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High Resolution Assimilation of Radar Data for Thunderstorm Forecasting on OSCER . Keith A. Brewster, Kevin W. Thomas, Jerry Brotzge, Yunheng Wang, Dan Weber and Ming Xue CAPS and School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma 2007 OSCER Supercomputing Symposium Norman, Oklahoma, October, 2007.

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High resolution assimilation of radar data for thunderstorm forecasting on oscer

High Resolution Assimilation of Radar Data for Thunderstorm Forecasting on OSCER

Keith A. Brewster, Kevin W. Thomas, Jerry Brotzge, Yunheng Wang, Dan Weber and Ming Xue

CAPS and School of MeteorologyUniversity of Oklahoma

2007 OSCER Supercomputing Symposium

Norman, Oklahoma, October, 2007


Casa nexrad radars
CASA & NEXRAD Radars Forecasting on OSCER

  • CASA NetRadNSF ERC: Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of Atmosphere

    • X-Band Dual-Polarization Radars

    • 30 km nominal range

    • Dual-Pol attenuation correction

    • Clutter filter

    • Collaborative, Adaptive Scanning

    • Fill-in below coverage of NEXRAD

    • Toward phased-array panels – low-cost!

  • NEXRAD

    • S-Band Radars

    • Current Weather Service Operational Radars

    • 14 covering domain

    • Data used out to 230 km


Casa netrad ip1
CASA NetRad IP1 Forecasting on OSCER

Southwest Oklahoma


Casa netrad kfdr nexrad
CASA NetRad KFDR NEXRAD Forecasting on OSCER


Near real time nwp runs
Near Real-Time NWP Runs Forecasting on OSCER

  • Four Runs in Near Real-time

  • 9 Weeks in Spring 2007

  • 6-hour 1-km resolution forecasts

  • Use Reflectivity

  • ARPS Model

  • ADAS Analysis with cloud analysis and latent heat adjustment

  • Run on Parallel Linux Boxes OU OSCER (150 proc/2 runs at a time)

  • Hourly output graphics posted to web: http://www.caps.ou.edu/wx/casa


Forecast domain
Forecast Domain Forecasting on OSCER

Dx = 1 km

nx=603

ny=543

nz=53


Assimilation strategy
Assimilation Strategy Forecasting on OSCER

40-min Assimilation

5.5-hour Forecast

IAU

IAU

IAU

IAU

2150

2200

2210

2220

2230

00

01

02

03

04

Forecast Model started manually when storms enter the network

or with initial development within the network


Computing networking
Computing - Networking Forecasting on OSCER

CASA SOCC

CASA Radars

NFS

IDD (Internet)

CAPS Ingest Cluster

OSCERTop DawgHPC

IDD (Internet)

NexRad Radars

Other WeatherObservations

Internet

CAPS Webserver

DataFile Archive

Other NumericalWeather Model Data


Computing number crunching
Computing – Number Crunching Forecasting on OSCER

TopDawgTotal 1024 processorsPentium4 Xeon EM64T 3.2 GHzGigE Network (976 Mbps, latency 9 ms)

ARPS Analysis/Forecast150 processors per job (75 nodes)4 forecasts, 2 jobs run at a timeHorizontal Domain Decomposition, MPICH2 15x10 processors6 - 6.5 h wall for each forecast1 - 1.5 h wall for data processing and analysis~50 GB of data each day created for archive


Summary of 2007 cases
Summary of 2007 Cases Forecasting on OSCER

  • 21 Sets of Runs for 20 Cases

  • Weather Summary:

    • With Funnels and/or Tornadoes (2)

    • Squall Lines (8)

    • Clusters of Cells or Individual Cells (6)

    • Broken Lines and/or Cells on Boundaries (5)

    • Precip Area with Synoptic Scale Low (1)

  • Some developing, some intensifying, decaying

  • Wide Range of Time-of-Day


Sample impact of casa netrad data
Sample Impact of CASA NetRad Data Forecasting on OSCER

ADAS Analysis of

Hydrometeors

Converted to Reflect

Hgt=~250 m AGL

NEXRAD Only

NetRad & NEXRAD


Cross section
Cross-Section Forecasting on OSCER

NEXRAD & NetRad

NEXRAD Only

NetRad Low-Level Info


01 z may 09 forecast animation
01 Z May 09 Forecast Animation Forecasting on OSCER


40 min end of assimilation period
40 min - End of Assimilation Period Forecasting on OSCER

ReflectivityAll Radars

Refl + VrAll Radars

KTLX (Verif)


40 min end of assimilation period1
40 min - End of Assimilation Period Forecasting on OSCER

ReflectivityAll Radars

Refl + VrAll Radars

KTLX (Verif)

Stronger Vort

Improved Refl


2 hour forecast
2-hour Forecast Forecasting on OSCER

KTLX (Verif)

Refl + VrAll Radars

ReflectivityAll Radars


2 hour forecast1
2-hour Forecast Forecasting on OSCER

KTLX (Verif)

Refl + VrAll Radars

ReflectivityAll Radars

Stronger, Closer


Vorticity during assimilation
Vorticity During Assimilation Forecasting on OSCER


2 3 hr vorticity forecasts
2-3 hr Vorticity Forecasts Forecasting on OSCER


2 3 hr vorticity forecasts1
2-3 hr Vorticity Forecasts Forecasting on OSCER

Triangles:

ObservedCirculations

No Radar Data


2 3 hr vorticity forecasts2
2-3 hr Vorticity Forecasts Forecasting on OSCER

Solid Green:

NetRad Only

Orange:

NexRad Only

Red:

Reflectivity Both


2 3 hr vorticity forecasts3
2-3 hr Vorticity Forecasts Forecasting on OSCER

Radial Velocity

Data Used fromAll Radars

Four Circulations

Tracked in this run


Accomplishments
Accomplishments Forecasting on OSCER

  • Completed MPI of ADAS with cloud analysis

  • Able to process CASA radar

    • Automated Data Selection

    • Data I/O and Quality Control (ref & vel)

    • Remapping and hydrometeor assignment

    • Reflectivities are well-handled in model

  • Baseline Runs Complete


Ongoing future work
Ongoing/Future Work Forecasting on OSCER

  • Complete MPI of Vr analysis and run simulations with Vr

  • Detailed verification of model forecasts

    • Comparison of QPF to NSSL 1-km Q2

    • Comparison of location and strength of forecast circulation centers vs. radar-observed circulation centers (April 10, May 8/9)

  • Prepare for 2008 Experiment

    • Complete MPI of 3DVAR and comparison of results

    • Integrate NWP in end-user training

    • Design near real-time evaluation for integration in NWC Hazardous WeatherTestbed