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Future availability of wood for energy and other purposes in Europe: methods, results, policies

Future availability of wood for energy and other purposes in Europe: methods, results, policies. Kit Prins. Outline. What is “availability”? Where does wood come from and go to? Trends and targets What consequences for policies?. Acknowledgements. UNECE/FAO Euwood EFORWOOD

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Future availability of wood for energy and other purposes in Europe: methods, results, policies

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  1. Future availability of wood for energy and other purposes in Europe: methods, results, policies Kit Prins

  2. Outline • What is “availability”? • Where does wood come from and go to? • Trends and targets • What consequences for policies?

  3. Acknowledgements • UNECE/FAO • Euwood • EFORWOOD • BEE & CEUBIOM An encouraging trend towards cooperation between projects!

  4. What is “availability”? • Total physical stock • Annual production • Technically possible • Economically viable • Ecologically responsible • Socially realistic • Sustainable

  5. Measurement tools (supply and use) • Stemwood • Forest inventory, remote sensing, removals statistics • Biomass resource • Remote sensing, expansion factors etc. • Industry residues • Technical factors, surveys • Recovered wood • Surveys • Fuelwood use • Surveys of energy use

  6. For example, MCPFE minus Russia, around 2005 (million m3 wood)

  7. Remarks about “availability” • Need for precision of terms • Different measurement/estimation techniques for each availability • Much better knowledge on the physical side than the economic/social side • For policy what matters is the “bottom line”

  8. Sources and uses of wood • Method: “Wood resource balance” (Mantau et al.) • All sources, including estimates of non-recorded flows • Estimates wood energy use through e.g. domestic energy surveys • Includes use of residues and recycled wood, by (intentional) double counting

  9. European (EU/EFTA) wood resource balance, 2005, million m3

  10. Remarks on the wood resource balance • Material and energy uses of wood split 59/41 • Recorded wood removals from forests account for only 56% of supply • Industry residues are 25% of supply, recovered wood 5% • The “difference” (~5%) may be unrecorded supply, errors in conversion factors etc.

  11. Outlook for forest products (consensus view!) • Steady growth expected for consumption and production: • Sawnwood: 1/2 to 1% p.a. • Panels: 1 to 2% p.a. • Paper: 1 to 2% p.a. • Production of industrial roundwood to grow at ~1% p.a. (=> 270-300 million m3 in 2020) • No problem of sustainability at this level

  12. Targets for renewable energy • To meet the target of 20% renewables by 2020, • assuming wood maintains present share of renewables (~75%), • 740 million m3 of wood would be needed • Compared to 345 million m3 of wood energy in 2005

  13. The challenge for 2020 • Supply raw material for competitive forest industries, and • meet renewable energy targets, while • remaining fully sustainable, without • increasing dependency on other regions

  14. Meeting the challenge • Analysis not finished, but it will certainly be difficult to meet the challenge • But the main lines of the approach which could be adopted seem clear

  15. Main lines to meet the challenge • Conserve energy • Develop other renewables than wood • Use wood more efficiently • Mobilise more wood from existing forest • Expand forest (fibre producing area) • Develop recovered wood • Know the resource better

  16. Estimating “realistic potential” • Involves addressing all sources, and the socio-economic factors influencing supply • EUwood project will be completed in June 2010 • An earlier, very rough, estimate was made by Hetsch for UNECE/FAO in 2008

  17. Estimated potential wood supply in Europe (Hetsch 2008)

  18. Elements of wood mobilisation(see forthcoming Good Practice Guidance) • Land tenure (forest owner cooperation) • Infrastructure and logistics (roads) • Markets (organisation, transparency) • Improved recovery channels • Education, training, skills • Improved financing mechanisms • Legal and fiscal measures • Silvicultural measures

  19. Some key issues • Future energy price determines feasibility of wood mobilisation • What management intensity is acceptable to society? • How much land is available? • Should Europe import (more) renewable energies?

  20. Conclusions • The challenge of wood supply for energy is serious • There is scope for mobilising more wood in Europe, but this will require political will and long term determination • More should be known about the resource (forest, industry, post consumer)and above all, how its managers decide

  21. Kit Prins Kit.prins@gmail.com +41 78 739 1491 Thank you for your attention

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