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人民币

人民币. 庞大的外汇储备 :$8 400 亿 ; 惊人的人民币存款 : 18 万亿 ; 势不可挡的 FDI: $600 亿 / 年 ; 全球加工厂 : 2 亿劳动力 / 全球产业转移 ; 国富民穷 .( 教育的贫穷是最大的贫穷 ) 刚性的汇率 , 不良的金融体制 , 贸易体制 . 一府两会. Valuation of Bonds. Chapter 6. objectives. 1.    Distinguish between different kinds of bonds.

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人民币

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  1. 人民币 庞大的外汇储备:$8 400亿; 惊人的人民币存款: 18万亿; 势不可挡的FDI: $600亿/年; 全球加工厂:2亿劳动力/全球产业转移; 国富民穷.(教育的贫穷是最大的贫穷) 刚性的汇率, 不良的金融体制,贸易体制. 一府两会.

  2. Valuation of Bonds Chapter 6

  3. objectives • 1.   Distinguish between different kinds of bonds. • 2.    Explain the more popular features of bonds. • 3.    Define the term value as used for several different purposes. • 4.    Describe the basic process for valuing assets. • 5.    Estimate the value of a bond. • 6.    Compute a bondholder’s expected rate of return. • 7.    Explain three important relationships that exist in bond valuation.

  4. Types of bonds Terminology and Characteristics of bonds Definitions of Value Valuation: The Basic Process Bond Valuation The Bondholder’s Expected Rate of Return(Yield to Maturity) Bond Valuation :Three Important Relationships

  5. Why marketable bonds? Multiple financing instruments Monopoly vs Diversification Market oriented vs centrally planning oriented

  6. bond • A bondis a type of debt or long-term promissory note(期票), issued by the borrower, promising to pay its holder a predetermined and fixed amount of interest per year. 1. Debentures:公司债券 2. Subordinated debentures 3. Mortgage bonds 4. Eurobonds 5. Zero and very low coupon bonds 6 Junk bonds

  7. CHARACTERISTICS OF BONDS 1. Claims on assets and income 2. Par value 3. Coupon interest rate 4. Maturity 5. Indenture(契约) 6. Current yield 7. Bond ratings

  8. Claims on assets and income Interest and dividends leads to Insolvency: • Bonds • Common stock • Preferred stock

  9. Par value Par value of a bond: a face value that is returned to the bondholder at maturity. Denomination: $1 000 Quotation: 101.375%

  10. Coupon interest rate Coupon interest rate: Indicator of the percentage of the par value of the bond that will be paid out annually in the form of interest. For example: Interest rate:8% Par: $1 000 8% x $1 000 = $80.00

  11. Maturity Length time to redeem the bonds. For example: 3 years 10 years 30 years

  12. Indenture(契约) Legal agreement: Between issuing companies and bond trustee who represents the bondholders. Common provisions : • Prohibitions on the sale of accounts receivable • Constraints on the issuance of common stock dividends • Restrictions on the purchase or sale of fixed assets • Constraints on additional borrowing

  13. Current yield Current yield =(annual interest payment)/(market price of the bond) =(0.08*$1,000)/ $700 = $80/$700=0.114=11.4%

  14. Standard and Poor’s Corporate Bond Ratings AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC C

  15. CUR NET BONDS YLD VOL CLOSE CHG Caterplnc 6s07 6.8 49 88 + ChsCp 8s04 7.9 1 101 - ChsCp 608 6.8 8 89 - CPWV 713 7.8 30 93 - Chiquta 1004 10.5 3 100 -1 ChckFul 7s12 cv 65 84 -1 Chryslr 10.4s99 10.0 61 104 - Chryslr 10.95s17 10.0 8 109 …

  16. Economic Influencing on bonds 1. Interest fluctuation 2. Stock pricing 3. Exchange rates • Inflation • deflation

  17. DEFINITIONS OF VALUE 1 Book value 2 Liquidation value 3 Market value 4 intrinsic or economic value = fair valueefficient market

  18. BOND VALUATION V =

  19. Par value (M): $1 000 Coupon interest rate: 12% Maturity: 5 years Expected return: 12% ( 9%/10%/12%/15%) Vb ?

  20. EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN (YIELD TO MATURITY) 7% 8% • PRESENT VALUE PRESENT PRESENT VALUE PRESE YEARS CASH FLOW FACTORS VALUE FACTor VALUE 1-10 $90 per year 7.024 $ 632.16 6.710 $603.90 10 $1000 in year 10 0.508 508.00 0.463 $463.00 • Present value $1,140.16 Present value $1,066.90 • at 7% at 8%

  21. Par value (M): $1 000 Coupon interest rate: 12% Maturity: 5 years Expected return: 12% ( 9%/10%/12%/15%) Vb ?

  22. 12% Vb=$120(PVIFA12%,5yr)+$l,000(PVIF12%,5 yr) Vb=$120 (3.605) + $l,000 (0.567) =$432.60 + $567.00 =$999.60≌$1,000,00

  23. PVIFAK,n = (1/k) [( 1 – 1/(1+k)n]

  24. 15% • from 12 percept to 15 percent, Vb=$120(PVIFA15%,5yr)+ ,000(PVIF15%,5 yr) Vb=$120 (3.352) + $l,000 (0.497) =$402.24 + $497.00 • =$899.24

  25. How can you determine15%?

  26. 9% • Vb=$120(PVIFA9%,5 yr) + $l,000(PⅥF9%,5 yr) • Vb=$120 (3.890) + $l,000 (0.650) • =$466.80 + $650.00 =$1,116.80

  27. RELATIONSHIPS • We have now learned to find the value of a bond (Vb), • (1)the mount of interest payment (It), • (2)the maturity value (M), • (3)the length of time to maturity (n years), and • (4)the investor’s required rate of return, kb. • expected rate of return (kb),.

  28. required rate > coupon rate,market value < par value • 15％ > 12％ ,then $899.24 <$l,000 • discount bond. • required rate < coupon rate, market value > par value • 9％ < 12％ , then $1,1 16.18 >$1,000 • premium bond.

  29. 12% COUPON-RATE MARKET VALUE FOR A 12% COUPON-RATE BOND MATURING IN REOUIRED RATE 5 YEARS 10 YEARS 9% $1,116.80 $1,192.16 12 1,000.00 1,000.00 15 899.24 849.28

  30. 5个融资阶段 “繁荣—低谷—高峰—衰退—恢复”的规律。 5个融资发展阶段 50年代:内部融资时期； 60年代:租赁时期， 70年代:高峰时期； 80年代:倒退； 90年代后期:恢复期。

  31. 内部融资时代 • 世界航运市场:航运业庞大的营业现金流 • 举债:经营无方 • 英国船东: 仅有16% • 找到可以获利的项目来投资。

  32. 融资租赁时代 日本经济的起步:融资方式的变革。 规模经济:中型和大型化 银行业:开展了与航运业的合作。 过低成本的“方便旗”: 船厂造船， 租赁给船公司， 银行接受船舶抵押。 船舶运量达到了9000万吨之多。 日本、香港的船东发展到了极致。

  33. 高峰时期 造船热潮,大肆造船。 贸易增长迅速， 只要有了船就有了生意， 1973年达到了1.2亿吨（图3）。 1973年的石油危机，彻底粉碎了这一造船梦想。最大的崩溃。

  34. 衰退时期 航运界对船队进行了大规模的削减， 到1984年，世界上将近四分之一的货轮宣布退休（如图4所示）。 银行业的非理性行为，加剧了这场灾难。 1983——1987四年间，船东拖欠贷款达100亿美元之多， 银行彻底取消整个航运投资，

  35. OBJECTIVE 1 a variety of types of bonds, including • ·Debentures • ·Subordinated debentures • ·Mortgage bonds • ·Eurobonds • ·Zero and very low coupon bonds • ·Junk bonds

  36. OBJECTIVE 2 • characteristics that you might hear about bonds include the following: • ·Claims on assets and income • ·Par value • ·Coupon interest rate • ·Maturity • ·Indenture • ·Current yield • ·Bond ratings

  37. 恢复时代 十年中，重新投入两千亿美元。 航运业呼唤新的投融资方式。 债券成为组成的绝大部分， 而另一部分则是权益， 第三部分是政府的造船贷款。 每年20亿美元增加到20世纪90年代末的每年近100亿美元。 航运辛迪加越来越大，却越来越不容易管理。，德国政府担保的银行对造船业贷款超过5000亿美元。

  38. Convertible bonds Theory and practise

  39. 可兑换证券 • 可兑换证券是指可以在规定的期限内转换为一定股票数量的证券。 • 《可转换公司债券管理暂行办法》 • 转换期限为梯度式， • 如果因股票价格上扬，兑换成股票，那么这类投资者就成为公司的股东。

  40. 所有权、股息和风险 可兑换证券具有期权的可选择性， 可兑换证券价格低于:3%～15％之间。 多数债券公司的股价在发行债券后上扬了许多，从而使投资者获得高额利润。 可兑换债券给企业带来了巨大的回旋余地，

  41. 涨价前（美元） 涨价后 股 价 5 15 融资额(亿美元) 1 1 流通股（万股） 2 000 666 表1

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