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Urban Flood & Climate Change ----information from APWMF and SIWW. Jinping LIU Hydrologist Typhoon Committee Secretariat. The Asia-Pacific Water Minister’s Forum (APWMF) June 28, 2010. Jointly organized by MEWR and PUB of Singapore , and in cooperation with APWF.

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Urban Flood & Climate Change

----information from APWMF and SIWW

Jinping LIU

Hydrologist

Typhoon Committee Secretariat


The Asia-Pacific Water Minister’s Forum (APWMF)

June 28, 2010

  • Jointly organized by MEWR and PUB of Singapore , and in cooperation with APWF.

  • Attended by Ministers and water leaders from 15 countries.

  • Themed ‘Water Security—Good Governance and Sustainable Solutions’.

  • Articulated the region’s water issues, policies and solutions.


Singapore International Water Week (SIWW)

June 28 ~July 1, 2010.

  • Inaugurated with 2nd World Cities Summit (WCS).

  • Themed ‘Sustainable Cities: Clean and Affordable Water’ for SIWW.

  • Themed ‘ Liveable & Sustainable Cities for the future’ for WCS.

Around 10,000 participants from more than 100 countries and regions.


Today’s presentation

  • Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk

  • Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk

  • Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change

  • Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk

  • Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk

  • Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change



Urbanization - Tsurumi River Basin

1958

Urbanization Rate

Population increased by 1.7 million in 40 years.

85% of the river basin urbanized.

It has become a typical urban river.

1975

1975

1995

1995

Natural Urban



Rainfall pattern is changed.

Heavy rainfall in a city of Japan (1990~1999)

Annual Precipitation in Macao in the period of 1901~2008


Hydrological response is changed
Hydrological response is changed.

  • Less infiltration

  • More runoff

  • Higher velocity

  • Shorter travel time

  • Higher peak flows

  • More frequent channel forming flow

  • Lower low flows

  • = Extremes


Flow increase time of concentration decrease
Flow Increase & Time of concentration Decrease

Present

70 mm/hr

Intensity mm/hr

frequency

1:50 yr

Past

1:10 yr

Discharge

20

60

duration

Time


Today’s presentation

  • Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk

  • Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk

  • Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change

  • Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk

  • Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk

  • Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change


Heavy Precipitation Events:

Frequency increases over most areas

Anomalies (%) of the global annual time series defined as the percentage change of contributions of very wet days from the base period average.

Kobe, Japan

2008

(Prof. Toshio Koike, The University of Tokyo )

IPCC AR4


IPCC AR4

Projected changes in extremes:

It is very likelythat heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.

> 90%


Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.


Ratio of Daily and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.10year Probable Rainfall between 50 years later according to A1B and the current, from 17 models

Average=1.2

(from 17 models)

Araki & Koike, 2008


Design Rainfall and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.

Design Hydrograph

Current Design Rainfall

Future Design Rainfall under

Climate Change

Discharge

(m^3/s)

1

1.2

Climate Change

Hydrological

Model

Current Climate

T


Design Flood Control and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.

Current Design

Future Design under

Climate Change

1:150

Uncertainty

Future under

climate change

Target Flood safety level

1:150

Basin wide measures

1:80

Current Flood safety level

1:80


Climate Change Impacts on Flood Control Plan and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.in Indonesia

10year Probable flood

50 years later

10year Probable floodCurrent Climate


Today’s presentation and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.

  • Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk

  • Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk

  • Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change

  • Urbanization Affecting Flood Risk

  • Climate Changes Affecting Flood Risk

  • Approaches: Adapting to Climate Change


  • In responding to Climate Change, investment for prevention under uncertain targets is extremely difficult, especially for developing countries.

  • The best option is to take an adaptive approach that build climate resilience into development strategies.

  • Adapting to What?

    • As the future is unknown, adaptation should be flexible, incremental and capable of incorporating changes based on new knowledge.

    • It should be a continuous process guided by sustainability concerns and address multiple needs.


End to End Approach on Climate Change Adaptation under uncertain targets is extremely difficult, especially for developing countries.

Socio-economical approach

Scientific approach

Engineering Approach

Climate models

Flood

Disaster potential

Adaptation options

Quantifying uncertainty

Current facility, plan, management

Water quantity and quality prediction

Early warning

Human

Behavior

Water allocation & cost

Impact assessment

Environ-ment

Information

Decision making

implementation

  • Innovative technology

  • Flood control

  • quality control

Multi-model ensemble (MME)

flood

Process

Study

Flood control system

ordinary water

Filed survey

Human life

Down-scaling

ground water

Economic

Behavior

Storage

Integrated

Observed Data Sets

Industry

Allocation policy

drought

Treatment

Basin-scale prediction of quantity & quality

Monitoring evaluation

Drought

Disaster potential

Land use

etc.

(Prof. Toshio Koike, The University of Tokyo )


CLIMATE PROOF under uncertain targets is extremely difficult, especially for developing countries.

ROTTERDAM ....

CLIMATE PROOF

ROTTERDAM 2025

Action

Implement

Road map

Monitoring

Assessment

Accessiblity

City Climate

Flood Management

Adaptive Building

Urban Water System

knowledge

CLIMATE PROOF

Rotterdam 2009

Rotterdam Climate Adaptation Strategy 1.0

Arnoud Molenaar


Concluding remarks
Concluding Remarks under uncertain targets is extremely difficult, especially for developing countries.

  • Climate Change, Urbanization and Urban migration are the greatest challenges for urban flood disaster risk reduction.

  • Flexible adaptive measures - adaptive adaptation - should be mainstreamed. Innovative holistic approaches based on risk assessment are needed to achieve this.

  • Urban flood is not isolate issue. UFRM should be integrated with holistic urban system.

  • Urban flood is a kind of resources. UFRM is not to simply discharge flood out side of city, but to promote the beneficial and abolish the harmful.


“The Shapers of New Asia” under uncertain targets is extremely difficult, especially for developing countries.

“They include YOU and ME….”

Thanks


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