Ireland's Climate Change Challenge: Transport and Agriculture

1. NUIG Climate Congress 2016Tue 5 April, Galway James Nix, Director of Green Budget Europe www.green-budget.eu director@green-budget.eu

2. The headline news Ireland 2nd worst in Europe for climate change emissions with a 10% overshoot expected by 2020 Ireland in context: Ireland is 10% off target when it comes to meeting its 2020 commitment, second only to Luxembourg (which is projected to miss its 2020 commitment by 21%, but Luxembourg says updated figures will show this number to be radically lower, meaning Ireland could be in the reckoning for worst in Europe)

3. Ireland is set to fail its 2020 climate target by 10%...Q: where is Ireland falling down? Answer: transport & agriculture The EU Commissions says that: • Ireland is “not on track” mainly due to “an anticipated increase of 19% in transport emissions between 2013 and 2020 and a 2% increase during the same period from agriculture”, • “Issues related to the availability of public transport in Dublin and increasing congestion further complicate the achievement of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets”, and • “In transport, the proportion of renewable energy was 5.2 % in 2014, only about half the 2020 target”. Source: Country Report for Ireland, Feb 2016 (issued under the European Semester)

4. And agriculture? Agriculture “is particularly relevant as it is the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland (32 % of the total), in sharp contrast to the EU average (12 % of the total)” The Commission notes the passage of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015...

5. Can the Climate Change law of Dec 2015 help? “Ministers”, the Commission notes: • “will have up to 18 months and 24 months from enactment to submit ... key plans to government”. • “In addition, the Act does not set a deadline for government to approve the plans in their original or modified form”. • The Act “also does not set overall emission reduction targets by certain dates or lay down the expected contributions of key sectors” • Sectors’ contributions are “to be fully established in the national and sectoral plans” Conclusion: the framework of the Act can help – but effort-sharing remains undecided, as does the pace of reform

6. So the Act brings us right back to the key challenges in transport & agriculture... • Let’s discuss transport first; then agriculture • … and let’s do so seeking holistic solutions

7. Air pollution breaches: Ireland is not meeting the NEC Directive (partly due to NOx from diesel cars); vital to adopt holistic solutions Post Dieselgate adjustment needed which will up non-compliance by IE; see EPA Source: EPA

8. Diesel cars made up 73% of new Irish car sales in 2014 Source: the European Carmakers’ Association, ACEA

9. Solutions • Electric buses: London already has more hybrid electric buses (1,200) that the entire Dublin Bus fleet (1,000) and has also recently deployed full electric buses • Full electric coaches are now also available • Car-sharing programmes using electric cars Finance: the transition to more sustainable transport can be funded by closing Ireland’s 10c gap between diesel & petrol tax, phasing it out over 2 to 3 years

10. Another NEC breach: Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs); mainly due to agri (manure volume attributable to cattle no.’s)

11. Contrast agriculture & energy... • While progress is halting at times, an energy transition is underway • The data suggests we also need a food transition

12. Agriculture accounts for more than 30% of Ireland’s climate change emissions Source: EEA and Eurostat

13. Less than 1% and falling: percentage of Irish farms which are organic Ireland is 25th out of 28 Member States Source: Eurostat 2015

14. Ireland is 26th of 28 based on land area farmed organically as a percentage of total area in use for agriculture Source: Eurostat 2016

15. Beef, dairy & not so much diversity: 92% of organic land is under grass, with a low level of crops / tillage / fruit & veg Source: Eurostat

16. Source: Eurostat Number of organic processors by sub-sector, 2014

17. Farm income went backwards in Ireland, 2000 to 2010 100% = 2005 average Source: Eurostat

18. Ireland being 3rd or 4th last in EU for organic prompts a query - Is there a link between MSs with low average farm incomes and failing to capitalise on the expanding, and higher margin, market for organic produce? A more rigorous review of the data is required to bottom out this question. However, the policy prescription to farmers in Ireland, namely to pile into the commodity milk market, where: • farmers are price takers based on global commodity availability (now c. 23 cents per litre, with slacking demand, e.g. from Asia), & • continued government promotion of volume instead of obtaining higher value & differentiated produce (e.g. organics) points to a government policy which places average farm incomes at high price risk.

19. Ireland also struggling on ammonia, with agriculture accounting for 98% such emissions Source: Eurostat

20. Across the EU there has been a 45% drop in farmland birds since 1990 Sources: EBCC , RSPB , BirdLife, Statistics Netherlands & Eurostat

21. Irish data mirrors the EU pictureSource: BirdWatchIreland

22. Just as we started to make life untenable for most farmland birds from the 1970s... Irish government action & inaction is orienting transport and agriculture to help make life untenable for humans, while knowing that Ireland stands some steps behind the front line consequences. Worse, the fallout from Irish government regression and obstructiveness isn’t confined to its own territory: • Ireland is actively lobbying at European level to delay, fudge and weaken post 2020 climate action, particularly on agriculture and, by extension, transport, as well as other areas subject to EU effort-sharing. • Weaker EU action has a global impact over time.

23. Questions / discussion Thank you