Credit and Fixed Income 30 January 2010 Philip Barleggs
Growth Outlook – US Leading Indicators Point to Strong Growth in the US but questions remain about sustainability
Growth Outlook – Europe Sentiment suggests softer recovery in Europe
Inflation Outlook Large Output Gap should act as a Drag on Core Inflation
Credit Outlook Supportive Drivers Economic Recovery & Stimulus packages De-leveraging continues, fundamental improve Comparative position versus Sovereigns improving Investment inflows
Credit Outlook Risk Factors Sovereign debt crisis deepens How overweight are investors already?
Macro Themes for 2010 Central Banks – Lower for longer Asset Reflation – Substantial cash reserves put to work Focus Turns to Fundamental Data – Scaling back of official intervention
Investment Themes for 2010 Higher Yields Narrower Credit Spreads Lower Volatility Inflation: Is it Cheap?