Education reform has a bigger impact on father’s educational attainment than on mother’s.

  • Education reform had a larger impact on the education of younger fathers.


1968 Experiment in Taiwan 年九年國教對個人教育成就的影響(續):

  • Full specification: replace P x T by P x C(Program Intensity)

  • Coefficient series {bk}:

    • decreases sharply when k=13 (13 years old in year 1968)

    • fluctuates near 0 when k=14 ~ 19

    • all positive for k=0 ~ 11, and decreases from 0 to 11

1999

19

k=1979

l=1979


Mothers Experiment in Taiwan

Fathers

Coefficients of the Interactions between the Age in 1968

and Program Intensity in the Years of Schooling Regression


1968 Experiment in Taiwan 年九年國教對教育成就的影響

  • Restricted Estimation: assume bk=0 when k ³15.

  • We delete the cohort aged 12-14 from our sample.

  • The F-ratios are 15.73 and 16.96 for mother’s and father’s samples, respectively, when the enrollment rate and the percentage of agricultural share are employed as regressors.

  • for every junior high school constructed per 1000 children between the ages of 12 and 14,

    • Mothers 0-5, 6-11: receive 1.0 and 0.72 additional years

    • Fathers 0-5, 6-11: receive 0.84 and 0.77 additional years


Effect of parental education on child health outcome
Effect of Parental Education on Child Health Outcome Experiment in Taiwan

  • Basic approach in the first stage

    • Under OLS estimation, higher parental educational attainments significantly reduce the risk of all adverse health outcomes (prematurity, etc.)

    • Under the 2SLS estimation, mother’s years of schooling shows significant impacts only on low and very low birthweight and prematurity.

    • Under the OLS estimation, father’s years of schooling has similar effect as mother’s.

    • Under 2SLS, father’s years of schooling has smaller effect as mother’s.


Effects of Parental Schooling on Child Health Outcomes: Experiment in Taiwan

OLS and TSLS (Basic Approach in the First Stage)


Effect of parental education on child health outcome1
Effect of Parental Education on Child Health Outcome Experiment in Taiwan

  • Restricted estimation in the first stage

    • Similar to previous results except that father’s years of schooling reduces infant and postneonatal mortality.


Effects of Parental Schooling on Child Health Outcomes: Experiment in Taiwan

OLS and TSLS (Restricted Estimation in the First Stage)


Further questions
Further questions: Experiment in Taiwan

  • 1. Control group, treatment group

  • Age:

  • 2. Clustering

  • 3. Group data regression

  • Weights?

  • 4. Mother’s education vs. Father’s education


報告完畢,敬請指教 Experiment in Taiwan


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