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Chemical Weapons

Chemical Weapons. How are they “unconventional?”. I. History of CW: See Readings. Note the process of “agent escalation” – tear gas  chlorine  phosgene  mustard  lewisite, etc. Note also the efforts to control CW Finally, compare military effects of CW to conventional explosives.

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Chemical Weapons

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  1. Chemical Weapons How are they “unconventional?”

  2. I. History of CW: See Readings • Note the process of “agent escalation” – tear gas  chlorine  phosgene  mustard  lewisite, etc. • Note also the efforts to control CW • Finally, compare military effects of CW to conventional explosives

  3. II. Effects of CW • Distinction between protected / unprotected targets: CW seldom kills protected troops. • Specific Agents Have Different Effects

  4. 1. “Poison Gas:” Blood Gases and Pulmonary Agents • Casualties: High within small areas • Uses on the battlefield: Quickly dispersed by wind and diluted by air • Recent uses: Used for executions in enclosed areas, used by Iraqi insurgents

  5. d. Sources of Condemnation • Use for executions and mass murder (Holocaust) • Secondary effect on medical personnel during surgery (release of toxic gases) • Agent Escalation and Mass casualties in WW I

  6. 2. Vesicants • Casualties: • Mustard: Few in short-term but many over long period. High proportion of wounded to killed. • Lewisite: Many casualties quickly – death can occur within minutes. • Uses on the battlefield: Mass casualties to overload medical systems, force use of bulky CW equipment, secondary area contamination • Recent uses: Most common agents used in modern wars (Yemen, Iran-Iraq)

  7. d. Sources of Condemnation • Invisibility of threat – Soldiers can acquire lethal doses without realizing it, then die painfully days later • Nature of injuries – Blistering and burns. Example (Iranian casualty from Iraqi mustard attack):

  8. 3. Nerve Agents • Casualties: Very high within area of exposure. Decline with distance and time • Uses on the battlefield: Mass fatalities, Area contamination, force use of bulky CW equipment • Recent uses: Iraqi use against Kurds, Aum Shinrikyo • Sources of condemnation: Invisibility, pre-existing norms against CW

  9. 4. Incapacitants (CS, BZ, Fentanyl) • Casualties: Designed to temporarily disable without killing. Overdoses can be lethal. • Uses on the Battlefield: Flush enemies from bunkers, disable command/control, avoiding civilian deaths in riots and hostage rescue situations • Recent Uses: US in Vietnam, Iraq against Iran and Kurds, Waco and Moscow theater sieges • Sources of condemnation: Agent escalation in WW I and subsequent conflicts

  10. III. The Law of CW Use (Proliferation will come later…) • Declaration of St. Petersburg (1868) – Renounces use of small (< 400 g) “fulminating or inflammable” projectiles in war (explosive bullets) between signatories • Hague Convention (1899) – Renounces use of projectiles that diffuse asphyxiating or deleterious gases (Germany claims chlorine cylinder attack doesn’t violate – later claims Mustard isn’t a gas)

  11. C. Geneva Protocol (1925) • Prohibited the use of "asphyxiating gas, or any other kind of gas, liquids, substances or similar materials“ • Only applied to interstate wars (states reserved the right to use CW against their own people or colonies) • Many nations reserve right to retaliate against violators • Ambiguous use of “other” is interpreted to allow nonlethal CW

  12. D. The Chemical Weapons Convention • Outlaws all use of CW agents except: • “1. Industrial, agricultural, research, medical, pharmaceutical or other peaceful purposes; • 2. Protective purposes, namely those purposes directly related to protection against toxic chemicals and to protection against chemical weapons; • 3. Military purposes not connected with the use of chemical weapons and not dependent on the use of the toxic properties of chemicals as a method of warfare; • 4. Law enforcement including domestic riot control purposes.” • Note that riot control agents are now prohibited in warfare • Also note that toxic chemicals are OK if their other properties (flammability, explosiveness, etc) are the key to their military effectiveness

  13. E. Which countries can legally use CW? • Not bound by Geneva Protocol or CWC: • Bahamas (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Comoros (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Congo (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Myanmar (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Somalia • Bound by Geneva Protocol but not CWC: • Central African Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Dominican Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Guinea-Bissau (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Israel (signed CWC but has not ratified) • Angola • Barbados • North Korea • Egypt • Iraq (bound by UN cease-fire agreement of 1991) • Lebanon • Syrian Arab Republic

  14. III. Are CW WMD? • Problem: Accurate modeling difficult. Examples: 1. Single release may generate multiple plumes

  15. 2. Buildings affect dispersion

  16. B. DHS Scenarios • Mustard/Lewisite released by aircraft over stadium of 100,000 people • 150 fatalities; 70,000 hospitalized • Sarin injected into three large office buildings using six injectors • 6,000 fatalities (95% of building occupants); 350 injuries

  17. C. Rough Estimation • Model plume as if no terrain exists. Plume is teardrop-shaped (if wind > 10 km/hr) or circular (if little wind) from point of release • Plume is more elongated as wind increases, but also less concentrated • Divide plume into zones • Assign each zone a lethality level (% killed) based on likely dose • Estimate # of people in each zone and apply lethality levels to determine deaths

  18. Sample Lethality Table

  19. D. Persistence: Difficult to estimate economic damages or area-denial importance • Since attacks have little effect on protected targets, real intent is often to degrade efficiency through contamination (requires bulky protective gear)

  20. E. Chemicals compared to bioweapons and nuclear weapons

  21. F. Example: Attack on NYC(King’s County Census Tracts) Map = Approx. 7 miles across 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Wind 15 MPH

  22. Attack Parameters • Nerve Gas (Sarin) sprayed at ground level from trucks over 2-block area • About 2000 Gallons used

  23. Point of attack 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Wind 15 MPH

  24. Plume by Time 3 minutes 6 minutes 12 minutes 0 1 2 3 4 5 Wind 15 MPH

  25. Plume by Time 3 minutes 6 minutes 12 minutes 0 1 2 3 4 5 Wind 15 MPH

  26. Next Step: Figure out how many are in each plume area • Zooming in on affected area….

  27. Next Step: Figure out how many are in each plume area • Averaging Population per Census Tract Average People 845 2363 3717 5649 10934

  28. Next Step: Figure out how many are in each plume area • Count Census Tracts in each zone AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m 845 1 0 5 2363 2 7 13 3717 0 4 4 5649 0 .75 1.5 10934 .67 0 1

  29. How many were exposed? • Simple model assumes no protection – as if everyone was standing outside AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m 845 1 0 5 2363 2 7 13 3717 0 4 4 5649 0 .75 1.5 10934 .67 0 1

  30. How many were exposed? • Multiply number of tracts by average tract population….. AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m 845 845 0 4225 2363 5726 16541 30719 3717 0 14868 14868 5649 0 4237 8474 10934 7326 0 10934

  31. How many were exposed? • Multiply number of tracts by average tract population….. AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m 845 845 0 4225 2363 5726 16541 30719 3717 0 14868 14868 5649 0 4237 8474 10934 7326 0 10934 TOTALS 13897 35646 69220

  32. Compare to average lethality for each zone • Problem: requires data on aerosol dispersion given wind speed and quantities used. Pre-calculated tables best. • Sample data for Sarin: • 3 min zone = 30% dead • 3-6 min zone = 15% dead • 6-12 min zone = 5% dead

  33. Adding up deaths

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