US subprime credit crisis and its implications from a corporate financing point of view
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US subprime credit crisis and its implications from a corporate financing point of view Thilo Kusch, Chief Financial Officer. 15th CEO Summit Röjtökmuzsaj 24 April, 200 8. US subprime credit crisis – how we got there?. Economic Environment. Reaction of financial institutions.

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15th ceo summit r jt kmuzsaj 24 april 200 8

US subprime credit crisis and its implications from a corporate financing point of viewThilo Kusch, Chief Financial Officer

15th CEO Summit Röjtökmuzsaj24 April, 2008

Us subprime credit crisis how we got there
US subprime credit crisis – how we got there? corporate financing point of view

Economic Environment

Reaction of financial institutions

  • Low interest rates

  • Property bubble

  • Deterioration of financing standards

  • Sluggish regulation

Excessive financing – search for yield

  • Financial innovation

  • Lack of transparency

Spreading risks via securitization where the original risk can not be seen

Tightening credit conditions

  • Burst of property bubble

Problems in fulfilling subprime mortgage obligations

Us subprime crisis and its spreading in the global financial system
US subprime crisis and its spreading in the global financial system

Problems in fulfilling subprime mortgage obligations

Losses of financial intermediaries and investors

Reassessing risks, and risk-taking (banks, funds, investors)

Increase in counter-party risk, losses of confidence

Cost of financing has increased

Financing possibilities have narrowed

Impact on financial markets and real economy

Effect on the capital markets
Effect on the Capital markets system

  • Harder to raise financing both on equity and debt markets: public transactions (IPO, bond issuance) are delayed, because of increased costs and low demand of securities

    • Global debt issuance collapsed in first quarter 2008

    • In Q1 2008 thenumber of abandoned IPO’s jumped

  • Investors are strongly selective, but the demand for good quality assets and transactions may even increase:Visa IPO in February 2008 was the USA’s greatest IPO ever, 40% surge in equity price following the official listing on NYSE

Impact in the cee region and hungary
Impact in the CEE region and Hungary system

  • CEE banks did not have significant exposure to US subprime credit market

  • Risk appetite of investors deteriorated: investors partially moved to safe markets from the region

  • Asset prices came under pressure

  • Due to weaker macro-fiscal conditions, heavier equilibrium problems and unstable business environment, Hungary is deeper affected by the financial turmoil than its regional peer-group

Overview of the financing environment in Hungary

  • Due to the weak financing capacities of the domestic sectors, the country is strongly exposed to foreign financing

  • Unfavorable global environment

  • Unfavorable local environment: HUF interest rates increase significantly

  • Implication: economic actors who have financing needs, it is more costly to get to funds from the debt market

Possible reactions to reduce risks for companies
Possible reactions to reduce risks for companies system

  • Restructuring the loan portfolio:

    • Shorten the maturity

    • Raise the share of FX loans

    • Raise the share of loans with floating interest rate

Modifies the risk-taking of a company

  • Cash pooling – optimising the cash balances of group companies

  • Enhancing the working capital management

Possible advantages depend on the current status of efficiency

No superior ‘after-crisis solution’ exists.

The negative effects of a similar turmoil can be alleviated most efficiently by prudent risk management, well before the emergence of such a credit crunch.

Capital structure of magyar telekom
Capital structure of Magyar Telekom system

  • The company’s strategic priority remains finding further value-creating acquisitions, require a flexible balance sheet net debt ratioin the range of 30-40%

  • Magyar Telekom shares are listed both on BSE and NYSE

  • The net debt ratio 31% EoY 2007 significant debt portfolio (total debt of HUF 367 bn)

  • Financing need of Magyar Telekom arises in connection with

    • the annual dividend payment (HUF 80.2 bn in 2008)

    • maturing components of the loan portfolio

    • decreased by MT Group’s strong cash generation

Effects on the financing of magyar telekom
Effects on the financing of Magyar Telekom system

  • Bank loans and financing from the international markets has became more expensive

  • The following financing characteristics could help lessen the effects:

  • available shelf facilities in sufficient amount

  • loan portfolio with longer maturity/maturities spread over time

  • only a part of the debt needs to be renewed under the unfavourable (and possible temporary) circumstances

  • significant portion of the debt portfolio in debt instruments bearing fix interest

  • diversified financing sources the turmoil might affect various creditors and investors differently

  • market push on dividend payment more difficult to move towards the optimal capital structure under the changed circumstances

Continuous risk management in the past is paying back now, it could decrease the effect of the credit crunch in short or even in medium run.

Dive on the m a market
Dive on the M&A market system

  • The value of announced M&A in Q1 2008 was down 40 percent from the same period last year, resulting the least active first quarter since 2004

  • The drop in M&A volumes has been accompanied by a sharp drop in activity in the debt and equity markets

  • The unfavourable stock price levels globally motivate potential sellers to put off deals until market recovery

  • The end of the credit boom and wild swings in the stock market have made M&A deals harder to finance and harder to value

  • The credit squeeze has been particularly felt in private equity deals, whose value has dropped 71 per cent year-on-year

For Magyar Telekom the effect is twofold: (i) less acquisition opportunity may arise, but (ii) less competition is expected from the private equities

Roundtable discussion topics
Roundtable discussion topics system

  • I.Role of financing – can capital market risks be excluded?

  • II. Is there a balance of power between banks and companies?

  • Why do the companies have to bear the burden of the banks’ excessive risk-taking? Lessons of Magyar Telekom…