1 / 55

BEVOORRADINGSZEKERHEID IN BELGIË

BEVOORRADINGSZEKERHEID IN BELGIË. Prof. Dr. ir . Ronnie Belmans , K.U. Leuven. Security of electricity supply "Can we keep the lights on in Belgium?" . Ronnie Belmans Professor KU Leuven. The European Framework. Sustainability. Competitiveness & affordability. Security of supply.

csilla
Download Presentation

BEVOORRADINGSZEKERHEID IN BELGIË

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. BEVOORRADINGSZEKERHEID IN BELGIË Prof. Dr. ir. Ronnie Belmans, K.U. Leuven

  2. Security of electricity supply "Can we keep the lights on in Belgium?" Ronnie Belmans Professor KU Leuven

  3. The EuropeanFramework Sustainability Competitiveness& affordability Security of supply

  4. The EuropeanFramework Primary Energy Sources Regulation of Monopolies Reliability and Quality Innovation and Competitiveness Internal Market Security of Supply Capacity Low Prices And Efficiency Lisbon Agenda Environment Climate Change Kyoto and Post-Kyoto Nature Preservation

  5. Climate Action Targets: • A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels; • Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources to 20% • A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency. -20% -20% +20%

  6. Climate Action Targets: Where are we now? -20% -20% +20%

  7. Renewables On track Binding national targets by 2020 - Belgium 13% • End 2012: • Wind: 1335 MW • PV: 1790 MW = POWER

  8. Decarbonisation On track Effects: • Reduced emission due to economic crisis • More renewable energy Energy Roadmap 2050 Reducing Greenhouse gas emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050

  9. Energy Efficiency Not on track Reaction: Energy Efficiency Directive: Binding targets • Public bodies need to buy energy-efficient buildings, products and services, and refurbish 3% of their buildings each year to drastically reduce their energy consumption. • Energy utilities have to encourage end users to cut their energy consumption through efficiency improvements • Industryexpected to become more aware of energy-saving possibilities, with large companies required to undertake energy audits every 3 years.

  10. First conclusion Increasing energy consumption with trend towards more electrification Can generation and grid follow?

  11. Ageing assets Source: RWE (CIRED2007) Source: PB Power/IBM (based on data UK DSOs) Source: KEMA (based on data Dutch DSO) Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting - Bremen, Germany

  12. Belgium Nuclear phase out

  13. E.on shut down?

  14. Belgium Nuclear phase out • Federal Act of 31 January 2003 • Prohibited the building of new nuclear power plants • Limited the operating lives of existing ones to 40 years (to 2014-2025) • Possibility to be overridden by CREG if Belgium's security of supply is threatened. • Effect: Uncertain investment climate no significant investments

  15. Belgium Nuclear phase out • 11 march 2011: Fukushima • 15 march 2011: German Nuclear phase out plan • 8 plants shut down (5,065 MW) • Complete phase out by 2022 • Summer 2012: Doel 3 (1.006 MW) and Tihange 2 (1.008 MW) closed due to possible cracks, in the tank containing the reactor’s core.

  16. Importance of nuclear power in Belgium Energy produced in 2011 [%]

  17. Consequences: Generated Electricity Average Production September 2011 vs 2012 exporting region importing region

  18. Consequences: Generated Electricity • Adjustments product mix: • Nuclear power partly replaced by coal • Additional capacity of renewables • Still total production < demand Belgium depended on import exporting region importing region

  19. What about transmission No margin left Nuclear: loss of 2 GW (vessel cracks) Nuclear: currently 1 GW planned outage (Doel 4) E.onVilvoorde: 385 MW CCGT out of operation (jan 2014) Interconnection capacity: 3.500 MW Belgium dependency on imports Winter periods Finding sellers

  20. Situation last year: winter 2011-2012 • Forecast said: • Under severe conditions regarding load (temperature) and generation availability, Belgium might have to rely on structural imports from neighbouringcountries • No lack of energy on the European scale No problem to import

  21. Situation this year: winter 2012-2013 • Forecast says: • Belgium: no margin left • Nuclear capacity • Shut down conventional power plants • German nuclear moratorium, it is possible that the necessary energy is not available in extreme winter conditions Possible problem to import

  22. Europe when facing extreme winter conditions No Import Required Imports at least one week during winter Weekly Imports Required

  23. What if things go wrong? • Two critical situations can arise: 1.) Predictable shortage when local generation is insufficient to cover consumption, e.g., at the peak time of the day (traditionally after sunset, around 6:15 p.m. in winter).

  24. What if things go wrong? • Two critical situations can arise: 2.) Unexpected incident leading to a major imbalance • Germany: 4 November 2006 • Impact on Belgium: • 800MW of power wasinterrupted (10% demand) • Quick-start generation units were brought online

  25. Security of supply • Who is responsible: • The government, represented by the Minister for Energy • Power generators/suppliers obliged to balance generation with consumption in its portfolio. • TSO provides services to maintain a constant balance between generation and consumption in its control area.

  26. Who can solve the problem? • The market • TSO • Smart Grids • Consumers • VPP

  27. Who can solve the problem: the market? • Consequences for the market price? • Summer period 2011 vs 2012 • 5 day moving average price Belpex Tihange 2 Doel 3 • Price effect moderate

  28. Who can solve the problem: the market? • Consequences for the Belpex hourly traded volume? • Summer period 2011 vs 2012 • 5 day moving average • Volumes on the Belpex have grown 21% year-on-year • Traded volume: 20.8 % of the Belgian load

  29. Who can solve the problem: TSO? “Keep the lights on”

  30. Who can solve the problem: TSO? Responsibilities: • Exploitation and maintenance transmission grid • Constant monitoring of system conditions • Ensure stable frequency level (50 Hz) • Ensure stable voltage levels • Grid investements • Ensure security of supply • Facilitate market • Accomodate generation • Interconnections with other control zones

  31. Who can solve the problem: TSO? • Constant monitoring of system conditions • State estimation • To get best possible picture of system conditions • Find a best-fit load flow • Based on metered values • Contingency analysis • N-1 security rule • One accident cannot bring the system in danger • Redundancy

  32. Frequency • Ensure stable frequency level (50 Hz) • Balance generation & demand • Generation>Demand  Frequency ↗ • Generation<Demand  Frequency ↘ • 5 steps to tackle a frequency drop in UCTE: Who goes first into the dark?  Belgian load shedding plan is determined by law. http://staatsbladclip.zita.be/staatsblad/wetten/2005/08/18/wet-2005011264.html

  33. Frequency Source:Elia System Operator N.V.

  34. Who can solve the problem: TSO? • Primary control (0-30 seconds) • Compensate for short-term unbalances at local level • Stabilize frequency within range around set point • Full automatic control • e.g. -Generation units with speed control -Start-up/shutdown of pumping units • Provided by many power plants • Primary reserves in former UCTE: 3000MW • cfr. outage of 2 largest plants • of which ±100 MW reserved in Belgium

  35. Who can solve the problem: TSO? • Secondary control (30 sec – 15 min) • Control zone with a contingency acts to restore balance • Adjusting output and start-up of reserve units • 137 MW reserved in Belgium • TSO sends signal to providers of secondary reserves • Every 10 seconds • Providers respond automatically • Typically gas fired CC units and pumped storage • Compensation • Reservation Price • Activation Price

  36. Who can solve the problem: TSO? • Tertiary control (> 15 min) • Free & assist secondary control • Manually controlled • Also interruptible load contracts • Belgium: 400 MW generators, 261 MW interruptible load

  37. Who can solve the problem: TSO? Tertiary Control: interruptible load

  38. Who can solve the problem: TSO? Selective load shedding • After exhausting all other possibilities • Elia will out role its selective load shedding plan: • Reduces the energy demand of a limited number of consumers • Amount of time necessary • Legislation determines which types of consumer are susceptible to outages in the first instance and which must have power

  39. Who can solve the problem: TSO? • Which type of consumer? • Economic value of Businesses <> Citizens • Which Area? • Rural <> Dense populated areas • Economic value of provinces Antwerp, Brussels <> Limburg

  40. Who can solve the problem: TSO? Economic value of businesses and households (2001) Value per district (mlj €)

  41. Who can solve the problem: TSO? Also overgeneration may cause problems Incompressibility of production: wind and solar Lack of flexibility Critical moments 2012

  42. Who can solve the problem: TSO? DLR Offshore Grid Proposal by Statnett (Source Statnett, 2008) Vision of High Voltage Super Grid (Source: Dowling and Hurley, 2004) Offshore Grid examined in the Greenpeace study (Source: Woyte et al, 2008) Czisch

  43. Who can solve the problem: TSO? BUT difficulties in transmission investments • Transmission grid remains a monopoly • Regulated business • It is all about getting a fair long-term return on investment • EU does not support merchant projects • How to convince private investors or nationalized ? • Virtual moratorium on overhead lines • It takes ages to get permissions-Everyone hates them • NIMBY syndrome • Not In My Back Yard • NIMTO syndrome • Not In My Term of Office • Even worse – people go BANANAs • Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything • Final result – CAVE people • Citizens Against Virtually Everything

  44. Who can solve the problem: consumers? • Generation-side • Energy efficiency • Nuclear • CCS • Renewables Required paradigm shift on the demand-side • Demand-side • Energy efficiency & Intelligent consumption • Residential • Smart appliances • Intelligent heating/cooling • insulation • Transportation • Electric vehicles

  45. Who can solve the problem: consumers? • Smart meters Consumers respond to price signals Consumers contribute to system balance Investments in back-up generators

  46. Who can solve the problem: Smart grids? Why SmartGrids? Interoperable European Electricity Networks Networks renewal Liberalised markets User-centric Stakeholder ownership Environmental policy Distributed and central generation Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting - Bremen, Germany Demand response

  47. Who can solve the problem: Smart grids? From passive grids towards active grids • Passive grids = Fit and Forget • Fault detection: bidirectional flows • Power Quality: responsibility? • Voltage control: responsibility? • Grid Planning: deterministic peak planning, cfr ER P2/5 in UK  Significant grid problems at low levels of decentralized generation • Active grids • Normal operation • Curtailment of generation • Reactive power control • Coordinated voltage control by On-Load Tap Changing transformers • Voltage regulators in-line • Fault situations Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting - Bremen, Germany

  48. Who can solve the problem: VPP? Cell concept (Denmark) Hierarchical structure in the power system in which each cell coordinates local balance (market for DG), clears fault situations and communicates with other cells in energy trading Virtual Power Plants (VPP) Flexible representation of load & generation, acting as 1 entity towards DSO/TSO Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting - Bremen, Germany (Source: www.fenix-project.org) (Source: Risö)

  49. Who can solve the problem: VPP? • Virtual Power Plant: • Dispersed generation • Dispersed Storage • Controllable loads • Not necessarily by physically connecting plants but by interlinking them via soft technologies (ICT) • VPP as key delivery mechanism to provide access of DER • to energy market (commercial aggregation) • to ancillary and network management services markets (grid aggregation) • The goal is to manage DER to provide as much services as a conventional generators Aggregated to work as a conventional power plant

  50. Who can solve the problem: VPP? • Advanced IT is the core element of a virtual power plant!

More Related