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WCRP polar climate predictability initiative. Vladimir Ryabinin www.wcrp-climate.org. A notable gap was that between scientific communities, as most people knew only a small minority of the other participants.

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wcrp polar climate predictability initiative

WCRP polar climate predictability initiative

Vladimir Ryabinin

www.wcrp-climate.org

slide2

A notable gap was that between scientific communities, as most people knew only a small minority of the other participants.

…it seems apparent that progress in polar predictability will require crossing disciplinary boundaries to understand the feedbacks between the troposphere and the stratosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice

  • Bergen workshop (October 2010): science-driven
    • Informal WCRP Report
slide3

(SST)

(Douville, 2009)

slide4

Predictability: seasonal

(J. Cohen, 2011)

Seasonal Forecast from AER(Atmospheric & Environmental Research)

Role of snow cover

slide5

Snow Forced Signal

J. Cohen, 20…

slide10

Role of Sea Ice

Y. Orsolini

slide11

Predictability: inter-annual

Correlation between wintertime Arctic sea ice area and SATs

Annual mean Arctic sea ice area anomalies and oceanic volume flux (upper 125 m)through Spitzbergen-Norway meridional (about 20E) cross-section

r = - 0.77

Cyclonic circulation

(Bengtsson, 2004)

Westerly winds

Barents Sea

Barents inflow

slide12

Predictability: decadal

(Boer & Lambert)

(Ed Hawkins)

Decadal: forced change + natural variability

slide14

Climate Predictions and Projections

Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment 5 – CMIP5 IPCC AR5

Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP

sea ice,stratosphere

seasonal

decades,

centuries

Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX IPCC AR5

Arctic

Africa

Chemistry-Climate ModelValidation

chemistry,

ozone

Antarctic

regional

slide15

The nature of feedbacks appears to be different in the two hemispheres leading to different “big questions”:

    • Understanding and predicting the rate of Arctic sea ice loss
    • Understanding the drivers of change in the Antarctic, including connections to ozone, ocean circulation, carbon uptake, and ice shelves
  • Imperatives
    • Improve models
    • Identify measurement needs, both for initialization and for monitoring variability and long-term changes
slide16

IASC Atmosphere meeting in Denver (October 23, 2011)

    • IASC-A sees itself as more “bottom up”, e.g. field experiments, and sees the WCRP initiative as being very complementary (link through Jim Overland, NOAA PMEL)
  • Toronto workshop (April 2-4, 2012)
    • Aim for around 30-35 people, representing science topics and partner activities (some continuity with Bergen)
    • Outcome will be a draft implementation plan to be considered at the JSC meeting in July 2012
slide17

Expected implementation mechanisms

    • Targeted workshops
    • Climate process teams
    • Coordinated evaluation/assessment of data sets
      • Observational data sets
      • Reanalyses
      • Seasonal predictions (CHFP)
      • Historical simulations (CMIP)
      • Decadal and longer timescale predictions (CMIP)
    • OSSEs to define measurement needs
    • Coordinated model experiments
wcrp grand challenges
WCRP Grand Challenges
  • Provision of skillful future climate information on regional scales (includes decadal and polar predictability)
  • Regional Sea-Level Rise
  • Cryosphere response to climate change (including ice sheets, water resources, permafrost and carbon)
  • Improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation and their contributions to climate sensitivity
  • Past and future changes in water availability (with connections to water security and hydrological cycle)
  • Science underpinning the prediction and attribution of extreme events
slide19

WCRP polar climate predictability initiative & WWRP Polar Prediction Research Project: commons

  • Models, a lot of similarities
  • Observations, almost enough for NWP, not the case for climate
  • Data assimilation: melt ponds, land surface, stratosphere, more for climate
  • Goal: seamless multi-scale prediction system
  • Different readiness to address prediction needs in NH and SH
  • Polar regions are only the focus of targeted improvements within our projects but the overall progress in prediction will be achieved by global systems -> need a reliable and welcoming entry of our results into global systems – roles of WWRP & WCRP
  • Same communities? How big is the overlap?
  • Welcome to Toronto…

Thank you!