Low carbon human development economy wide modelling
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Low-carbon, human development economy-wide modelling. Marco Sanchez / Eduardo Zepeda UN-DESA. Successful and on-going capacity development projects LAC. Bolivia (UDAPE- Planning ) Remittances Food price volatility MDGs to 2015, 2020 and 2025 Costa Rica

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Low carbon human development economy wide modelling

Low-carbon, human development economy-wide modelling

Marco Sanchez / Eduardo Zepeda

UN-DESA


Successful and on going capacity development projects lac
Successful and on-going capacity development projects LAC

  • Bolivia (UDAPE-Planning)

    • Remittances

    • Foodpricevolatility

    • MDGsto 2015, 2020 and 2025

  • Costa Rica

    • MDG education (on time completion (Education)

    • Macro-economicimpact of governmentdebt in internationalmarkets and alternative use of resources (Finance & Parliament)

    • Impact of incometax rebates (University and Parliament)

  • Uganda

    • SupporttotheNationalDevelopment Plan (Planning)

    • Supportto MDG report (Finance and Planning, UNDP)

    • Supporttoassesstheimpact of thefall in foreignaid (Planning)


Low carbon human development or inclusion
Low-carbon & human development (or inclusion)

  • Global model estimates of additional energy investments needed to stabilize temperature range from negative to levels up to 8 % of GDP

    • Investments are larger in Africa and Asia

  • Own MDG estimates suggest that pursuing MDG achievement of 3 goals might cause annual losses in GDP of up to 2 % of GDP.

    • Estimates suggest the presence of important synergies


A comprehensive modeling framework
A comprehensive modeling framework

  • Policy making needs to be comprehensive

  • Take into account macro-economic impacts and fiscal space

  • Energy transformation (decarbonizing and low-carbon building)

  • Human development, as proxy by MDGs

  • Energy poverty

  • Trade-offs and synergies


Examples of simulations
Examples of simulations

  • Three oil-importing countries where team are working on economy-wide modelling

    Bolivia, Costa Rica and Uganda

  • Impose a tax on oil to generate a revenue equal to 2% of GDP

  • Revenue is used to finance infrastructure and education, which raises productivity

  • Tax on oil decreases


Raw example of possible simulations
Raw example of possible simulations

  • Tax on oil decreases GDP growth rate by up to 2 percentage points

  • The effect of investing added revenues varies across countries and the type of investment

  • Using the tax revenue tends to neutralize and even more than offset the negative effect of the oil tax


Impact on gdp growth of a tax oil and investment in education percentage points from baseline gdp
Impact on GDP growth of a tax oil and investment in education, percentage points from baseline GDP