The replacement of existing French nuclear generation facilities Bernard Dupraz

1. ENC 2002 – Lille – October 2002 The replacement of existing French nuclear generation facilities Bernard Dupraz Group Operating Vice President EDF Generation and Trading 1

2. Existing EDF nuclear power plants • A total capacity of 63 000 MW - 58 reactors - all base-load output - part of semi-base-load output • EDF nuclear power plant fleet - young (17 years old on average) - competitive France has no need for any new base-load facilities until the replacement of the existing ones 2

3. French NPP replacement strategy Key issues • The power plants replacing existing facilities will be in operation until the end of the 21st century • There are deep uncertainties regarding fuel prices and environmental restrictions within this time span It is essential to keep all options open We must retain the possibility of replacing many existing nuclear facilities with new nuclear power plants 3

4. French NPP replacement strategy Key issues • Existing facilities were built within a very short period of time 1979 - 1990 (11 years) : 50 000 MW (80% of the nuclear capacity) It has a considerable impact on the construction rate of new facilities • EDF’s replacement strategy will have to take into particular consideration : - The life span of existing facilities - The emergence of new reactor designs • Generation 3+ (EPR, AP1000 …) - commercially available by 2010 • Generation 4 - commercially available by 2030/2040 4

5. French NPP replacement strategy Life span of existing facilities • EDF will seek to extend the operating period of its existing plants for as long as possible - A 30-year operating period is already a reality - Extension to a 40-year operating period is highly probable - the French Safety Authority will issue its decision by 2005 during the 30-year safety reassessment of the 900 MW plant series • Life extension beyond 40 years - The Safety Authority will not announce its decision before 2015 - In the case of a 40-year span, plant shut-down would start in 2020 at a rate of 5000 MW/ year for a period of 10 years 5

6. French NPP replacement strategy Key objectives Two essential objectives must be incorporated into the replacement strategy • An open and flexible approach to the gradual construction of future generation facilities • Development of future generation facilities at a gradual pace 6

7. A flexible approach to the construction of the future fleet In the face of an uncertain future, a flexible approach must be adopted with • A variety of tested technologies - the technical problems of other technologies than light water technologies (fast breeder or HTR) should not be overlooked • Diversified designs making up the nuclear fleet • The ability to include innovative nuclear technologies in the future system 7

8. A flexible approach to the construction of the future fleet New reactor designs Two generations of reactor • Generation 3+ • Generation 4 8

9. A flexible approach to the construction of the future fleet New reactor designs « Generation 3+ » For example: • EPR - developed by Framatome ANP, EDF and the German utilities • AP 1000 - developed by Westinghouse • These reactors: • Will be ready to start commercial operation in around 2010 • Have already been certified by the Safety Authority • Are much more advanced in terms of nuclear safety than current reactors in the event of a serious accident • Can compete with combined-cycle gas technology (around 30 €/MWh) 9

10. A flexible approach to the construction of the future fleet New reactor designs « Generation 4 » • International co-operation over the past 3 years has been based on 4 main criteria : nuclear safety - competitive strength – sustainability -security • Their commercial release date - by 2030/2040 - is fundamental in developing a replacement strategy for the existing fleet • In France, the prospective review (CHARPIN report-July 2000) singles out two « Generation 4 » designs : • HER1 (First-generation high efficiency reactor) - commercial series could be initiated in around 2025, with start-up scheduled for around 2035 • HER2 (Second-generation high efficiency reactor) - needs to make further scientific progress 10

11. Gradual development of future nuclear facilities Whereas the current EDF fleet was developed within 10 years, number of reasons support its gradual replacement • Financial reasons • Long-term strategic reasons - need for open and flexible choices and diversification of the future nuclear fleet, in so far as new Generation 4 designs will not be commercially available before 2030/2040 • Industrial reasons - avoid the « accordion effect » on the nuclear industry (15 years of extremely intense activity, followed by 20 to 25 years of less activity) 11

12. Analysis of three scenarios • Considering the hypothetical base-load capacity of 75 000 MW by the year 2050, a nuclear capacity of 60 000 MW would account for - 80% of base-load (as against 100% at present) - 60% of total generation (as against almost 80% at present) Based on this hypothesis, 3 scenarios have been analysed 12

13. Analysis of three scenarios Scenario 1 13

14. Analysis of three scenarios Scenario 2 14

15. Analysis of three scenarios Scenario 3 15

16. Conclusions • Due to the speed at which existing French facilities were built (50000 MW from 1979 to 1990), number of reasons support their gradual replacement over a period of 20 to 30 years • This gradual replacement calls for a large number of existing facilities to have their plant life extended to 50 or 60 years • It would be highly risky to rely on « Generation 4 » reactors, which are not yet available, for the replacement of the whole nuclear fleet • It is crucial to provide the following guarantees - being ready to commission a series of « Generation 3+ » reactors by 2020/2025, i.e. being ready to initiate this series by 2010/2015 - having a tried and tested model available by this date 16