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Assessing Regional Carbon Budgets: Emissions from Forests, Agriculture, and Anthropogenic Sources

This study focuses on regional carbon budgets for natural and managed lands, analyzing variations in carbon sources and sinks, primarily between northern forests and southern agricultural sectors' fossil fuel CO2 emissions. It evaluates model uncertainties in forest carbon exchange, assesses forest disturbance impacts, and explores agricultural carbon exports and non-CO2 emissions. Additionally, it identifies funding gaps for future investigations into CO2 uncertainty, river discharge effects, pest disturbances, and non-CO2 gas management, emphasizing the need for enhanced verification in GHG reductions.

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Assessing Regional Carbon Budgets: Emissions from Forests, Agriculture, and Anthropogenic Sources

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  1. Western Regional Breakout Goal: Regional C budgets for natural and managed lands and anthropogenic emissions Forests dominant in north while agriculture and fossil fuel CO2 emissions dominant in South Hypotheses: Forest source/sinks vary with disturbance a major factor Pasture/range largely neutral but climate sensitive Agricultural activities dominated by large carbon exports, uncertain C storage, non-CO2 gases

  2. Current activities: • Bottom up: • Evaluation of model uncertainty in forest carbon exchange • NASA-CASA, BIOM-BGC, MC1, CLM-CN • Summation of comparison of fossil fuel CO2 estimates (VULCAN, CARB, EIA) • Evaluation of Forest Disturbance • TM-based through 1985-2007 (Bob Kennedy) • BIOMBGC - MTBS (USGS) -fire, cutting • Inclusion of state inventories for non-CO2 gases • Top-down: • Tower data limited before 2006: Trinidad, Scripps • ORCA (2006), CALGEM (2007) • non-CO2 synthesis project and state efforts

  3. Future (unfunded) Topics • ffCO2 uncertainty: 14CO2 measurements • Evaluation of river discharge to costal zone (%? NPP) • Pest specific disturbance studies (Pine beetle) • Prediction ? (thinning, fire frequency) • Agriculture diagnosis • Carbon export in crops, residue management • Non-CO2 gas focus (N2O: N-addition CH4:livestock) • Suggestion: Leverage state-funded activities • California AB-32 mandated GHG reductions require verification

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