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Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers

Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers. UNICEF Workshop Bangkok 11 November 2008. Michael Samson msamson@epri.org.za. Food prices have risen sharply in the past year….

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Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers

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  1. Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers UNICEF WorkshopBangkok 11 November 2008 Michael Samson msamson@epri.org.za

  2. Food prices have risen sharply in the past year… Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation * April 2008

  3. …precipitating a wave of sometimes violent protests around the world Source: United Nations World Food Programme

  4. … food price inflation eroded social protection measures aimed at protecting the poor… Baseline value in March 2006 Consumption purchasing power in March 2008 Basic grains purchasing power in March 2008 SOURCE: EPRI based on data provided by Statistics South Africa and SOCPEN

  5. The greatest vulnerability is concentrated in Africa and South Asia Source: United Nations World Food Programme

  6. African agricultural productivity growth has significantly lagged the rest of the world USA Africa Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation

  7. African agricultural productivity growth has significantly lagged the rest of the world • WHY? • Risk • Scale • Investment USA Africa Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation

  8. Impact of social cash transfers

  9. Most cash transfers buy predominantly food SOURCE: IFPRI

  10. Social transfers also foster developmental education and health outcomes SOURCE: IFPRI

  11. Human capital development promotes pro-poor growth

  12. Human capital development promotes pro-poor growth Increase wages 60-130% more than the cost of transfers South Africa

  13. Social transfers in South Africa support economic growth along multiple dimensions • Sub-Saharan Africa’s oldest social transfer programme • Costs 3% of GDP • Substantial impact on poverty reduction • Extensive studies of growth outcomes • Human capital • Labour markets • Macroeconomics South Africa

  14. South Africa’s social pension reduces poverty and destitution substantially

  15. The distribution of social benefits in South Africa SOURCE: South African National Treasury and Statistics South Africa

  16. Social protection improves labour market participation and employment n=3462 n=1795

  17. Propensity score matching techniques provide ex post evidence on agricultural resilience 13% agricultural attrition 8% agricultural attrition Propensity score

  18. Lesotho demonstrates how social pensions build human capital for children • The world’s newest universal social pension, implemented in 2004 • Formal evaluations still in progress • Costs 1.4% of GDP • Supports children increasing living with older people Lesotho

  19. Social protection promotes better risk management and encourages investment

  20. Social protection supports local economies • A transformed pension system since democracy in 1990 • Near-universal take-up (85%) • Costs 0.7% of GDP • Supports labour market participation, particularly for women Namibia

  21. Social protection reinforces social cohesion, facilitating economic reforms that promote pro-poor growth EXAMPLES • Mauritius • Botswana • Nepal • Papua New Guinea Mauritius

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