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THORPEX: Advancing Weather Forecast Accuracy

THORPEX is a world weather research program aimed at improving the accuracy of high-impact weather forecasts. This program utilizes advanced forecasting methods and targeted observations to enhance predictability in various societal benefit areas such as health, weather, agriculture, and energy. THORPEX also collaborates with other organizations to develop unified global weather and climate prediction systems.

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THORPEX: Advancing Weather Forecast Accuracy

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  1. Personal David Burridge Ex Director ECMWF Ex Director IPO (twice) Ex ......... NED Met Office

  2. GEOSS • Science Plan peer-reviewed; • Implementation Plan 2004-2015 approved; • Approved annual expenditure $1.2M through a trust fund; • First Symposium (Montreal,2004) • Regional Committees - RAII,IV,VI • Southern Hemisphere alliance

  3. To Mitigate Natural disasters

  4. The Team ”Chuchu” Feng Nathalie Tournier and David Burridge Elena Manaenkova Jim Caughey Tetsuo Nakazawa David Parsons

  5. And $1,200,094 per annum or (better still) $1,824,795 per annum! in reality ……

  6. In 2008, the organisational structure was revised With scientific oversight being provided by the WWRP JSC

  7. My take on the major successes of the programme GIFS-TIGGE – TIGGE data base and TIGGE services; GEOWOW DAOS – analysis of the data from field experiments, reviews of the GOS and a authoritative assessment of the results of targeting PDP – Field experiments, science community building GEOSS – took us to places I didn’t expect to go, great source of support and funding YOTC – essentially the outcome of the Trieste (date) meeting Regional plans

  8. Global Interactive Forecast System using the THORPEX INTERACTIVE GLOBAL GRAND ENSEMBLE (TIGGE) End-to-end forecast system“tuned” for end users, using targeted observations called on in ‘sensitive areas’, adaptive data assimilation, grid computing and distributed archives accessible through a single entry point.

  9. THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] Extra observations and targeted observations to improve track prediction U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] PROBEX TH08 WMO WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Monsoon Typhoon Landfall SoWMex Japan Palau Patrick Harr Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA USA paharr@nps.edu

  10. Targeting Motivation: Track Uncertainty 10 September ECMWF Strike Probability JMA Ensemble Members Numerical model aids

  11. THORPEX and GEOSS • Contribute to GEOSS societal benefit areas, for example • HEALTH - use advanced weather forecasting methods to improve predictability of major health hazards in W. Africa • WEATHER - further develop TIGGE and societal applications • AGRICULTURE - help improve the predictability of food supplies in Africa • ENERGY - demonstration project utilizing the TIGGE databases to improve energy management techniques (particularly those linked to hydro-power)

  12. And THORPEX and WCRP • JSC/WCRP member of ICSC and science groups • THORPEX in WCRP/COPES • Joint project initiated to develop a unified ultra-high-resolution global weather and climate prediction system • Collaboration in TIGGE • TIGGE and Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) • Similar technical issues (data, archiving, policy) • Potential for “seamless” days-seasons prediction systems • Links established between THORPEX and TFSP

  13. THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection andthe Madden Julian Oscillation

  14. THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection andthe Madden Julian Oscillation Hosted by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) 13-17 March 2006, Trieste, Italy Meeting Report prepared by Julia Slingo, Franco Molteni, Mitch Moncrieff and Mel Shapiro

  15. Regional Plans

  16. 2nd THORPEX International Science Symposium Symposia 4-8 December 2006, Landshut, Bavaria, Germany THORPEX: A World Weather Research Programme "Accelerating improvements in the accuracy of one day to two week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment" Venue at the bank of river Isar

  17. BBC weather pages Monday 10 November Published at 10:00 Monthly Outlook Summary Umbrellas at the ready - Our hats and scarfs were out as the UK …… Monday 10 November—Sunday 16 November More rain on the cards - Get your brollies at the ready as the UK is set for an unsettled week …. The positive side to unsettled spells is that frosty conditions will be few and far between Monday 17 November—Sunday 23 November Low pressure still dominates - Our old friend low pressure looks set to remain situated somewhere to the south-west of the UK …… Monday 24 November—Sunday 7 December Don't put the umbrellas away just yet - As autumns moves along for another year and winter begins to arrive, mild and unsettled weather looks set to cling to the UK… Monthly forecasting The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK. Next update at 10:00, Monday 17 November

  18. Legacy Projects The High Impact Weather Project A WWRP research activity

  19. Thank you for a wonderful 10-year programme Good luck to WWRP and the follow-on to THORPEX

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