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The Future of Networking: Trends, Challenges, and Innovations

This overview enhances understanding of networking's evolution and future directions. It examines how established infrastructure undergoes slow changes, the transformation of communication technologies, and the impact of cost-driven applications. Key themes include the phases of standardization in networking, the relevance of reliability as a quality of service (QoS), and the emergence of new applications that challenge current paradigms. The discussion also addresses scaling issues, security challenges, and the potential role of advanced technologies like quantum computing in shaping the network landscape.

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The Future of Networking: Trends, Challenges, and Innovations

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  1. Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements Henning Schulzrinne Columbia University hgs@cs.columbia.edu Future of Networking

  2. Overview • Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly • Hypothesis: • all major communications modes have been explored • replacement dedicated  IP largely complete • Networking lacks obvious drivers of other technologies: • energy costs, pollution  fuel cells • higher speed  jet engine • New applications not necessarily bandwidth-driven, but cost-driven • Reliability is the real QoS Future of Networking

  3. Networking is getting into middle years Future of Networking

  4. Standardization • Really two facets of standardization: • public, interoperable description of protocol, but possibly many (Tanenbaum) • reduction to 1-3 common technologies • LAN: Arcnet, tokenring, ATM, FDDI, DQDB, …  Ethernet • WAN: IP, X.25, OSI  IP • Have reached phase 2 in most cases, with RPC (SOAP) and presentation layer (XML) most recent 'conversions' Future of Networking

  5. Technologies at ~30 years • Other technologies at similar maturity level: • air planes: 1903 – 1938 (Stratoliner) • cars: 1876 – 1908 (Model T) • analog telephones: 1876 – 1915 (transcontinental telephone) • railroad: 1800s -- ? Future of Networking

  6. Observations on progress • 1960s: military  professional  consumer • now, often reversed • Oscillate: convergence  divergence • continued convergence clearly at physical layer • niches larger  support separate networks • Communications technologies rarely disappear (as long as operational cost is low): • exceptions: • telex, telegram, semaphores  fax, email • X.25 + OSI, X.400  IP, SMTP • analog cell phones Future of Networking

  7. History of networking • History of networking = non-network applications migrate • postal & intracompany mail, fax  email, IM • broadcast: TV, radio • interactive voice/video communication  VoIP • information access  web, P2P • disk access  iSCSI, Fiberchannel-over-IP Future of Networking

  8. Network evolution • Only three modes, now thoroughly explored: • packet/cell-based • message-based (application data units) • session-based (circuits) • Replace specialized networks • left to do: embedded systems • need cost(CPU + network) < $10 • cars • industrial (manufacturing) control • commercial buildings (lighting, HVAC, security; now LONworks) • remote controls, light switches • keys replaced by biometrics Future of Networking

  9. New applications • New bandwidth-intensive applications • Reality-based networking • (security) cameras • Distributed games often require only low-bandwidth control information • current game traffic ~ VoIP • Computation vs. storage vs. communications • communications cost has decreased less rapidly than storage costs Future of Networking

  10. Commercial access cost (T1) Future of Networking

  11. Transit cost (OC-3, NY – London) Future of Networking

  12. Disk storage cost (IDE) Future of Networking

  13. Transition of networking • Maturity  cost dominates • can get any number of bits anywhere, but at considerable cost and complexity • casually usable bit density still very low • Specialized  commodity • OPEX (= people) dominates • installed and run by 'amateurs' • need low complexity, high reliability Future of Networking

  14. Security challenges • DOS, security attacks  permissions-based communications • only allow modest rates without asking • effectively, back to circuit-switched • Higher-level security services  more application-layer access via gateways, proxies, … • User identity • problem is not availability, but rather over-abundance Future of Networking

  15. Scaling • Scaling is only backbone problem • Depends on network evolution: • continuing addition of AS to flat space  deep trouble • additional hierarchy Future of Networking

  16. QoS • QoS is meaningless to users • care about service availability  reliability • as more and more value depends on network services, can't afford random downtimes Future of Networking

  17. Wildcards • Quantum computing • Teleportation Future of Networking

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