1. Pacific NorthwestResource Adequacy Assessment Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010

2. Outline • Minimum Adequacy Standard Thresholds • Implementation Plan • Current Assessment • Current Actions • Comparison to Last Assessment

3. Minimum Adequacy Thresholds • Energy – Annual Load/Resource Balance* • Physical = 0 MWa • Economic = ??? • Capacity – Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin* • Physical Winter = 23% • Physical Summer = 24% • Economic = ??? *As defined in the Adequacy Standard

4. Implementation Plan • Green Status • Proceed with normal planning activities • Compare results with other regional reports • Yellow Alert • Regional report • Forum review of data and assumptions • Red Alert • Regional conference • Regional review of data and assumptions • Identify inadequate utilities

5. Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ> Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ>Phys 5 Years Out < Phys

6. Annual Energy Load/Resource Balance

7. January Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin

8. July Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin

9. Assessing the Adequacy Status(Year when threshold is violated) • Energy 2027 • January Capacity 2030 • July Capacity 2015

10. Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ> Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ>Phys 5 Years Out < Phys July Capacity Violation 5 Years Out = Yellow Alert

11. Current Actions • RPS legislation is pushing wind development • Utilities are actively pursuing new resource acquisition • Power plan resources maintain July capacity adequacy through 2029 (on average) • Forum will review data and methodology

12. 2010 vs. 2008 AssessmentAnnualEnergy

13. Annual Energy Assumptions5-Years Out

14. 2010 vs. 2008 AssessmentJanuaryCapacity

15. January Sustained-Peak Assumptions5-Years Out

16. 2010 vs. 2008 AssessmentJulyCapacity

17. July Sustained-Peak Assumptions5-Years Out