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Operational and diagnostic evaluations of ozone forecasts by the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS) Shaocai Yu $, Rohit Mathur + , Daiwen Kang $ , Kenneth Schere + , Brian Eder + , Jonathan Pleim + , Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division

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slide1
Operational and diagnostic evaluations of ozone forecasts by the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

Shaocai Yu$,Rohit Mathur+, Daiwen Kang$,Kenneth Schere+,

Brian Eder+,Jonathan Pleim+,

Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division

NERL, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC 27711.

$On assignment from Science and Technology Corporation

+ On assignment from Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA

slide3
CMAQ Community Multiscale Air QualityModel
  • Community Model
  • Multiscale
    • consistent model structures for interaction of urban through Continental scales
  • Multi-pollutant
    • ozone, speciated particulate matter, visibility, acid deposition
    • and air toxics
slide6
AIRMAP sites

NE Model domain and site locations

slide7
SO2 (CS)
  • Parrish et al., 1991:
  • Mobile source: CO, NOx
  • Point source (power plants): SO2, NOx
  • SO2/NOy<1:mobile source
  • SO2/NOy>1:point source

CO (CS)

SO2 (TF)

  • Sites were significantly influenced by polluted plume after 8/11:
    • mobile and point sources

CO (TF)

8/11

slide8
Results1. O3 episode (8/6-8/17/2002)

Modeled and observed (diamond) O3 (ppb)

~45 ppbv O3

~110 ppbv O3

(b) NMB=(model-obs)/obs

slide9
NMB (max 8-hr)

Model O3

Max 1hr

Max 8hr

AQS O3 (ppb)

slide10
Results3. Time-series eval.

O3

NO

Harvard Forest

NO2

PAN

CO

NOy

8/11

slide11
Results3. Time-series at AIRMAP sites
  • Hanna et al. (2001):
  • 50% uncertainty in JNO2
    • 40 ppbv (or 20%) uncertainty in max O3
  • Model reproduces
    • 64-77% of observed JNO2 within a factor of 1.5
  • Priority: more accurate determination of JNO2 in model
slide12
Results

3. O3 Lidar vertical profiles

Obs

  • Extremely tough test:
  • Temporal and 3-D field correctly
  • Model reproduced obs at low altitude and more uniform
  • Over predictions increase with altitude

Model

Ship Track

slide13
Results (diagnostic evaluation)
  • NOx-sensitive regimes: [O3]/[NOx], Photochemical age: [NOz]/[NOy],

O3 production efficiency: [NOz]/[O3]

  • NOx-sensitive regimes: [O3]/[NOx]
  • Arnold et al., 2003:
    • [O3]/[NOx]<14:VOC-sensitive
  • >46:NOx-sensitive
  • Both model and obs: three sites are mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%)
slide14
ResultsPhotochemical age: [NOz]/[NOy]
  • Arnold et al., 2003:
  • [NOz]/[NOy]>0.6:aged NOx plume

CS

  • For daytime (6 to 18 EST) hours:

TF

  • Model and Obs: accumulating O3
  • aging the NOx
  • in the similar way.

HF

slide15
Results

O3 production efficiency

  • : O3-NOz slope
  • Parrish et al., 1993 :
  • O3-NOz slope:
    • upper limit of
  • :
  • Obs: 8.3 to 10.0
  • Model: 4.2 to 5.1

CS

TF

  • At rural sites in E US (Olszyna et al., 1994):
  • : 5 to 10

NOz

O3

HF

NOz

contacts
Contacts:

Brian K. Eder

email: [email protected]

www.arl.noaa.gov/

www.epa.gov/asmdnerl

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