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Decision Technologies – decision making in the networked environment

Decision Technologies – decision making in the networked environment. Ömer S. Benli, Ph.D. Internet. Surveying the Digital Future: How the PC and Internet Are Changing the World To download or to view the UCLA Internet Report: http://ccp.ucla.edu/pages/internet-report.asp.

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Decision Technologies – decision making in the networked environment

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  1. Decision Technologies – decision making in the networked environment Ömer S. Benli, Ph.D.

  2. Internet • Surveying the Digital Future: How the PC and Internet Are Changing the World • To download or to view the UCLA Internet Report: http://ccp.ucla.edu/pages/internet-report.asp

  3. Sizing the Internet http://www.cyveillance.com/web/downloads/Sizing_the_Internet.pdf

  4. Heavy information overload • the world's total yearly production of print, film, optical, and magnetic content would require roughly 1.5 billion gigabytes of storage. This is the equivalent of 250 megabytes per person for each man, woman, and child on earth. http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info/

  5. Worldwide information production (Economist Magazine, October, 2000)

  6. Hard drive cost per gigabyte http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info/charts/charts.html

  7. Evolution of IT: the networked environment

  8. Networked environment has • increased the speed, and • improved the accuracy of information availability for decision making.

  9. Searching on the Internet 25 to 50 terabytes of information http://www.press.umich.edu/jep/07-01/bergman.html

  10. Deep WEB 7,500 terabytes of information http://www.press.umich.edu/jep/07-01/bergman.html

  11. “Web Services”: the next big wave of technology • software applications that can find, link with, and talk to other applications over the Internet, sharing information and performing tasks without human intervention. • “When web services reach their full potential, they will change the way we do business.” http://www.accenture.com/xdoc/en/ideas/outlook/7.2002/web.pdf

  12. Decision Technologies • provide means for analysis and improvement of managerial decision processes, • Web-based ERP systems, • publicly accessible Internet-based optimizers and decision support systems.

  13. How the nature of business processes is affected • Contents • Delivery methods • Time spans • Organizational aspects

  14. With just a Web browser and no budget, anyone can • do statistical computations at StatPoint.com • solve optimization problems at NEOS Server for Optimization • Use Web-based educational software like WebGPSS

  15. Some examples • MarketSwitch real-time ad and productoffer placement for Web advertisers and e-commerce sites. • OptiBid helps shippers conduct periodic bid events with their transportation providers to easily and quickly contract for needed freight-hauling capacity and service, at lower rates.

  16. “Why the Decision Making in the Digital Economy Needs Decision Technologies” • Cope with the data deluge • Cope with complexity • Cope with uncertainty, manage risk • Experiment without risk to organization • Automate recurrent decisions Geoffrion & Krishnan, OR in the E-Business Era

  17. Speed of Computers http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm

  18. Why total enumeration does not work:Curse of dimensionality!

  19. A simple scheduling problem 50 JOBS MACH 1 MACH 2

  20. A simple scheduling problem 50 JOBS MACH 1 MACH 2

  21. A simple scheduling problem 50 JOBS MACH 1 MACH 2

  22. A simple scheduling problem 50 JOBS MACH 1 MACH 2

  23. Consider a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

  24. With a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

  25. With a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

  26. With a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

  27. About ten billion years ago, the Universe began in a gigantic explosion - the Hot Big Bang! http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/gr/public/bb_home.html

  28. About ten billion years ago, the Universe began in a gigantic explosion - the Hot Big Bang!

  29. Fastest computer in the world: NEC’s “Earth Simulator” 40 trillion = 40,000,000,000,000,000 operations/sec http://www.nec.co.jp/press/en/0203/0801.html

  30. With a computer that can execute 40 trillion calculations per second:

  31. Clearly the total enumeration (brute force computing)is not the answer! • “Johnson’s Algorithm” solves this problem optimally by sorting the processing times in increasing order, and assigning jobs according to a simple rule.

  32. Decision technologies complement information technologies in the design of efficient and effective information systems for managerial decision making.

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