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Credit and Fixed Income

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  1. Credit and Fixed Income 30 January 2010 Philip Barleggs

  2. Global Economic Outlook

  3. Growth Outlook – US Leading Indicators Point to Strong Growth in the US but questions remain about sustainability

  4. Growth Outlook – Europe Sentiment suggests softer recovery in Europe

  5. Inflation Outlook Large Output Gap should act as a Drag on Core Inflation

  6. Credit Outlook Supportive Drivers Economic Recovery & Stimulus packages De-leveraging continues, fundamental improve Comparative position versus Sovereigns improving Investment inflows

  7. Credit Outlook Risk Factors Sovereign debt crisis deepens How overweight are investors already?

  8. Global Government Bond Strategy

  9. Global Credit Strategy

  10. Macro Themes for 2010 Central Banks – Lower for longer Asset Reflation – Substantial cash reserves put to work Focus Turns to Fundamental Data – Scaling back of official intervention

  11. Investment Themes for 2010 Higher Yields Narrower Credit Spreads Lower Volatility Inflation: Is it Cheap?