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台灣產業與科技的未來發展趨勢

台灣產業與科技的未來發展趨勢. 楊日昌 工業技術研究院 September 27, 2003. Taiwan the Global Technology Player. in spite of its 0.9 percent world GDP share, Taiwan plays a disproportionately large role on the world information technology (IT) stage

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台灣產業與科技的未來發展趨勢

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  1. 台灣產業與科技的未來發展趨勢 楊日昌 工業技術研究院 September 27, 2003

  2. Taiwan the Global Technology Player • in spite of its 0.9 percent world GDP share, Taiwan plays a disproportionately large role on the world information technology (IT) stage • it is a leading player in the world in the shipment of notebook PC’s, networking devices, TFT LCD’s, optical disks and players, fabless IC’s, electronics packaging, etc, and its world ICT standings are still ascending

  3. Taiwan the Global Technology Player (2001) Networking Products IC NO.1 Foundry : US$ 6,070M (72.9%) Mask ROM : US$ 400M (56.7%) IC Packaging : US$ 2,285M (30.4%) NO.2 IC Design : US$ 3,616M (25.9%) NO.3 DRAM : US$ 1,896M (16.9%) Note: Excluding overseas production, source:ITIS (2002) NO.1 Ethernet Card : 35.8M Ports (66.0%) Hub : 41.9M Ports (74.8%) ADSL Modem : 5.1M Sets (59.6%) Wireless LAN : US$ 482M (29.5%) Analog Modem : 38.8M Sets (41.7%) NO.2 Ethernet Switch : 45.6M Ports (24.5%) Cable Modem : 3.3M Sets (39.9%) B:Billion M:Million K:Thousand M.T :Metric Ton ( ) : World Penetration Computer & Peripheral Devices NO.1 Notebook PC : US$ 11.6B (23.9%) LCD Monitor : US$ 2,308M (41.1%) CD-R Disk : 4.68B Pcs (83.3%) CD-RW Disk : 167.2M Pcs (70.3%) DVD Disk : 257M Pcs (74.5%) PC Camera : 8.7M Sets (58.0%) NO.2 Mother Board : US$ 2,640M (33.9%) Digital Camera : US$ 678M (9.0%) S&M Scale TN/STN LCD module : US$ 703M (16.0%) , etc. NO.3 Large Scale TFT-LCD Panel : US$ 2,524M (23.3%) Other NO.1 Hand Tools : Export US$ 1,196M (16.8%) ABS Resin : 982K M.T (22.4%) , etc. NO.2 Polyester filament : 1,525K M.T (14.0%) Nylon Fiber : 391K M.T (10.6%) , etc. NO.3 Bicycle : 4,750K Sets (4.0%) Polyester Staple : 830K M.T (10.4%) , etc. For technology players anywhere, a wide swathe of the road to the world’s IT production goes through Taiwan’s IT companies

  4. 100% 13.7% Taiwan 26.1% 34.7% 36.6% 80% 36.8% Korea 60% 40.5% 37.8% 40.6% 40% Japan 49.6% 33.5% 20% 27.5% 22.7% 0% 2000 2001 2002F 2003F LCD world market shares Change in Ranking among Top Five TFT-LCD Vendors: 2001: Samsung (20.2%), LG-Philips (16.7%), AU (10.1%), Hitachi (7.9%), and Sharp (7.2%) 2002: LG-Philips (19.4%), Samsung (17.6%), AU (11.6%), CMO &IDT (11.5%), and Chunghwa Picture Tube (6.6%) Source: ITRI/IEK (2002/11) Page 1-5

  5. *in planning 輔祥,瑞儀,先益,大億,元津,福華, 盛美,寰宇,中強光電,台灣奈普等二十餘家 LCD: Growing a Whole Industry Cluster 台灣凸版,展茂,劍度,和鑫,昌益,奇美,勝華,宏東洋 協臻,力特 日東電工 *汎納克 *住友化學 台灣康寧,中晶光電,鉅晶,發殷,碧悠,正達,台灣板保 聯電,茂矽,華邦,聯詠,致新科技 劍度,錸德,勝華,默克光電 大立 高分子 *台灣默克 Up-stream Materials Back-light modules Driving IC Glass substrate ITO Glass Align- ment Color filter Liquid crystal Polarizer Mid-stream Panels TN LCD STN LCD TFT LCD 華映,勝華,南亞,光聯,碧悠,國喬,凌巨,華生,高雄日立,台灣愛普生等 元太,華映,友達,統寶,奇美,瀚宇,廣輝 勝華,光聯,碧悠,美相 達威,久正,所羅門,夏普電子 泉毅,晶采,眾福,上靖 全台晶像..等十多家 Modules manufacturers Down-stream applications Image-telecast products Communication products Instrument products Consumer products Information products Portable TV VCD Player Projector Notebook, computer, LCD Monitor, Digital camera,PDA Industrial instruments Medical instruments Avionic instruments Home appliances Watch Calculator Mobile phone Car navigation system,Pager Screen phone NT$ one hundred million

  6. CD-ROM/DVD 1000X Units CD-ROM Worldwide Market Share ： (1% ) (9%) (12%) (~23%) (~38%) (~47%) (~60%) (~60%) (~60%) (~60%) (~60%) Source: OES/ITRI

  7. CD-R & -RW Global Production Taiwan’s Production Source: IEK/ITRI (Nov.,2000)

  8. Taiwan: the Technology Gateway to Greater China • in the year 2000, China has surpassed Taiwan as the third largest IT product export nation in the world, but … • close to two thirds (64 percent) of these exports were made by Taiwan companies’ factories in Mainland China …all other foreign companies (American, Japanese, Korean …) and Mainland Chinese firms combined to make up the remaining 36 percent • for the foreseeable future (5 to 10 years), Taiwan will be the technology and strategy center of high technology in the Greater China Region

  9. Taiwan’s Technology Aspirations • To be among World Frontrunners in: • information and electronics: semiconductor manufacturing, flat panel displays, systems on a chip (SOC) • optoelectronics: data storage, optical communications • wireless communications: wireless LAN, 3G CPE • precision manufacturing: MEMS • biotechnology: biochips, bioinformatics, Chinese herbal medicines • nanotechnology: nanoelectronics on silicon, advanced displays, nanophotonic devices, advanced data storage, micro fuel cells

  10. “Two-Trillions, Two-Stars” Vision • two trillions • IC (from NT$ 0.63 trillion to NT$ 1.59 trillion in 2006) • displays (from NT$ 0.25 trillion to NT$ 1.37 trillion in 2006) • two stars • digital content (from NT$ 0.13 trillion to NT$ 0.37 trillion in 2006) • biotechnology (from NT$ 0.10 trillion to NT$ 0.25 trillion in 2006) (exchange rate: $ 1 is approximately NT$ 35)

  11. Nanotechnology: Taiwan 2008 Industrialization Targets Products Differentiated by Nanotechnology • materials & chemicals: 43 % • metals & machinery: 22 % • information & communications: 35 % 奈 total: NT$660 billion ($ 19 billion)

  12. 工業技術研究院：Greater China’s Leading Technology Center • a 6,000-person R&D institution founded in 1973 to spearhead Taiwan’s build-up toward high technology • emphasis on R&D output and industrial impact; annually producing over 1,000 patents and licensing 500 technologies to industry • grew Taiwan’s semiconductor industry through a series of spin-offs, built Taiwan’s optoelectronics, displays and other technology-based industries through the transfer of technologies and human resources • one of the world’s most productive R&D institution in terms of industrial and commercial impact

  13. Major ITRI Spin-offs • (existing – ITRI spinoffs) • VIS:ITRI spin-off, 1994 • 1st 8” Wafer Fab in Taiwan (US$ 241M, 2002) • TMC: ITRI spin-off, 1988 • 1st Mask Fab in Taiwan • (US$ 83M, 2002) Major Impact • TSMC: ITRI spin-off, 1987 • 1st 6” Wafer Fab in Taiwan • (US$ 4,666M, 2002) • UMC: ITRI spin-off, 1979 • 1st 4” Wafer Fab in Taiwan • (US$ 1,954M, 2002) • CMOS technology transferred from RCA in 1976 Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source : IEK ITIS Project (Apr.,2002)

  14. ITRI Semiconductor Program and the Advent of Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry Millions of Units 1000 256 K 1.2μ 1M 1.0μ 4M 0.6μ 16M 0.5μ 64 K 1.5μ 800 600 64 M 0.35μ 400 200 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ERSO Technology Delivery: Sub-u Project Output 5μ 3.5μ 2μ 1.5μ 1.2μ 1.0μ 0.7μ 0.5μ 0.35μ DRAM: 4M 256K 16M 4M 64M 16M FAST SRAM: Source: Dataquest, ERSO/ITRI

  15. Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Today Year 2001 Source: IEK/ITRI IT IS Project (Mar.2002)

  16. ITRI and the Taiwan Optical Disk Industry Unit: billion NT dollars Licensees(10+): 鴻景.嘉祥,... Total revenues of Taiwan’s optical storage industry 210 HD-DVD: key component development Developing key components Establishing DVD verification lab 150 Establishing advanced storage consortium Licensees(10): 長谷,... Licensees(9): 錸德.中環,... DVD disk drive: system integration & key component development Licensees(8): Establishing DVD Club 建碁.建興,... 90 CD-R/RW disk: technology development Admitted to the Steering Committee of DVD Forum CD-ROM: system integration 30 Cumulative venture capital investment (to 2000): $126 billion NT dollars 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 In 1993 Taiwan has no optical disk drive production, by 2001 its output of 50 million units accounts for 56% of the world market share.

  17. + - Solid capacitor Communication devices Construction maintenance Li-ion battery Processing Coating & Refurbishment Color filter Design Advanced Materials Biomedical materials Optical storage media Underground pipeline protection Formulation Micro-sensor Cu alloy design Metal injection molding Organic packaging material Dissemination of Material Technologies Technology Transfer to Industries Companies：498 Industrial Services Cases：16,011 Precision die coating technology Enhancing Investment on Emerging Industries Companies：156 Investment：US$934M Training Programs Attendants：33,251

  18. Extensive Industry Ties: Notable ITRI “Graduates”

  19. Notable ITRI “Graduates” in the Displays Industry

  20. ITRI “Star” Nanotechnologies • nanoelectronics on silicon • nanomaterial technologies for silicon-based IC fabrication from 90, 65 nanometers on down • non-volatile memories, high mobility devices, Organic TFT  • next generation displays • large, high resolution, flat panel TVs at below CRT costs • flexible displays with roll-to-roll fabrication  • nanophotonic devices • quantum dot lasers and light sources • photonic crystal devices reducing the size and cost of optical communications systems by 2 orders of magnitude  • high-density data storage • optical and magnetic storage and read/write technologies to increase storage density to 25, 100 and 1,000 gigabyte (terabyte)   • micro fuel cells • high specific energy, thin, flat, room-temperature micro fuel cells to replace batteries for mobile 3C products – 12 hours for notebook computers, 50 days for cell phones, etc.

  21. Traditional Industry Applications Traditional Industries Nanomaterial Application Features Added Through Nanotechnology Innovative Product Thermal insulation, anti UV, anti bacteria, high fade-resistant materials Nano powder, surface improvement, dispersion technology Plastics Industry High strength, anti bacteria, abrasion resisting, electric conducting, low gas permeation, environmentally friendly packing materials Man Made Fiber Industry Nano-function formulation technology Coating Industry Abrasion resist, anti bacterial/UV, high temperature stable, flame retarding, nano color paste/ink, high thermal conducting material Nano porous structure technology Construction Industry Nano Interface processing technology Self-cleaning, thermal insulating, anti-fog Food preservation bag, high quality printing paper, high-stiffness film Paper Production Industry Self-assembly process technology High strength steel aluminum alloy, abrasion-resisting surface treatment Nanocrystal lattice control technology Metal Industry Chemical Industry Nano catalysts, sensor, high thermal conducting materials, glass coating

  22. 運動器材  中國砂輪 (高爾夫球桿桿頭、奈米級鑽石鍍膜) 我國產業界投入奈米科技的現況 藍色斜體字 為與工研院合作或技轉者 (920325更新) 奈米材料  百康奈米科技(奈米黏土)  尚志造漆(30nm奈米顏料，TiO2光觸媒)  新美光(奈米級顏料)  永光 (不反光玻璃)  東元奈米應材(奈米碳管)  F公司(奈米粉體)  BM公司(奈米粉體)  YHS公司(雷射製備奈米粉粒,1000g/hr)  CT2公司(TiO2, Ag離子)  FTI公司、HK公司、NA公司、 NB公司、CL公司、NT公司 (奈米黏土複合材料) 大東樹脂(奈米SAN/黏土複合材料)  茂康 (奈米橡膠複合材料)  LH公司(導熱橡膠)  CT公司(紫外線吸收劑乳液)  長興公司(PDA表面處理劑)  長春 (奈米塑膠材料) 信通公司(奈米金屬觸媒)  TY公司(磁性流體) 飛元科技(多層陶瓷元件)  信昌公司 (介電瓷粉)  WB公司(自組裝奈米材料)  CHF公司，WM公司(澱粉奈米微粒 化技術) 硅石生技 (生物可分解包裝薄膜) 半導體產業  台積電( MRAM, FinFET)  NA公司( MRAM)  長興、永光、-、三聯科技 (化學機械研磨液) 平面顯示器／電腦產業  東元奈米應材、YD公司(CNT-FED)  錸寶、東元激光(OLED)  翰立光電 (PLED; CNT-LED, 戶外看板)  永記造漆 (LCD用顏料分散型彩色濾光片)  仁寶 (高抗污NB機殼) 印刷電路板產業  NA公司(Epoxy/Clay奈米複材)  KC公司(基板平坦化技術)  國泰高科技公司 (奈米軟式基板) 光電產業 尚志造漆、NA公司、TH公司、 FT2公司(噴墨印表機奈米顏料) 台鹽(有機感光鼓)  永信(高純度粒徑30奈米光導電 材料) 聯宥(無機可錄式光碟) 生技產業  東洋藥品 (微脂粒藥物)  九鼎 (奈米化中草藥)  統一公司 (高鈣、高鐵牛奶)  超基因科技公司 (超基因健康食品)  CY公司(生物晶片、微流體波動器)  五鼎 (奈米硒、奈米生物感測器)  全球奈米科技 (奈米金、奈米微量元素)  元紅科技 (刮砂板)  晶旺奈米科技 (奈米高能量生物產品)  亞洲基因 (DNA標識)  聖兒莉國際公司 (奈米科技保養品) 中華綠纖維科技(貼樂透、痘痘貼) 能源產業  高銀化學(鎳氫電池隔離膜、 鋰離子電池隔離膜)  TY公司(具儲能特性奈米材料)  HT公司(燃料電池奈米陽極觸媒) 紡織業  遠紡、中興、力麗、中華綠纖維科技(抗菌、防臭、防紫外線功能性纖維、 吸收遠紅外線纖維) 中石化(機能性尼龍奈米新合纖) 元台山(奈米口罩) 元紅科技(奈米韻律服、奈米泳裝、 棉被、襪子) 建材/家電產業  東陶、TOTO (抗菌地磚)  和成 (衛浴設備、馬桶、洗手檯)  台灣日光燈 (空氣清淨燈管)  大同、聲寶、三洋 (空氣清淨機)  華峰工業(石材表面處理)  東元電機 (奈米材料冰箱) 設備/檢測產業  LC公司(奈米微波電漿設備)  TC公司(奈米級檢測設備)  閎康科技公司 (分析檢測) *

  23. 21世紀：The Exponential Century • 人類文明的演化一直是exponential in nature（dy/dt ~ y） • 從遠古一直到大約200年前，time used to stand still … • but it is flying now … Change ` Time  * Linear Scale

  24. Random Access Memories 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 .1 .01 .001 .0001 .00001 .000001 Kilobytes Per Dollar Integrated Circuit/Chip Discrete Transistor Vacuum Tube 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Doubling time: 1945-1975 20 months 1975-2000 18months Source: Kurzweil, R., “The Singularity is Near”, www.kurzweilai.net

  25. 1,000,000 10,000 100 1 .01 .0001 .000001 Kilobytes Per Dollar Recording Desk Magnetic Drum 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1955 2000 2005 doubling time: 15 months EXPONENTIAL SCALE Magnetic Data Storage

  26. Mechanical Feature Sizes .000001 .00001 .0001 .001 .01 .1 1 Diameter (Millimeter) 1985 1971 1978 1982 1987 1993 1998 2004 EXPONENTIAL SCALE

  27. 1016 1014 1012 1010 108 106 104 102 100 Bites Per Second Fiber Optic Ethernet Digital T1 Sage Digital/PCM Morse Code 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Doubling time: 1940-1980 36 months 1980-2000 12 months EXPONENTIAL SCALE Bandwidth

  28. 1010 108 106 104 102 100 10-2 10-4 10-6 Calculations Per Second Per $1,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 ELECTROMECHANICAL RELAY VACUUM TUBE TRANSISTOR INTEGRATED CIRCUIT EXPONENTIAL SCALE MOORE’S LAW Computing

  29. 科技創新的趨勢：下面二十年 • 80年代 – PC的年代；90年代 – Internet的年代；00年代 – wireless的年代；mobility will be ubiquitous; displays will be ubiquitous  • Web services突破business process integration的障礙，e-business transition開始加速，seamless e-commerce終於來臨  • 奈米科技充斥在所有的製造業中，並且實現它許多個革命性的願景  • 「資源效率」的提升持續落後於「經濟生產力」的成長，「永續」的問題持續惡化  • 一台notebook PC在2020到2025年間達到一個人腦的計算能力，「人機結合」開始成為遠超過科技的重大「進化」議題

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