Futures for Europeans in the Knowledge Economy

1. Futures for Europeans in the Knowledge Economy Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project American Council for the United Nations University www.stateofthefuture.org

2. Just 25 years ago, there was no… • Internet, World Wide Web, PCs, or mobile phones • European Union, WTO, ICC, or NATO in Eastern Europe • Talk of globalization, genetically modified food, stem cells • AIDS • Asymmetrical warfare, and • … and most believed that a nuclear WW IIIwould have destroyed the world by now

3. What about the next 15 years • IQ becomes the competitive advantage in the global knowledge economy (personalized food, genetic engineering, computer enhanced learning) • India and China are the axes of the global economy and produce far more millionaires than you are willing to believe today • Life Extension begins to look like a realistic option while the aging population increases economic concerns • Genetic engineering and AI creates new life forms that achieve awareness and can evolve • A global brain emerges from Internet evolving later into Conscious-Technology

4. Conscious-Technology (Post-Information Age) When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached thePost-Information Age HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT 2030 2015 2000 1985

5. Simplification of History and an Alternative Future

6. Whither Europe? • Expanding tourist Mecca living off its past • with increasing unemployment • aging society with crushing medical costs • with imported labor maintaining the status quo? • Or can its aging population create its own employment via web-based businesses from teaching to tour guides? • Or will it rise to the occasion and reinvent itself? • The answer could be found in how it is responding to the 15 Global Challenges facing humanity today

7. Millennium Project Global Challenges Identification & Assessment 1996-97 15 Issues with 131 Actions 182 Developments 1999-2005 • Global Challenges • General description • Regional views • Actions • Indicators 15 Challenges with 213 Actions 1998-99 & Distilled Into 1997-98 15 Opportunities with 213 Actions 180 Developments 2000-2005 State of the Future Index (SOFI) National SOFIs for American Countries

8. Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

9. 2050 expect 3 billion more people; Economic growth accelerates; About 5-7 billion of the 9 billion will be urban; Serious urban systems ecology, nanotech, and new electric production and distributions system seem vital European knowledge of green technologies, policies, and ethics should be marketed to the world. 1. Sustainable Development for All

10. Water tables falling on all continents 40% of humanity on international watersheds 70% water for agriculture New knowledge needed for filters and membranes for large-scale water treatment agricultural efficiencies Drought-and salt-tolerant plants Desalinization Household sanitation Water storage massive tree planting 2. Sufficient clean water without conflict

11. Poverty-Environmental Migration to Europe increases By 2100 Europe’s population could be half of that of 2000. (362 million down from 728 million) Old Age Percent doubles 2050 (30% up from 15%) Knowledge economy jobs for older people should a HUGH industry for Europe. 3. Population growth and resources be brought into balance

12. Proportion of population over 65 by region, 2000 and 2050 (projected) Source: US Bureau of the Census 2000, quoted in UNFPA State of the World Population 2004

13. Source: UN World Population 2300

14. European knowledge from colonial times to address failed states or sections within states? The increasing ability to manipulate information and information warfare threatens the future of democracy 4. Genuine democracy… emerging from authoritarian regimes

15. Private Sector Competitive Intelligence Government Organizations Information Warfare Non-governmental Organizations Advanced Marketing Techniques Transnational Organized Crime Terrorist Organizations (Political, Ethnic, or Religious)

16. Knowledge economy requires the ability to monitor and anticipate future global change This sensitivity and ability can be automated into software EuroSOFI - European State of the Future Index 5. Policymaking more sensitive to global long-term perspectives

17. Futures Intelligence System Press Releases Newsletters Journals Monitor Specific Websites Key Word Internet Searching Conferences Seminars Key Persons Tracking SCANNING Analysis & Synthesis Individual Staff Management Weblog-Database Feedback & New Requirements Decisions Future Oriented Understanding and learning for organization Management

18. The Global State of the Future Index (SOFI)

19. Internet is the self-organizing mechanism for the global brain and the emerging nervous system for conscious-technology by both design and self-organization China: 1 in cell phones, 2 in Internet users; gap is closing Knowledge economy Tele-education, Tele-nations Tele-government, Tele-volunteers, Tele-medicine, Tele-everything (if it isn’t tele - it will be tele-terminated) Meme epidemics (cultural implications)(seek markets not jobs) 6. Global IT working for everyone

20. Top 5% bottom 5% ratio 6-1 in 1980; now over 200-1 Internet is re-distributing the means of production Elderly Europeans create self-employment – Memes needed to change from employment model to self-employment 7.Ethical market economies reducing the rich-poor gap

21. Europe a leader in Pharmaceuticals – a growth industry. World’s fast growth AIDS in Eastern Europe Gene sequencing leading to specific new drugs is very fast today (SARS), but urban concentrations, travel, and terrorism it may still require an alternative approach – rapid, short-term boost of the immune system. 8. The threat of new and reemerging diseases, and immune micro-organisms reduced

22. Democratization and interactive media increase the number of people involved in decisionmaking, and the acceleration of change increases uncertainty, which reduces our capacity to decide and set priorities. Decision support software to identify and improve the improvement system, training in decisionmaking, cognitive science, prioritization, synergies, self-organization, knowledge visualization, mapping, and automated decisionmaking. TransInstitutions – part government, corporation, NGO, international organization, and university – for each of these 15 Global Challenges or any challenge 9. Capacity to decide improved

23. Future Businesses may become involved with TransInstitutions • receives its funds from at least three of the following categories but not a majority from anyone: governments, for-profit corporations, non-profit organizations, UN or other international organizations, foundations, and/or individuals • the persons who compose its board of directors and associated employees and consultants must come form all of these institutional categories but not a majority of anyone • the products, services, and/or other outputs must be purchased or received by all of these categories, but not by a majority of anyone.  This could be an extension of non-profit or profit corporate law of a government.

24. UN Universities Organizations Governments Corporations NGOs Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution

25. African crime rate in Paris, Islamists threats in Holland, Pakistani immigrants in England, stateless Gypsies, and organized crime throughout Europe. Future ICT, marketing, competitive intelligence, infor-warfare, info-terrorism, and organized crime may be inter-linking – How will people know what to trust?Knowledge Economy Pollution SIMAD (Single Individuals Massively Destructive) Linkage of Education, health, and security systems 10. Ethnic conflicts, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction

26. Internet, knowledge economy increases women’s access to cash/political economy, which increase general welfare, especially of children Yet, male attacks on women 15-44 cause more death and disability than wars; Amnesty International estimates that 33% of women worldwide have been attacked by partners Media, Memes power to change male culture 11. Changing status of women helping to improve the human condition

27. About €2,000,000,000,000.00 (€2 trillion) Next? Governments’ decisions bought and sold like drugs; Elderly on Internet exploited. Could Europe initiate a new a new global system? Implement Palermo Treaty with a new mechanism that upgrades check transfer software, prioritizes collaborative enforcement, and deputizes courts 12. Transnational organized crime

28. Global Electricity demand will double, and maybe triple in the next 50 years; advances in nanotech and biotech will greatly improve efficiencies, but more is needed. A world energy organization to pool talent and money from business, government, and universities for high risk, high payoff R&D for large-scale systems such as Carbon Sequestration and Solar Power Satellites 13. Growing energy demand met safely and efficiently

29. 1500 Surprise Geothermal Solar 1000 Biomass Exajoules Wind Nuclear 500 Hydro Gas Oil &NGL Coal Trad. Bio. 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth Scenario Carbon sequestration

30. S&T progresses too fast to regulate, yet its potential dangers are too big not to regulate on a global scale International Science & Technology Organization could begin as an information system 14. S&T Breakthroughs acceleratedto improve the human condition

31. Global ethics are emerging via ISOs, UN Treaties, the Olympics, NGOs, and the media To be a counter weight to the US and China/India, Europe could lead the global ethics discussions: What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people? Do we have the right to alter our genetic germ line so that future generations cannot inherit the potential for genetically related diseases or disabilities? Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into new species? 15. Global Ethics and Global Decisions

32. The Millennium Project WWW.STATEOFTHEFUTURE.ORG Jglenn@igc.org