Causes of Demographic Change

1. Causes of Demographic Change Immigration Birth Rates Dispersion

2.  En esta grafica se ve dos tendencias demograficas de importancia fundamental: --el numero de inmigrantes esta a nivels historicos --el crecimeiento ha occurida en una manera muy rapido�en 25 anos el numero de personas nacidas fuera de los EEUU ha casi quadruplicado En esta grafica se ve dos tendencias demograficas de importancia fundamental: --el numero de inmigrantes esta a nivels historicos --el crecimeiento ha occurida en una manera muy rapido�en 25 anos el numero de personas nacidas fuera de los EEUU ha casi quadruplicado

3. U.S. Birth Rate: 1940-2005

4. Percent of Women (15-44) with a Birth in the Past Year

5. Components of Growth

9. Effects of Demographic Change Change in the racial mix New political dynamics

10. How white? Total U.S.

11. How White?

12. How White?

13. How White? The Future

14. U.S. Population Ages 20 to 35 2005

15. Population Change: Ages 20-352000-2005

16. Population Change: Ages 20-352000-2005

17. Population Change: Ages 20-352000-2005

18. Population Change: Hispanics by Nativity Ages 20-35, 2000-2005

19. Population Change: Ages 20-35for the Native Born2000-2005

20. Hispanic Population by Generation 35.3 million, 14.2m first gen, 9.9m 2nd gen, 11.3m 3 plus gen. 35.3 million, 14.2m first gen, 9.9m 2nd gen, 11.3m 3 plus gen.

21. Second Generation Latinos are on the Rise Hispanic population growth is driven more by birth than by immigration 2000-2020, and the fastest growing segment of the population is the 2nd generation. Hispanic population growth is driven more by birth than by immigration 2000-2020, and the fastest growing segment of the population is the 2nd generation.

22. Educational Attainment by HispanicsAges 25 to 64

23. Primary Language by Latino Generations This slide and the two that follow show that there are important socio-economic differences among Hispanics by generation.This slide and the two that follow show that there are important socio-economic differences among Hispanics by generation.

24. People vs. Voters (2004) Hispanics = 14% of the population 6% of the voters 41,300,000 total Hispanics - 14,171,000 citizens under 18 yrs old - 11,041,000 non-citizen adults 16,088,000 eligible voters

25. Demography and Politics

26. Levels of Enfranchisement

27. Hispanic Topics Language and the News Media Internet Use Language and Attitudes

28. Hispanic Population by Generation 35.3 million, 14.2m first gen, 9.9m 2nd gen, 11.3m 3 plus gen. 35.3 million, 14.2m first gen, 9.9m 2nd gen, 11.3m 3 plus gen.

29. Primary Language by Generation

30. Language Preferences in News Media

31. Language Preferences: By Generation By generaton, immigs on the right --significant 2nd generation 43% switchers, large-now almost as large as 1st, soon to be larger, and represents an interesting growth potentialBy generaton, immigs on the right --significant 2nd generation 43% switchers, large-now almost as large as 1st, soon to be larger, and represents an interesting growth potential

32. Attitudes towards News Media Spanish Media Valued Ethnic Institution 78% �very important� to economic and political development of Hispanics Even Latinos who never see it esteem this role: 61% all English High ratings on coverage of Latinos English Media Concerns over stereotyping 44% contributes to a negative image Emphasis on undocumented and criminals Inadequate recognition of economic and political achievements Poor ratings on coverage of Latinos

33. The Latino Market for News: 3 Audiences ? All English: 31% of Latino adults 78% native born, 22% foreign born 31% high school graduates, 17% college graduates 25% less than $30,000 a year, 44% more than $50,000 a year ? All Spanish: 24% of Latino adults 4% native born, 96% foreign born 21% high school graduates, 2% college graduates 65% less than $30,000 a year, 2% more than $50,000 a year ? Both: 44% of Latino adults 31% native born, 69% foreign born 35% high school graduates, 9% college graduates 46% less than $30,000 a year, 17% more than $50,000 a year Higher ses for eng- is function of nativity splitHigher ses for eng- is function of nativity split

34. The Latino Market: Audience Shares National Network Television: Heavy usage by Spanish only Audience divided evenly in thirds Rated highly by Spanish audience for service to Latinos 47% vs. 21% by English audience Local Television: English 40%, Spanish 29%, Both 17% Except for radio-higher, usage patterns roughly similar, NB mirror gen popExcept for radio-higher, usage patterns roughly similar, NB mirror gen pop

35. The Latino Market: Audience Shares Newspapers: English Dominance English 62%, Spanish 21%, Both 17% A Los Angeles exception? Spanish 31% English audience gives higher ratings for overall quality and coverage of Latino topics Radio: Heavy Latino usage overall, by foreign born of Spanish broadcasts The Internet: Used for news by 44% of native born vs. 20% of foreign born English papers score well with FB 30% of eng audience is FB Indeed for FB population newspapers very competitive And competitive for better educ higher income FBEnglish papers score well with FB 30% of eng audience is FB Indeed for FB population newspapers very competitive And competitive for better educ higher income FB

36. The Ad Council 12/5/07 36 Latinos Lag Behind Whites in Internet Use For the most part, I�m going to focus on a very liberal definition of �online�: �do you use the internet or email at least occasionally�. So this should capture even the most casual of internet user. This slide shows relative overall internet use for the different groups. As you see, 71% of whites report using the internet, while only 60% of blacks, and 56% of latinos report doing so. So the overall differences in use are quite stark. In the remainder of this presentation, I�ll analyze just which factors are driving these differences, which latinos have good internet access, and who has limited access� NOTE: %in-house internet: 42% hispanics, 65% whites %broadband-at-home: 29% hispanics, 43% whitesFor the most part, I�m going to focus on a very liberal definition of �online�: �do you use the internet or email at least occasionally�. So this should capture even the most casual of internet user. This slide shows relative overall internet use for the different groups. As you see, 71% of whites report using the internet, while only 60% of blacks, and 56% of latinos report doing so. So the overall differences in use are quite stark. In the remainder of this presentation, I�ll analyze just which factors are driving these differences, which latinos have good internet access, and who has limited access� NOTE: %in-house internet: 42% hispanics, 65% whites %broadband-at-home: 29% hispanics, 43% whites

37. The Ad Council 12/5/07 37 Internet Use is Highest Among the Young As is the case with other populations, internet use among latinos is inversely related to age. That is, the older you are, the less likely you go online. Even tho the general patterns of usage across age are quite similar, you can see that the levels of internet use are dramatically lower for latinos� even young latinos 18-29 (who have relatively high usage) have usage rates that are lower than whites in their 50s, or blacks in their 40s. NOTE: age effect persists when controls for income or education are added. Age effect declines but persists when nativity, generation, language, yearsinus are controlled for.As is the case with other populations, internet use among latinos is inversely related to age. That is, the older you are, the less likely you go online. Even tho the general patterns of usage across age are quite similar, you can see that the levels of internet use are dramatically lower for latinos� even young latinos 18-29 (who have relatively high usage) have usage rates that are lower than whites in their 50s, or blacks in their 40s. NOTE: age effect persists when controls for income or education are added. Age effect declines but persists when nativity, generation, language, yearsinus are controlled for.

38. The Ad Council 12/5/07 38 For All Groups, Internet Use is Lower for the Poorly-Educated� Another important issue is education. As in the general population, among latinos, education is associated with more internet use. Especially, having a high school degree makes a huge difference; rates of internet use among high school grads are much higher than among high school dropouts. This is an extremely important factor in internet use. You can also see here that, for each educational level, rates of internet use do not vary a whole lot between hispanics, whites, and blacks. ORIENT: for instance, 31% of hispanic dropouts use the internet, as compared to 32% of white dropouts, and 25% of black dropouts. NOTE: effects persist if age, income, language, nativity, generation, country of origin, yrsinus controlled for. Another important issue is education. As in the general population, among latinos, education is associated with more internet use. Especially, having a high school degree makes a huge difference; rates of internet use among high school grads are much higher than among high school dropouts. This is an extremely important factor in internet use. You can also see here that, for each educational level, rates of internet use do not vary a whole lot between hispanics, whites, and blacks. ORIENT: for instance, 31% of hispanic dropouts use the internet, as compared to 32% of white dropouts, and 25% of black dropouts. NOTE: effects persist if age, income, language, nativity, generation, country of origin, yrsinus controlled for.

39. The Ad Council 12/5/07 39 But the Prevalence of Dropouts is Highest Among Latinos But you�ll see that there IS a lot of difference in the educational distribution of these groups. This slide shows the educational distribution for each race/ethnic group. 41% of latinos don�t have a high school degree, compared to 12% of whites, and 21% of blacks. So even tho the levels of internet use within educational category don�t vary by race, the fact that latinos are less likely to have even a high school degree pulls the overall level of internet use for latinos down substantially. But you�ll see that there IS a lot of difference in the educational distribution of these groups. This slide shows the educational distribution for each race/ethnic group. 41% of latinos don�t have a high school degree, compared to 12% of whites, and 21% of blacks. So even tho the levels of internet use within educational category don�t vary by race, the fact that latinos are less likely to have even a high school degree pulls the overall level of internet use for latinos down substantially.

40. The Ad Council 12/5/07 40 For All Groups, Internet Use is Lower for Persons with Low Income� The story with income is similar� As in the larger population, higher income people report more internet use� 39% of Hispanics making less than $30,000/year use the internet, as compared to 72% of those making 30-50K, and 88% of those making more than 50K. And again you can see that there aren�t any stark racial/ethnic diffrences; within each income level, the patterns of use are quite similar across groups�The story with income is similar� As in the larger population, higher income people report more internet use� 39% of Hispanics making less than $30,000/year use the internet, as compared to 72% of those making 30-50K, and 88% of those making more than 50K. And again you can see that there aren�t any stark racial/ethnic diffrences; within each income level, the patterns of use are quite similar across groups�

41. The Ad Council 12/5/07 41 But the Prevalence of Low-Income Persons is Greater for Latinos �BUT AGAIN, the prevalence of low-income latinos is quite high: Over 50% of latinos have incomes less than $30,000, as compared to 30% of non-hispanic whites. This difference in income distribution is what really drives the overall differences in internet use. NOTE: income effect persists controlling for: age, education, language, nativity, generation, country of origin, yrsinus�BUT AGAIN, the prevalence of low-income latinos is quite high: Over 50% of latinos have incomes less than $30,000, as compared to 30% of non-hispanic whites. This difference in income distribution is what really drives the overall differences in internet use. NOTE: income effect persists controlling for: age, education, language, nativity, generation, country of origin, yrsinus

42. The Ad Council 12/5/07 42 Foreign-Born Latinos Lag Behind the Native-Born in Internet Use In addition to the basic socio-demographic characteristics which apply to the general population, latinos can be characterized by a number of other important factors. One such factor is nativity. I define the �native-born� as those born in the 5o states. The foreign-born were born in another country, or in puerto rico. If you look first at the pie chart, you�ll see that the foreign-born comprise the majority of the latino adult population; our survey found that 61% of respondents were foreign-born, and 39% are native-born. The bar chart, here, shows the rate of internet use, for both native-born latinos, and foreign-born latinos. As a reference, the orange horizontal shows the overall usage rate for non-hispanic whites. You�ll see that native latinos have rates on-par with non-hispanic whites; over 70% are online. Conversely, rates for the foreign-born hover around 45%... So nativity is an important predictor of the likelihood of using the internet. NOTE: effect persists controlling for age, education, and income.In addition to the basic socio-demographic characteristics which apply to the general population, latinos can be characterized by a number of other important factors. One such factor is nativity. I define the �native-born� as those born in the 5o states. The foreign-born were born in another country, or in puerto rico. If you look first at the pie chart, you�ll see that the foreign-born comprise the majority of the latino adult population; our survey found that 61% of respondents were foreign-born, and 39% are native-born. The bar chart, here, shows the rate of internet use, for both native-born latinos, and foreign-born latinos. As a reference, the orange horizontal shows the overall usage rate for non-hispanic whites. You�ll see that native latinos have rates on-par with non-hispanic whites; over 70% are online. Conversely, rates for the foreign-born hover around 45%... So nativity is an important predictor of the likelihood of using the internet. NOTE: effect persists controlling for age, education, and income.

43. The Ad Council 12/5/07 43 Speaking English is Very Important for Internet Use As it turns out, english ability is an even more important issue. You can see in the pie chart, that about � of latino adults speak primarily spanish, while 30% are bilingual, and 23% speak english. Turning again to the bar charts, you can see how language is associated with internet use. Again, I include the orange horizontal as a reference for the usage rates among non-hispanic whites. What is very clear here, is that speaking english is associated with more than double the rates of internet use� Latinos who are able to speak english have usage rates comparable to non-hispanic whites, while only 1/3rd of people who speak only spanish report ever going online. NOTE: this is a very robust finding�it doesn�t go away if we control for age, education, income, or nativity.As it turns out, english ability is an even more important issue. You can see in the pie chart, that about � of latino adults speak primarily spanish, while 30% are bilingual, and 23% speak english. Turning again to the bar charts, you can see how language is associated with internet use. Again, I include the orange horizontal as a reference for the usage rates among non-hispanic whites. What is very clear here, is that speaking english is associated with more than double the rates of internet use� Latinos who are able to speak english have usage rates comparable to non-hispanic whites, while only 1/3rd of people who speak only spanish report ever going online. NOTE: this is a very robust finding�it doesn�t go away if we control for age, education, income, or nativity.

44. The Ad Council 12/5/07 44 Internet Use Varies by Country of Origin And finally, here I show rates of internet use for different ancestry groups. This includes both native-born and foreign-born persons, and you�ll see, there is quite a bit of variation�for instance, whereas 50% of central americans report going online, the number goes up to 70% among south americans. For the most part, these variations are driven by the differences in the other fators I�ve discussed. For instance, mexican-origin persons have, on average, low educational achievement and, because so many are recent immigrants, little english proficiency. These characteristics are reflected in their low rates of internet use. Conversely, puerto ricans tend to have high rates of english proficiency, which largely explain their higher rates of internet use. And finally, here I show rates of internet use for different ancestry groups. This includes both native-born and foreign-born persons, and you�ll see, there is quite a bit of variation�for instance, whereas 50% of central americans report going online, the number goes up to 70% among south americans. For the most part, these variations are driven by the differences in the other fators I�ve discussed. For instance, mexican-origin persons have, on average, low educational achievement and, because so many are recent immigrants, little english proficiency. These characteristics are reflected in their low rates of internet use. Conversely, puerto ricans tend to have high rates of english proficiency, which largely explain their higher rates of internet use.

45. The Ad Council 12/5/07 45 Whites are More Likely to Own Cell Phones, but Latinos are More Likely to Use Text Messaging As Lee highlighted, at this point, people are �connecting� in ways that go beyond just the internet. To give you a hint of how this is occuring in the latino community, here I show rates of both cell phone usage, and texting, among latinos, and non-hispanic whites. You�ll see that whites have higher rates of cell phone ownership, BUT, latinos use text messaging at a higher rate�almost 30% report that they use text messaging. So even though latinos are lagging in internet usage, they seem to be gaining access quite rapidly using other media� As Lee highlighted, at this point, people are �connecting� in ways that go beyond just the internet. To give you a hint of how this is occuring in the latino community, here I show rates of both cell phone usage, and texting, among latinos, and non-hispanic whites. You�ll see that whites have higher rates of cell phone ownership, BUT, latinos use text messaging at a higher rate�almost 30% report that they use text messaging. So even though latinos are lagging in internet usage, they seem to be gaining access quite rapidly using other media�

46. Better for children to live with parents until marriage

47. In general it�s better for husbands to have the final word

48. It does no good to plan for the future because you can�t control fate

49. In American workplaces�You should be willing to work long hours, sacrificing your personal life