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CFS Test and Assessment Team ( Moorthi and Schemm, chairs )

Performs sensitivity experiments of various components of CFS and evaluates the results. Experiments are proposed by the members of the team and ranked by the CTB Climate Science Team These activities are expected to accelerate the development of the next CFS upgrade.

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CFS Test and Assessment Team ( Moorthi and Schemm, chairs )

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  1. Performs sensitivity experiments of various components of CFS and evaluates the results. Experiments are proposed by the members of the team and ranked by the CTB Climate Science Team These activities are expected to accelerate the development of the next CFS upgrade. CFS Test and Assessment Team(Moorthi and Schemm, chairs)

  2. Status of FY2007 Experiments • Three CDEP funded external projects • Seventeen internal experiments approved by CST. 9 experiments under CFS experiment group 5 experiments under CFS assessment group 2 experiments under LDAS group 1 experiment under ODASgroup

  3. Status of CFSTA experiments

  4. Two experiments completed by CFS experiment group 1. Subseasonal hindcasts at different resolutions (T126, T254 and T382) (A. Vintzileos and H. Pan) Preliminary analysis shows that there is positive impact even to long term mean precipitation in all monsoon areas by increasing horizontal resolution. Additional analyses to address the forecast skill at monthly and sub-monthly time scales and downscaling issues are being investigated. 2. T382 CFS runs for hurricane seasons (C. Thiaw, H. Pan and S. Saha) The results are currently being analyzed.

  5. Two experiments complete by CFS Assessment group 1. NLDAS run with the vegetation map error correction (H. van den Dool and Y. Fan) Simulated soil moisture anomalies and annual cycles are Improved in top two model layers (0-10cm, 10-40cm), but phases of the dry end of annual cycles are about 1~2 month late. Not much change in deeper layer soil moisture, slight changes in evaporation and runoff in parts of US. 2. Corrected GODAS-CFS reruns for 1981-89.(Y. Xue, W. Wang) • To investigate the impact of GODAS corrections on atmospheric circulation and subsurface ocean temperature. Two test cases with December and June initial conditions finished. • Preliminary assessment indicates that warm SST bias reduced, but cold bias worsen. There is general improvement in the prediction of SST indeces. Further analysis is in progress.

  6. Development of neural network emulations of model physics components for improving the computational performance of the NCEP seasonal climate forecastsP.I.s: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, V. Krasnopolsky, Co-I.s: S. Lord, Y.-T. Hou, Collaborator: A. Belochitski, CTB contact: H.-L. Pan • 1st year – Initial Developments: • Development of the NN methodology for emulating model radiation • Development of experimentation and validation framework • Initial development (with a limited training data set) of NN emulations for the long wave radiation parameterization and validation of its accuracy • All three above tasks have been completed during the report period • Due to the major upgrades of the NCEP CFS model and the NCEP supercomputer system occurred during the report period, finalizing the LWR NN emulation and performing initial seasonal climate predictions with NN emulations of CFS radiation will be done in Year-2.

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