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Working Group 2: Integrated systems of MetM and CTM/ADM: strategy, interfaces and module unification.

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slide1

Working Group 2: Integrated systems of MetM and CTM/ADM: strategy, interfaces and module unification

The overall aim of WG2 is to identify the requirements for the unification of MetM and CTM/ADM modules and to propose recommendations for a European strategy for integrated mesoscale modelling capability.

wg2 activities
WG2 activities:
  • Overview of existing integrated (off-line and on-line) systems in Europe and outside Europe.
  • Identification of the advantages and disadvantages of strategies for integrating of MetMs and CTM/ADMs.
  • Development ofguidance and strategy for on-line coupling of MetMs and CTM/ADMs and for their off-line interfacing.
  • Overview of existing module structures of MetMs and CTM/ADMs, along with recommendations and requirements for module unification.
  • Formulation of requirements of mesoscale MetMs suitable as input to air pollution models and improved meteorological pre-processors and model interfaces, including deposition processes, capable of connecting mesoscale MetM results to CTM/ADMs.
  • Recommended methods for the model down-scaling and nesting, as well as assimilation techniques.
  • Identifying requirements (including observation data needs) for an integrated mesoscale modelling capability/strategy for Europe.
slide3

WG2 Deliverables:

  • Overview of existing integrated (off-line and on-line) mesoscale systems.
  • Overview of existing module structures of MetMs and CTM/ADMs, recommendations and requirements for module unification.
  • Requirements of meso-scale MetMs suitable as input to CTM/ADMs, assessment of meteorological pre-processors and model interfaces between MetMs and CTM/ADMs.
  • Recommended methods for the model down-scaling and nesting, as well as assimilation techniques.
  • Requirements for an integrated mesoscale modelling capability/strategy for Europe, including data needs.
wg2 partners according to eocs aug 2005
WG2 partners (according to EoCs, Aug 2005)
  • Barbara Fay, DWD – deputy leader of WG2
  • Cecilia Soriano, TUC, Spain
  • Heinke Schlunzen, MIHU, Germany
  • Jacek Kaminski, York University for Environment Canada
  • Jonna Struzewska, WUK, Poland
  • Karel Kozel and Zbynek Janour, Czech Republic
  • Kostadin Ganev, GI, Bulgaria
  • Mikhail Sofiev, FMI, Finland
  • Millan Millan, CEAM, Spain
  • Ranjeet Sokhi, UH, UK
  • Valentin Foltescu, SMHI, Sweden
  • Vincent-Henri Peuch, MeteoFrance
  • Sandro Finardi, Arianet, Italy (expert)
  • Alexander Baklanov, DMI, Denmark
new members signed for wg2 without eocs
New members signed for WG2 (without EoCs)
  • Nikolas Moussiopoulos
  • Eaterina Bartchvarova
  • John Bartzis
  • Sven-Erik Gryning
  • Ulrike Pechininger
  • Aarne Mannik
  • Peter Clark
  • Koen de Ridder
important to involve
Important to involve:
  • EU NWP communities:

- HIRLAM (A. Baklanov, V. Foltescu, A. Mannik, M. Sofiev),

- COSMO (B. Fay, MeteoSwiss),

- ALADIN/AROME (V.H. Peuch)

- UM (P. Clark)

  • ECMWF (will be soon)
  • MM5/WRF/RAMS (integrated with CTMs) users/developers (US: G. Grell?, EU: R. Sokhi, M. Millan, S. Finardi)
  • GEM Environment Canada (J. Kaminski)
  • To link with existing EC and other projects (GEMS, ACCENT, COSMOS, PRISM, ENSEMBLES, …)
  • EnviroGroup of EUMetNet, EEA, Chemical Weather Forecast COST proposal (Sylvain Joffre) – to link
  • Experience from 5FP projects: FUMAPEX, PHOENICS, …
wg2 tasks
WG2 Tasks:
  • Off-line models and interfaces
  • Model down-scaling/nesting, incl. data assimilation
  • On-line coupled modelling systems, incl. feedback mechanisms
  • Models unification and harmonization

Task leaders ????

slide8

Participation in WG2 Tasks:

  • Barbara Fay, DWD – 1, 2
  • Cecilia Soriano, TUC, Spain - 1, 3
  • Heinke Schlunzen, MIHU, Germany ?
  • Jacek Kaminski, YU, Canada 3
  • Jonna Struzewska, WUT, Poland 2, 3
  • Karel Kozel and Zbynek Janour, CzechR 3?
  • Kostadin Ganev, GI, Bulgaria 1, 3?
  • Mikhail Sofiev, FMI, Finland 1, 2
  • Millan Millan, CEAM, Spain 1, 2, 4
  • Ranjeet Sokhi, UH, UK 1, 2, 4
  • Valentin Foltescu, SMHI, Sweden 1, 2
  • Vincent-Henri Peuch, MeteoFrance 2
  • Sandro Finardi, Arianet, Italy (expert) 1,2
  • Alexander Baklanov, DMI, Denmark 1, 2, 3, 4
  • Nikolas Moussiopoulos 1, 2, 3
  • Ekaterina Bachvarova ?later+othe
  • John Bartzis ?
  • Sven-Erik Gryning 2
  • Ulrike Pechinger 1
  • Aarne Mannik 1
  • Peter Clark 3, 4
  • Koen de Ridder 1, 2
  • J. Keller, A. Clappier 1,2

WG2 Tasks:

  • Off-line models and interfaces
  • Model down-scaling/ nesting, incl. data assimilation
  • On-line coupled modelling systems, incl. feedback mechanisms
  • Models unification and harmonization
wg2 plan for the first year a very optimistic version
WG2 plan for the first year (a very optimistic version)
  • Status report from WG2 members: models, systems, approaches (model database and EoCs)
  • WG2 expertise and potential contributions (EoCs)
  • WG2 web-site presentation
  • WP2 strategy and working plan
  • First draft overview of the current status
  • Links to other WGs and projects
inputs to the activity
Inputs to the Activity:

Inputs to the activity will include data and information on

  • CTM and Met models, used and developed in different countries,
  • their experience of model integration, as well as
  • existing module interface structures.

As to data requirements, it would include

  • meteorological data,
  • chemical pollutant data as well as
  • emission inventories for selected pollutants (such as NOx, VOCs and PM10).
definitions of integrated coupled models
Definitions of integrated/coupled models

Definitions of off-line models:

  • separate CTMs driven by meteorological input data from meteo-preprocessors, measurements or diagnostic models,
  • separate CTMs driven by analysed or forecasted meteodata from NWP archives or datasets,
  • separate CTMs reading output-files from operational NWP models or specific MetMs with a limited periods of time (e.g. 1, 3, 6 hours).

Definitions of on-line models:

  • on-line access models, when meteodata are available at each time-step (it could be via a model interface as well),
  • on-line integration of CTM into MetM, when feedbacks are possible to consider. We will use this definition as the on-line coupled models.
models inventory wg2 needs
Models inventory, WG2 needs
  • Type of MetM and CTM integration (see definitions)
  • Interface between MetM and CTM
  • Data assimilation in MetM and CTM
  • Feedback mechanisms ??
  • Module structure ??
slide18

Contributions from Partners

Vincent-Henri Peuch, MeteoFrance

- Data assimilation, link to the GEMS project

slide19

FUMAPEX scheme of the improvements of meteorological forecasts (NWP) in urban areas and interfaces to urban air pollution (UAP) and population exposure (PE) models

slide20
Current regulatory (dash line) and suggested (solid and dash lines) ways for systems of forecasting of urban meteorology for UAQIFS
development of meteo processor and interface between urban scale nwp and uap models
Development of meteo-processor and interface between urban scale NWP and UAP models
  • Guidelines for and improvements of interfaces (Finardi et al., 2004)
  • Interface vs. pre-processors for modern UAQ models
  • BEP urbanization module as a post-processor (Clapier et al., 2004)
  • DMI new urban meteo-preprocessor (Baklanov and Zilitinkevich, 2004)
  • MH methods for urban areas (WG2 COST715)
extended fumapex scheme of the uaqifs including feedbacks
Extended FUMAPEX scheme of the UAQIFS including feedbacks

Improvements of meteorological forecasts (NWP) in urban areas, interfaces and integration with UAP and population exposure models following the off-line or on-line integration

slide25

COSMOS: Community Earth System Models

Differences from COST 728:

  • Climate time-scale processes,
  • General (global and regional) atmospheric circulation models,
  • Atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere integration
slide26

The European PRISM project

The PRISM project develops:

  • infrastructure for Earth System Modelling including 
  • the coupler OASIS, as well as
  • tools for configuration, monitoring and postprocessing.

PRISM also provides guidelines for good coding practices.

Detailed information can be found in the PRISM System Specifications Handbook.

[PRISM website: http://prism.enes.org/]

slide27

Structure of the Danish nuclear emergency modelling system

DMI-HIRLAM system

  • T version: 0.15°
  • S version: 0.05°
  • L version: 0.014°

DERMA model

  • 3-D trajectory model
  • Long-range dispersion
  • Deposition of radionuclides
  • Radioactive decay

ARGOS system

  • Radiological monitoring
  • Source term estimation
  • Local-Scale Model Chain
  • Health effects

ECMWF global model

slide28
Integrated (on-line coupled) modeling system structure for predicting climate change and atmospheric composition
data assimilation
Data Assimilation
  • Experience from NWP data assimilation => nested MMs
  • Specifics of the data assimilation for CTM/ADMs
  • Remote Sensing /Satellite data assimilation (e.g., surface characteristics)
  • Overview of existing and newest methods for data assimilation
  • Strategy and recommendations for further studies
  • Link to WG3, GEMS, CWF COST proposal
meteorological capability for source receptor problem risk assessments
Meteorological Capability for Source-Receptor problem & Risk Assessments
  • Long-term / probabilistic / ensemble simulations for risk/impact assessments
  • Source-term /position estimation /inverse modelling
  • Sensitivity /vulnerability /risk functions
  • Inverse problems /source-receptor problem
  • Adjoint equations
  • Illumination / smoothing of measurement function
backward and adjoint simulations
Backward and Adjoint Simulations
  • Sensitivity of Receptors or Source-term estimation.
  • Trajectory modelling to calculate backward/forward individual or multiyear trajectory data sets for sensitivity studies.
  • Cluster and Probability fields analysis of trajectory/ dispersion data sets by month, season, and year (Mahura and Baklanov, 2002).
  • Adjoint problem methodology- based on variational principles, combination of direct and inverse modeling, and sensitivity theory - for atmospheric pollution problemto calculate unknown source term based on monitoring data for local- and global scales (Penenko and Baklanov, 2001).
why we need to build the european integration strategy
Why we need to build the European integration strategy?

NWP models are not primarily developed for CTM/ADMs and there is no tradition for strong co-operation between the groups for meso/local-scale

the conventional concepts of meso- and urban-scale AQ forecasting need revision along the lines of integration of MetM and CTM

US example (The models 3, WRF-Chem)

A number of European models …

A universal modelling system (like ECMWF in EU or WRF-Chem in US) ???

an open integrated system with fixed architecture (module interface structure)

European mesoscale MetM/NWP communities:

  • ECMWF
  • HIRLAM
  • COSMO
  • ALADIN/AROME
  • UM

---------

  • WRF
  • MM5
  • RAMS

European CTM/ADMs:

  • a big number
  • problem oriented
  • not harmonised (??)
  • …..